Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Homebuilder sentiment edged higher, but affordability issues persist due to high costs and weak demand
● Some builders are cutting prices or offering incentives to support sales
● Pending home sales rose 1.8% in February, though still down year-on-year
● Jobless claims fell to 205,000, suggesting companies are still retaining workers
● Producer inflation accelerated in February, highlighting persistent price pressures
● Leading indicators point to slower economic growth ahead
● The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, with caution rising due to inflation and the Iran conflict
● Policymakers remain hesitant on rate cuts as inflation stays elevated and the outlook is uncertain
Canada
● Inflation slowed to 1.8%, falling below the central bank’s target for the first time in months
● Price pressures are expected to rise again due to higher energy costs
● The Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and warned about risks linked to the Iran conflict
Europe / Eurozone
● German investor confidence dropped sharply as energy prices surged
● Broader European sentiment weakened due to geopolitical tensions
● The European Central Bank voted to keep its three key rates unchanged
● It raised its inflation forecast due to rising energy costs
● Policymakers warned the Iran conflict could push inflation higher and weigh on growth
United Kingdom
● Unemployment remains elevated at around 5.2%
● The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%
● It signaled it may raise rates if inflation becomes more persistent
Asia (China, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia)
● China’s economy started the year strong, supported by exports and industrial output
● However, growth remains uneven, with weak domestic demand and rising external risks
● Retail sales growth was supported mainly by government subsidies rather than strong consumer confidence
● The Iran conflict could weigh on exports and margins due to higher commodity prices
● Japan’s central bank kept rates unchanged, citing uncertainty from geopolitical tensions
● Taiwan held rates steady but raised its inflation outlook due to global risks
● Indonesia’s central bank also held rates, maintaining a cautious stance
Australia
● The central bank raised interest rates to 4.10% in a split decision
● Inflation concerns remain elevated, reinforcing a tightening bias
Switzerland
● The central bank kept rates unchanged at 0%
● It signaled readiness to intervene in FX markets as the franc strengthens on safe-haven demand
Brazil
● The central bank cut interest rates, but future policy remains uncertain due to global risks
New Zealand
● Economic growth disappointed, signaling a fragile recovery
● Slower momentum and external risks could limit further rate hikes
Global / Macro
● The Iran war continues to drive uncertainty across markets
● Rising oil prices are increasing inflation risks and complicating central bank decisions globally
● Markets are reassessing rate paths as geopolitical risks add to existing economic headwinds
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -1.35%
Weekly: +1.16%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +1.12%
Weekly: -0.66%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -0.41%
Weekly: +1.32%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +6.34%
Weekly: +1.36%
USD/CAD:
YTD: -0.22%
Weekly: +0.12%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -2.00%
Weekly: +1.07%
● The EUR/RUB and the USD/RUB are up more than 7%.
● The NOK/SEK is up more than 2.10%.
● The JPY/CAD is up more than 1.35%.
● The GBP/CAD is up more than 1.25%.
● The CHF/NOK is down more than 2.60%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: +8.60%
Weekly: -7.69%
Brent:
YTD: +75.52%
Weekly: +5.06%
WTI:
YTD: +62.94%
Weekly: -3.13%
Copper:
YTD: -3.28%
Weekly: -5.43%
● Orange Juice prices are down more than 15%.
● Silver prices are down more than 11%.
● Gold and Palladium prices are down more than 7%.
● London Gas Oil prices are up more than 17%.
● London Sugar prices are up more than 8%.
● Brent prices are up more than 5%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: -6.78%
Weekly: -2.32%
S&P 500:
YTD: -3.95%
Weekly: -1.00%
NASDAQ:
YTD: -5.92%
Weekly: -1.49%
DOW JONES:
YTD: -4.33%
Weekly: -1.43%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +1.33%
Weekly: -2.35%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +11.88%
Weekly: +0.55%
● The Kospi index is up more than 6.80%.
● The VIX index is down more than 5.5%.
● The DAX 40 index is down more than 3%.
● The Euro50 index and the UK100 index are down more than 2.8%.
● The Dow Jones index is down more than 2.5%.
Shares
Tops
● Eneva: +21.11%
● Ciena: +19.85%
● Sandisk: +19.33%
● Western Digital: +19.30%
● APA: +14.64%
● Diploma: +13.57%
● Seagate Technology: +13.56%
● Delta Airlines: +13.32%
● BP: +13.24%
● TotalEnergies: +12.26%
Flops
● Ulta Beauty: - 18.09%
● Fresnillo: -16.09%
● Mosaic: -15.62%
● Newmont: -15.16%
● Autofagasta: -14.63%
● Trade Desk: -14.26%
● Minerva: -13.12%
● Companhia Siderurgica Nacional: -13.00%
● Corpay: -12.61%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 23 March
● 10:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51
○ Forecast: 51.6
● 10:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 54.7
● 11:30 PM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (February)
○ Previous: 1.5%
○ Forecast: 1.3%
Tuesday 24 March
● 12:30 PM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 51
● 12:30 PM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 53.8
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 08:15 AM - French - HCOB Composite PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 49.9
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 08:15 AM - French - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 50.1
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 08:15 AM - French - HCOB Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:30 AM - German - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 50.9
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 08:30 AM - German - HCOB Composite PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 53.2
○ Forecast: 52
● 08:30 AM - German - HCOB Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 53.5
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Composite PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 52
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 50.8
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 09:00 AM - European - HCOB Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 52
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.1
● 09:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 51.8
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (March)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 50.4
Wednesday 25 March
● 07:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (February)
○ Previous: 3%
○ Forecast: 2.8%
● 09:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (March)
○ Previous: 88.6
○ Forecast: 86
Thursday 26 March
● 07:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (April)
○ Previous: -24.7
○ Forecast: -28
Friday 27 March
● 07:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (February)
○ Previous: 1.8%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 25 March
● Beyond Meat
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of March 20, 2026
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