Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
- The conflict involving Iran is disrupting global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Iran signaling it will use the blockade as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.
- The International Energy Agency warned of the largest oil supply disruption in history, with global supply potentially falling by 8 million barrels per day in March.
- Gulf producers have cut production by around 10 million barrels per day, intensifying supply shortages.
- The IEA plans to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to stabilize markets.
- Iran warned oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.
- Surging energy costs are intensifying global inflationary pressures, likely prompting central banks—especially in energy-dependent Asian markets—to adopt more aggressive monetary tightening.
United States
- The Trump administration launched new trade investigations under Section 301 targeting excess industrial capacity in several Asian economies.
- To alleviate supply constraints, the U.S. issued a temporary waiver allowing for the purchase of Russian oil currently held in offshore transit.
- Inflation data continues to send mixed signals: CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, while the Fed’s preferred PCE measure was 2.9% in January.
- The divergence between CPI and PCE largely reflects different weightings for housing and healthcare.
- Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000 in the week through March 7, while continuing claims declined to 1.85 million, indicating layoffs remain limited.
- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, a 25% drop from December, as exports rose 5.5% and imports declined 0.7%.
- Capitalizing on a temporary window of lower borrowing costs, buyers pushed existing-home sales up 1.7% to an annualized pace of 4.09 million this February.
- The median existing-home price increased 0.3% year-over-year to $398,000, while mortgage rates moved back above 6% following the Iran conflict.
China
- China’s exports surged 21.8% to $657 billion in January and February, pushing the trade surplus close to $214 billion.
- Exports to the United States fell 11% during the same period, although a recent U.S. court decision striking down tariffs could improve China’s export outlook.
- Beijing maintained its 2026 growth target at 4.5%–5% and pledged to boost domestic demand, though no major new stimulus measures were announced.
Japan
- Japan’s economy grew 1.3% annualized in the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly above the preliminary estimate of 0.2%.
- Strong capital spending supported growth and strengthened the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes.
- Policymakers face increasing uncertainty as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions complicate the outlook.
Germany
- German manufacturing orders plunged 11.1% in January, with domestic orders falling 16.2% and foreign orders down 7.1%.
- Industrial production declined 0.5% in January after a 1.0% drop in December, highlighting continued weakness in the industrial sector.
- German exports fell 2.3% in January, though shipments to the United States increased 11.7%, making it the country’s largest export destination.
- Germany’s trade surplus widened to €21.2 billion from €17.1 billion the previous month.
- Leading economic institutes lowered Germany’s 2026 growth forecast to around 0.8%–0.9%, citing higher energy prices and global uncertainty.
- Economists say Germany’s recovery is currently driven mainly by fiscal stimulus rather than export growth.
Eurozone
- Economists say the current energy shock differs from the 2022 crisis because weaker consumer demand may offset some inflation pressure.
- Some analysts believe central banks in Europe could lean toward looser policy rather than aggressive tightening if growth weakens.
Canada
- A 4.7% contraction in exports drove Canada’s merchandise trade deficit to C$3.65 billion in January, its widest level since late last year.
- Shipments of motor vehicles, metals, and aircraft declined significantly during the month.
- Canada’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed to C$5.4 billion, while its deficit with other trading partners expanded.
- The housing outlook remains weak: housing starts are expected to decline between 2026 and 2028 due to higher costs and weaker demand.
- Unsold housing inventory reached record levels in major cities, and condominium sales in Toronto fell to their lowest level in more than 40 years.
- Existing-home sales are nearly 20% below year-ago levels and prices remain about 19% below their February 2022 peak.
Turkey
- Turkey’s central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 37%.
- Policymakers signaled they may raise interest rates again if higher energy prices push inflation higher.
Singapore
- Singapore rejected U.S. trade data suggesting a $27 billion surplus with the United States in 2024, citing U.S. statistics that instead show a trade deficit.
Thailand
- Thai officials noted that the country’s $51 billion trade surplus with the United States partly reflects exports from U.S. companies operating manufacturing facilities in Thailand.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The Japanese Yen reached levels inseen in around 40 years.
- The NZD/USD is down more than 1.25%.
- The AUD/NZD is up more than 2.10%.
- The AUD/EUR is up more than 1.90%.
- The JPY/AUD is down more than 1.75%.
- The USD/HUF is up more than 2.10%.
Commodities
- Orange Juice prices are up more than 11%.
- Brent prices are up more than 8% and Crude prices are up around 5%.
- Heating oil prices are up almost 8%.
Indices
- The VIX index is up more than 23%.
- The Dow Jones index is down more than 3.80%
- The Bovespa index is down more than 3.20%.
- The S&P500 index is down more than 2.60%.
- The UK100 index is down more than 2.45%.
- The DAX 40 index is down more than 2.30%.
- The Euro50 index is down more than 2%.
Shares
Tops
- CF Industries Holdings: +28.30%
- Mozaic Company: +20.62%
- LyondellBasell Industries: +16.14%
- Admiral: +12.52%
- Dow: +12.18%
- Zalando: +12.06%
- Petroleo Brasileiro: +12.59%
- Braskem: +11.93%
- Kroger: +11.46%
- Marvell Technology: +11.12%
Flops
- Fair Isaac: -25.16%
- Raizen: -24.59%
- Companhia Siderurgica Nacional: -23.46%
- Centene: -22.51%
- Paramount Skydance: -18.74%
- Old Dominion Freight Line: -17.41%
- Ares Management: -16.79%
- Southwest Airlines: -16.52%
- Trade Desk: -15.76%
- Merck: -13.34%
- Barratt Redrow: -13.24%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 16 March
- 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (January-February)
- Previous: 5.2%
- Forecast: 5.1%
- 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (January-February)
- Previous: 0.9%
- Forecast: 2.5%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (February)
- Previous: 2.3%
- Forecast: 2.1%
Tuesday 17 March
- 03:30 AM - Australian - RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 3.85%
- Forecast: 3.85%
- 10:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)
- Previous: 58.3
- Forecast: 55
- 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (February)
- Previous: ¥-1152.7B
- Forecast: ¥600.0B
Wednesday 18 March
- 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (February)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 2.25%
- Forecast: 2.55%
- 06:00 PM - American - Fed Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 3.75%
- Forecast: 3.75%
- 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Economic Projections
- 06:30 PM - American - Fed Press Conference
Thursday 19 March
- 03:00 AM - Japanese - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 0.75%
- Forecast: 0.75%
- 07:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (January)
- Previous: 5.2%
- Forecast: 5.2%
- 08:30 AM - Swiss - SNB Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 0%
- Forecast: 0%
- 12:00 PM - UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 3.75%
- Forecast: 3.75%
- 01:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
- Previous: 2%
- Forecast: 2%
- 01:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 16 March
- Dollar Tree
Wednesday 18 March
- Weibo Corporation
- Micron Technology
- General Mills
- Jeronimo Martins
Thursday 19 March
- Sonae
- Accenture
- Alibaba
- Enel
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of March 13, 2026
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