On Monday 9th: German Industrial Production is due and Japanese Core CPI figures.
On Tuesday 10th: Riksbank's International Symposium hosts a number of Central Bankers including Tiff Macklem and Jerome Powell.
On Wednesday 11th: Australian Retail Sales figures are published.
On Thursday 12th: US CPI figures are released.
On Friday 13th: UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data are released, Spanish CPI, EU Industrial Production and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey are all published.
Weekly outlook
The world is largely returning back to work from the holiday break this week, and while economic activity is still ramping up to normal levels there are a few noteworthy developments this week that will impact on the direction of Central Bank monetary policy meetings that will take place in the coming month or so.
Many investors will eagerly be watching the US CPI figures and Jerome Powell’s public appearance this week for insight into the next FOMC meeting coming up on the 31st January/1st February. According to internal deliberations at the Fed's policy meeting three weeks ago, no Federal Reserve officials believed it would be acceptable to start decreasing rates in 2023, and policymakers were concerned easing financial conditions may hinder the central bank's attempts to bring down inflation.
Monday 9th of January
07:00 GMT- Monthly Industrial Production November- Germany: The change in the total value of output that manufacturers, quarries, and utilities generated is what is measured by German Industrial Production, and this number is adjusted for inflation. Expectations are for an increase from -0.1% to 0.1% for the month of November.
23:30 GMT- Annualised CPI December- Japan: Core consumer prices in the Tokyo metropolitan region are tracked by the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Since the core rate does not include the highly variable component of fresh food, the Central bank pays close attention to this statistic in its job of preserving price stability. Forecasts are for a rise from 3.6% to 3.8% which may prompt some to call for a change to the consistent policy of negative interest rates by the BOJ.
Tuesday 10th of January
10:10 GMT- Public Speech BOC Governor Tiff Macklem- Canada: The Bank’s Governor is slated to participate in the Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence with a focus on climate change.
As head of the central bank, which sets short-term interest rates, he has extraordinary control over the national currency. Investors eagerly follow his public appearances because he regularly hints at monetary policy changes.
13:00 GMT- Public Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell- US: Powell is also due to speak at the Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence with a focus on the mandate of the Central Bank.
Wednesday 11th of January
00:30 GMT-.Monthly Retail Sales November- Australia: The change in retail sales is a measure of the total value of Retail Sales across the country. As consumer spending makes up the bulk of the economy, this figure is highly indicative of its health. October showed a monthly decline of 0.2%, but in comparison to the previous October it had shown growth of 12.5%. November 2022 is expected to show growth of 0.5% on the previous month.
Thursday 12th of January
13:30 GMT- Core Monthly and Annualised CPI December- US: Prices of goods and services, excluding those related to food and energy, are tracked by the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal Reserve pays greater attention to core inflation than to the more volatile total inflation because of its belief that it is a better indication of underlying price pressures. December is expected to show an increase of 0.3% up from 0.2% the previous month, while the annualized rate for December is expected to have dropped slightly to 5.9% from 6%.
13:30 GMT- Monthly and Annualised CPI December- US: Using a representative sample of products and services purchased by consumers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculates an overall price change. The December rate is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month at 0.1%, while the annualized rate is forecast for a decent drop from 7.1% to 6.7%.
Friday 13th of January
7:00 GMT- Monthly Industrial and Manufacturing Production November- Great Britain: The value of goods and services produced by factories, mines, and power plants is measured by the index of industrial production, which is adjusted for inflation. While Manufacturing Production tracks manufacturers' inflation-adjusted output. Both sectors have experienced growth in recent months as the UK returns to pre-pandemic conditions.
8:00 GMT- Annualised CPI December- Spain: Expectations are for a jump from 5.8% to 6.8% to Spanish inflation figures for last month, despite having shown a consistent downward trend since August 2022 when the rate peaked at 10.4%.
10:00 GMT- Monthly Industrial Production November- EU: Production is expected to have grown for November in contrast to the previous month by 0.5% compared to -0.2%.
15:00 GMT- Michigan Consumer Sentiment January- US: The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan is a composite of around 500 survey responses that evaluate the present and the future of the economy. These statistics are provided in two phases, the first being a preliminary report and the second being a corrected report, with each phase separated by two weeks. Because it is more recent, the preliminary data usually has more of an effect. Forecast is for an increase to 60.5 from 59.7, the highest it's been since May 2022.
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