On Monday 12th: Australia’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute's Consumer Sentiment index is due.
On Tuesday 13th: The NAB Business Confidence Index for Australia is released, along with UK Employment data, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany and US Inflation figures.
On Wednesday 14th: The UK publishes its Inflation data, while Japan releases its GDP figures.
On Thursday 15th: Australian Employment figures are due, as well as the UK’s GDP, Retail Sales from the US, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index for New York.
On Friday 16th: UK Retail Sales, French Inflation data, US Building Permits and the PPI, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment Index are all due.
Weekly outlook
Inflation data is the dominant theme of this week's economic releases to watch. Figures from the US, and the UK will hopefully provide a fuller picture of what direction the Federal Reserve and Bank of England will move with interest rates. Both banks will be looking to make sure the job of getting inflation back to target is fully complete before cutting rates, but pressure is understandably mounting from borrowers.
Another week of earnings will also keep investors on their toes. Keep an eye out for Coca-Cola, as it puts its score card out on Tuesday before the market opens. In that report, analysts at Zacks Investment Research anticipate the company to earn $0.48 per share, which represents a 6.67% year over year increase. The latest average sales estimate is $10.63 billion, up 5.02% from last quarter.
Monday 12th of February
After rising 2.7% in December 2023, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute's Consumer Sentiment index for Australia dropped 1.3% to 81 in January 2024. When the new data for February is due at 11:30 PM GMT, a further drop of around 0.8% is expected to 80.4.
Major Earnings Release:
● Michelin
Tuesday 13th of February
The NAB business confidence index for Australia is due today from 12:30 AM GMT. The index rose to -1 in December from a corrected downwards reading of -8 the month prior. Despite the third consecutive month of negative readings, this was the weakest due to a recovery in the retail and mining industries.
Employment data for the UK is due at 7:00 AM GMT today. Revised data revealed that the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.9% in the three months to November 2023, the lowest level since February to April 2023. Expectations are for this to rise back to 4% for the three months to December 2023 figure. Meanwhile, the number of employed people increased by 108 thousand to 33.1 million in the three months leading up to November 2023, and around 75 thousand more are expected to be added in the three months to December 2023.
In January this year, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased by 2.4 points to +15.2, above the +12 market consensus. Being the highest rating since February, this indicates a positive change in respondents' economic forecasts for the largest economy in Europe, with over half expecting interest rate decreases from the ECB in the first half of the year. The updated figure is due to be released at 10:00 AM GMT.
US Inflation data is due today from 1:30 PM GMT. The US's headline annual inflation rate increased to 3.4% in December 2023 from a five-month low of 3.1% in November, above 3.2% market expectations due to a slower decline in gasoline costs. This is forecast to remain at 3.4% for January. Meanwhile, the Core Rate, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to fall to around 3.7% from 3.9%.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Coca-Cola
● Shopify
● Airbnb
● Moody’s
● Marriott
● AIG
● Randstad
Wednesday 14th of February
The UK will publish their most recent Inflation data today. In December 2023, the UK's annual inflation rate unexpectedly increased to 4% from a nearly two-year low of 3.9% in November. This is the first rise in inflation in 10 months, with the price of alcohol and tobacco contributing the most to the increase. Core Inflation, which currently sits at 5.1%, stalled last month above forecasts. The updated figures will be released at 7:00 AM GMT.
In Q3 of 2023, the Japanese economy fell 0.7% quarter over quarter, down from a downwardly revised 0.9% growth in Q2 and a flash number of a 0.5% decline. It was the first GDP decline since Q3 of 2022. The Preliminary report is expected to show a 0.3% growth when the data is released at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Cisco
● Essilor International
● CME Group
● Heineken
● Kraft Heinz
● Sony
● Capgemini
Thursday 15th of February
Australian Employment figures are due at 12:30 AM GMT this morning. In December 2023, Australia's seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate was 3.9%, which was in line with predictions and remained constant from the 18-month high in November. Expectations are for a slight bump to 4.0% for January. Meanwhile, after employment in Australia decreased by over 65 thousand in December of 2023, forecasts are for around 15 thousand new jobs to be added for January this year.
UK GDP data is expected to be released at 7:00 AM GMT today. Contrary to expectations for a flat result, the British economy shrank 0.1% quarter over quarter in Q3 2023. The preliminary report is expected to show a flat reading for the final quarter of 2023.
Following a 0.3% increase in November and above expectations of 0.4%, US Retail Sales surged 0.6% month-over-month in December 2023. Forecasts for January suggest further growth of around 0.2% when the data is published at 1:30 PM GMT.
January 2024 saw the Empire State Manufacturing Index for New York plummet to -43.7, the state's lowest rating since May 2020, indicating a precipitous decline in manufacturing activity. When the new figures come out at 1:30 PM GMT, the expectation is that this will improve to around -19.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Airbus Group
● Safran
● Schneider Electric
● Stellantis
● Pernod Ricard
● Orange
● Legrand
● Renault
● Euronext
Friday 16th of February
UK Retail Sales will be released today from 7:00 AM GMT. Following a corrected 0.2% gain the month before and falling short of the market consensus of 1.1% growth, sales in the UK decreased by 2.4% year over year in December 2023. A 2.0% decline is expected for January.
According to early estimates, annual consumer price inflation in France slowed to 3.1% in January 2024 from 3.7% the previous month. Falling from 7.2% in December to 5.7% in January, food inflation hit its lowest level in almost a year and a half. The Preliminary figure is expected to be confirmed today at 7:45 AM GMT.
In December 2023, the number of US Building Permits issued increased by 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.493 million, up from 1.467 million in November and higher than the earlier estimate of 1.495 million. When the Preliminary January figures are released at 1:30 PM GMT, an estimated 1.50 million permits will have been issued.
Similar to November, US producer prices fell 0.1% month over month in December 2023 against predictions of a 0.1% increase. Diesel fuel costs fell 12.4% but petrol prices rose 2.1%, leading to a 0.4% reduction in goods cost for the third straight quarter. The new data, released today at 1:30 PM GMT, is forecast to show 0.1% growth for January.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised up to 79 in January this year from 78.9 before, the highest level since July 2021. A slight increase to 79.5 is forecast for the February result, due at 3:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● ENI
● Eutelsat
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