On Monday 20th: Germany's monthly Producer Prices are due.
On Tuesday 21st: The RBA releases its Monetary Policy Minutes, Canada reports its Inflation figures, and US Existing Home Sales are due.
On Wednesday 22nd: The Fed releases its Monetary Policy Minutes, the US releases its Durable Goods Orders data, and the Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs are due for Australia.
On Thursday 23rd: Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for France, Germany, the EU and the UK.
On Friday 24th: Japanese Inflation figures are due, along with Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for Japan and the US, and Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index is released.
Weekly outlook
The key highlight of the week unfolded with the release of American inflation figures, revealing a deceleration in inflation that ignited optimism among investors, suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) might have concluded its series of rate hikes. This development has, in turn, provided substantial support for a rally in the stock market over the past couple of days.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, attention is likely to shift towards the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures from various economies. Additionally, market participants will eagerly anticipate insights from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes and the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes.
These events are anticipated to play a crucial role in shaping market sentiments and influencing investment decisions next week, especially following this week’s market acceleration.
Monday 20th of November
Germany's monthly Producer Price Inflation dropped from 0.3% in August to -0.2% in September. The new report is due for release today at 07:00 AM GMT.
Tuesday 21st of November
The RBA is due to release its Monetary Policy Meeting minutes today from 12:30 AM GMT. After keeping the cash rate at 4.1% for four consecutive sessions, the bank increased it in November by 25 basis points to 4.35%. As inflation continues to persist longer than predicted in recent months due to a further increase in service prices, interest rates have now risen to their highest level since January 2011.
Canada's annual inflation rate fell from 4% in August to 3.8% in September; less than the 4% predicted by the market. When the newest results are published at 1:30 PM GMT, expectations are for a drop to around 3.3%. Meanwhile, core inflation has also been trending downwards and is forecast to drop further from 2.8% to around 2.6% year over year.
US Existing Home Sales numbers are set to be published today from 03:00 PM GMT. Home sales declined 2% from the previous month to 3.96 million units in September, the lowest since October 2010. The figure was marginally above market projections of 3.89 million units. The fall was consistent with previous releases for the period, as rising mortgage rates deter first-time buyers and restrict homeowners from selling houses locked in lowest rates. Expectations are for a further decline to around 3.93 million for October.
The Federal Reserve is due to release its FOMC Monetary Policy Minutes today at 07:00 PM GMT. For the second month in a row in November, the Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5%, a 22-year high that reflects policymakers' dual emphasis on achieving their 2% inflation objective while avoiding undue monetary tightening.
Major Earnings Releases:
● NVIDIA (NVDA)
● Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
● Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Wednesday 22nd of November
In September, new orders for manufactured durable goods in the US jumped 4.7% from the previous month, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1%, and marking the largest monthly rise in orders for long-lasting items since July 2020. The October report, due at 01:30 PM GMT, is expected to show another reversal to around -3%.
The Flash Manufacturing, Service, and Composite PMIs for Australia will be published at 10:00 PM. While the Manufacturing PMI number is expected to decelerate, the Service and Composite PMI numbers are anticipated to be better than last month. Nevertheless, all of them are projected to remain below the 50 level, indicating a contraction.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Elior Group (ELIOR)
Thursday 23rd of November
A host of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are anticipated for release across the day today from several countries including France, Germany, the EU and the UK among others. Numbers across the board have recently shown both industries in contraction and forecasts reflect the same trend.
Friday 24th of November
The annual inflation rate in Japan declined to 3.0% in September from 3.2% in the previous month, pointing to the lowest level since September 2022. Forecasts, however, have the rate increasing to around 3.2% again when the report is released at 12:30 AM GMT. The core rate is also expected to rise for October to 2.9% from 2.8%.
With a reading of 86.9 in October, the Ifo Business Climate index for Germany was above market expectations of 84.9 for the first time in six months, indicating businesses have generally become more optimistic about their future outlooks and existing conditions. The latest data is due for release at 09:00 AM GMT.
Japan and the US are also due to release their Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs across the day for November today. Both countries have been maintaining stronger numbers than much of their peers indicating growth in both industries and forecasts are for further growth this month.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Gap (GPS)
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