On Tuesday 23rd: German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash and other PMI figures
On Wednesday 24th: Australian Inflation Rate, German Ifo Business Climate and American Durable Goods Orders
On Thursday 25th: German GfK Consumer Confidence and American GDP Growth Rate
On Friday 26th: Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision, American Core PCE Price Index, American Personal Income and American Personal Spending
Monday 22nd of April
Major Earnings Releases:
● SAP
● Verizon
Tuesday 23rd of April
Despite a slight upward revision to 41.9 in March 2024 from an initial estimate of 41.6, the HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI continues to paint a concerning picture. Compared to February's reading of 42.5, the index reflects a deterioration in manufacturing conditions - the steepest decline in the past 5 months.
The survey revealed faster rates of decline in both employment and stocks of purchases, suggesting a slowdown in production and potential workforce reductions. However, supplier delivery times have exhibited a steep and accelerated improvement. This could indicate easing supply chain constraints in the near future.
Manufacturers remain optimistic about the next 12 months, despite the current challenges, anticipating a potential rebound in the coming year. The data for the German PMI of April was released at 07:30 AM GMT.
To gauge economic activity across Europe, traders will also be keeping an eye on Flash PMI readings for manufacturing and services sectors in France, the eurozone, and the United Kingdom.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Deutsche Boerse
● General Electric
● General Motors
● Halliburton
● Kering
● Lockheed Martin
● Mattel
● Novartis
● Pepsico
● Philip Morris
● Renault
● Tesla
● UPS
● Visa
Wednesday 24th of April
Australia's inflation appears to be cooling down, offering some relief to consumers and policymakers. The inflation rate for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023 reached 4.1%, a significant decrease from 5.4% in the previous quarter. This positive trend even surpassed market expectations of 4.3%. This marks the lowest inflation rate since Q4 of 2021.
Digging deeper, the data reveals a slowdown in both goods and services inflation. Goods inflation, which measures the price changes of tangible products, has been easing for five consecutive quarters, dropping from 4.9% in Q3 to 3.8% in Q4. Services inflation, which tracks the cost of services like rent or haircuts, has also shown signs of moderation, declining from 5.8% in Q3 to 4.6% in Q4.
Despite the positive trend, inflation still remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2-3% and market participants are forecasting a further decline in inflation for the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, with expectations set at 3.4%. The official data for Q1 inflation is scheduled for release at 01:30 AM GMT.
German business confidence is on the rise, with the Ifo Business Climate indicator experiencing a jump in March 2024. The index surged to 87.8, surpassing the revised February figure of 85.7 and exceeding market expectations of 86.0. This also marks the highest level of optimism for Europe's largest economy since June 2023.
Anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) is fueling a more optimistic outlook. Additionally, there are signs that inflationary pressures might be gradually easing, further boosting business sentiment. Companies are less pessimistic about the coming months compared to previous assessments, and their evaluation of the current business situation also reflects a less gloomy perspective.
Market participants are forecasting a further rise in the German Ifo Business Climate for April to 88.9 when the data is released at 08:00 AM GMT.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States rebounded in February 2024 with orders rising by 1.4% month-over-month and exceeding market expectations of a more modest 1.1% increase. This positive development comes after a downward revision to January's data, which revealed a steeper-than-anticipated decline of 6.9%.
However, the outlook for March remains uncertain, as market participants are currently forecasting a decrease in durable goods orders, with expectations set at -1.2% in March when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Air Liquide
● AT&T
● Boeing
● Carrefour
● Eni
● Ford
● IBM
● Meta
● Michelin
● Orange
Thursday 25th of April
German consumer confidence shows a hesitant improvement, but significant challenges remain. The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator edged up to -27.4 heading into April 2024, a modest improvement from the revised -28.8 in the previous month. This is the highest reading so far this year, fueled by slightly better expectations for income and the overall economic outlook. However, market forecasts were for a slightly less negative number at -27.9.
Despite the small uptick, German consumers remain cautious. Their willingness to spend has barely changed and sits at a very low level, the lowest in nearly two years. On the other hand, the desire to save has declined slightly, but remains very high. This suggests consumers are prioritising financial security over spending, potentially due to a lack of confidence in the near future and the overall pace of Germany's economic recovery.
Investors are watching closely for further signs of improvement. The next release of the GfK Consumer Confidence data for May is scheduled for 06:00 AM GMT.
The final estimate for US economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 paints a slightly brighter picture than initially expected. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.4%, a modest upward revision from the previously reported 3.2%. This positive growth was driven by two key factors: consumer spending and non-residential business investment. Both categories were revised higher in the final estimate.
However, government spending rose more than initially reported, suggesting some stimulus for the economy. On the other hand, both exports and imports grew at a slower pace than first anticipated. This could indicate a potential slowdown in global trade activity. Additionally, the drag from private inventories, which represents the change in the value of unsold goods held by businesses, was much larger than expected. This could suggest businesses are becoming more cautious about future demand.
Despite the final figures for Q4 showing some positive signs, market participants are forecasting a slowdown in economic growth for the first quarter of 2024. They anticipate a GDP growth rate of 2.8%, down from Q4's 3.4% when the Q1 GDP growth data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Alphabet
● Amazon
● AstraZeneca
● Caterpillar
● Dassault Systemes
● Deutsche Bank
● Hermès
● Intel
● Merck
● Microsoft
● Nestle
● Pernod Ricard
● Saint-Gobain
● Sanofi
● STMicroElectronics
● Unilever
● Union Pacific
● Vinci
Friday 26th of April
In a historic shift, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ended its eight-year negative interest rates area in March 2024. The central bank raised its key short-term rate for the first time in 17 years to a range of 0% to 0.1%. This decision comes as inflation has surpassed the BoJ's 2% target for over a year, and the nation's largest companies recently agreed to their biggest wage hike in over three decades (5.28%).
Market participants anticipate the BoJ to maintain its current interest rate of 0% when the decision is released at 04:00 AM GMT.
Inflationary pressures in the United States continued to rise in February 2024, albeit at a slightly slower pace than the previous month. Core PCE prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.3% from January. This follows an upwardly revised 0.5% rise in January, marking the highest one-year increase since the start of the year. The February reading aligned with market expectations.
However, when compared year-over-year, core PCE prices showed a slight moderation. They rose by 2.8% in February, down from a revised 2.9% increase in January, which suggests that inflation might be peaking, although it remains above the Federal Reserve's target level.
Market participants are forecasting a flat reading for the core PCE price index in March at 0.3% when the official data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Personal income growth in the United States slowed down in February 2024. Income rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, marking a significant deceleration from January's one-year high of 1%. This increase fell slightly short of market expectations, which were set at 0.4%.
The rise in personal income was driven by two factors: higher compensation (wages and salaries) and increased government transfer receipts (such as social security benefits). However, these gains were partially offset by a decline in income received from assets like investments.
Despite the slowdown, market participants are predicting a slight rebound in personal income growth for March, with expectations set at 0.4% when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
US consumer spending surged in February 2024, marking its strongest performance since January 2023. Spending rose by a robust 0.8% month-over-month, exceeding both the January increase of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.5%.
The surge was driven primarily by increased spending on services. However, after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending showed a more modest gain of 0.4%, which suggests that rising prices might be eroding some of the purchasing power of consumers.
Despite the positive February data, market participants are forecasting a slowdown in spending for March, as they anticipate a decrease of 0.3% when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● AbbVie
● Aon
● Chevron
● Colgate-Palmolive
● Exxon-Mobil
● Safran
● Total Energies
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