On Tuesday 17th: China releases GDP and Industrial Production data, UK employment figures are due, CPI data for Germany and Canada will be published and the NY State Manufacturing Index is released from the US. Germany publishes ZEW survey results.
On Wednesday 18th: UK and EU CPI will be published, Retail Sales and PPI data for the US is due and the Bank of Japan meets on Monetary Policy.
On Thursday 19th: The Australian Employment figures are released, US Building Permits and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are also due.
On Friday 20th: UK and Canadian Retail Sales are due, and Existing Home Sales for the US will be published.
Weekly outlook
It's a big week for markets next week with plenty of news and data releases. From major company earnings to monetary policy meetings and updates on key inflation and GDP data, there's plenty of action to keep investors busy.
The UK and EU will be anticipating their CPI releases and the impact results will have on the next monetary policy meetings scheduled for the 2nd of February. Despite a drop in wholesale energy prices in recent weeks and an economy on the verge of recession, the Bank of England's top economist lately cautioned that high rates of inflation might linger in the UK for longer than predicted. At the same time, price pressures and economic headwinds are causing economists to believe that the EU will continue raising interest rates for months to come.
Tuesday 17th of January
02:00 GMT- Quarterly and Annualized GDP for Q4- China: Quarterly GDP is expected to have dropped from 3.9% to -0.8% over the previous quarter, while the yearly GDP being down 1.8% compared to the previous year’s 3.9% for Q4. Economists expect China’s recovery from Covid policies may ramp up into 2023.
02:00 GMT- Annualised Industrial Production for December- China: Industrial Production measures the change in the total value of what factories, quarries, and utilities make, taking inflation into account. Expectations are for a drop from 2.2% to 0.8% compared to the previous month.
07:00 GMT- Average Earnings + Bonus Payments November- UK: The Average Earnings Index tracks commercial and government labor costs, including bonuses. Average Earnings show monthly personal income growth and possible inflationary pressures. Last month’s growth was below expectations of 6.2% but still showed growth at 6.1%.
07:00 GMT- Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate December- UK: Claimant Change is the monthly change in U.K. unemployment benefits. Rising trends suggest labor market fragility. Last month’s 30.5K was well above the expected 3.5K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.
07:00 GMT- Monthly and Annualised CPI for December- Germany: Inflation is expected to be remaining stagnant at 8.6% for the year and -0.8% compared to last month.
10:00 GMT- ZEW Current Conditions January- Germany: The survey shows the net percentage of positive and negative answers given by financial analysts from banks, insurance companies, and large industrial enterprises about what they think will happen to the economy in the next six months. For example, the result will be +10 if 40% of people think the economy will get better and 30% think it will get worse. Some improvement is expected this month from -61.4 to -57.
10:00 GMT- ZEW Economic Sentiment January- Germany: The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures six-month economic outlook according to a survey of 350 German institutional investors and analysts. Optimism is recorded as being above zero, while pessimism for the outlook is shown as below 0. An increase from -23.3 to -15.5 is forecast for January.
13:30 GMT- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for January- US: New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index measures business conditions according to around 200 survey results. Conditions are said to be improving above zero and deteriorating below 0. Expectations are for an increase from -11.2 to -4.5 this month.
13:30 GMT- Monthly and Annualised Core CPI for December- Canada: December figures were flat compared to November. Economists will be hoping for a drop from the current 5.8% this month.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Morgan Stanley
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc
- United Airlines Holdings Inc
Wednesday 18th of January
3:00 GMT- BOJ Interest Rate Decision- Japan: Speculation has been rife as to whether the bank will end its historical negative rates, but expectations are that the overnight rate will remain at -0.10%.
07:00 GMT- Monthly and Annualised CPI for December- UK: CPI for the UK is expected to have increased again slightly from 10.7% to 10.9% annually and 0.6% compared to 0.4% from November.
07:00 GMT- Annualised Core CPI for December- EU: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks consumer price changes excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The forecast is for an unchanged figure of 5.2%.
07:00 GMT- Monthly and Annualised CPI for December- EU: Inflation is expected to be remaining stagnant at 9.2% for the year and down from -0.1% to -0.3% compared to last month.
13:30 GMT- Monthly Core Retail Sales for December- US: Sales excluding automobiles are expected to remain steady at -0.2%.
13:30 GMT- Monthly PPI for December- US: The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks input costs for raw, semi-finished, and completed products and services. Producers and consumers will generally share rising input prices. A drop from 0.3% to 0.2% is anticipated.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Charles Schwab Corp
- Prologis Inc
- PNC Financial Services Group Inc
Thursday 19th of January
00:30 GMT- Employment Change and Unemployment Rate December- Australia: Employment Change details the change in the number of Australians who are employed. Employment and the revenue it generates is a key element in consumer spending. A drop from 64.0K to 19.0K is forecast, while the Unemployment rate is set to remain at 3.4%.
13:30 GMT- Building Permits for December- US: The change in the number of new construction licenses granted by the government is what the Building Permits metric tracks and monitors. Like much of the housing industry in the US, growth has been consistently dropping for many months. A forecast of 1.380M is an improvement on last month's figure, but is still low compared to the last few years.
13:30 GMT- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January- US: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index evaluates business conditions among Federal Reserve district manufacturers according to around 250 surveys. The index shows improvement above 0 and worsening conditions below 0. Expectations are for an increase from -13.8 to -9.5.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Procter and Gamble Co
- Netflix, Inc
- Truist Financial Corp
Friday 20th of January
07:00 GMT- Monthly and Annualised Retail Sales for December- UK: Retail Sales measures national retail sales value change. Consumer spending is one of the main drives of the economy. An increase from -5.9% to -5.6% is expected.
13:30 GMT- Monthly Core Retail Sales for November- Canada: Retail Sales measures the national retail sales value change (excluding automobile sales) and is a perfect gauge of consumer spending, which drives the economy. Expectations are for a drop of 0.5% from 1.7% the previous month.
15:00 GMT- Existing Home Sales for December- US: Existing Home Sales tracks the monthly change in annualized sales of existing residential structures. Numbers have been declining for months and the last time sales were this slow was July 2020 in the midst of the lockdowns. The forecast is for 3.96M down from 4.09M the previous month.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Sandvik AB
- Schlumberger Ltd
- State Street Corp
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