Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Import prices rose 1.3% in February, driven by higher energy costs
● Jobless claims edged up to 210,000, signaling a still-stable labor market
● Mortgage rates climbed to 6.38%, weighing on housing demand and buyer activity
● PMI data showed business activity slowing to an 11-month low, with employment declining
● Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled rates could stay on hold depending on upcoming data
● Fed Governor Stephen Miran continues to support rate cuts despite rising oil prices, arguing the energy shock may be temporary
Eurozone
● Consumer confidence dropped sharply, hitting its lowest level since late 2023
● Rising energy prices are expected to push inflation higher this year
● Input costs surged at the fastest pace in over three years
● The ECB warned it may need to act forcefully if inflation accelerates further due to the Iran conflict
Germany
● Business and investor confidence weakened significantly due to rising energy costs
● Consumer confidence fell to a two-year low, reflecting growing inflation concerns
● The energy shock risks derailing the country’s fragile economic recovery
United Kingdom
● Inflation held at 3.0% in February but is expected to rise due to energy prices
● Consumer sentiment weakened as households worry about inflation and finances
● The Bank of England signaled readiness to act if inflation pressures persist
Japan
● Companies agreed to the largest wage increases in 35 years, supporting domestic demand
● Inflation slowed to 1.6%, giving the central bank more flexibility on timing rate hikes
● The Bank of Japan is still expected to tighten policy, but the Middle East conflict adds uncertainty
● Higher energy costs and trade disruptions could weigh on industrial activity
Asia (ex-China)
● Regional growth outlook improved, supported by AI demand and resilient exports
● However, rising energy prices and geopolitical risks could weaken currencies and tighten financial conditions
China
● Economic momentum remains uneven despite strong industrial output and exports
● Retail sales growth is driven by policy support rather than strong consumer demand
● External risks, including the Iran conflict and higher commodity prices, could pressure growth and margins
Australia
● Inflation eased slightly to 3.7% but remains above target
● The central bank has already raised rates twice and warns the oil shock could lift inflation expectations further
New Zealand
● The central bank signaled it may raise rates if inflation from higher oil prices becomes persistent
South Korea
● The incoming central bank leadership could adopt a more hawkish stance
● Markets are pricing in potential rate hikes over the coming months
Mexico
● The central bank cut interest rates in a split decision, signaling uncertainty over the outlook
South Africa
● The central bank held rates steady as inflation eased to 3.0%
Global
● The Iran conflict continues to drive higher energy prices, pushing up inflation risks globally
● Business activity slowed across major economies due to rising costs and uncertainty
● The OECD warned that sustained high energy prices could weaken growth and push global inflation higher
● Central banks are increasingly cautious, with many signaling a pause or potential tightening depending on inflation trends
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/ZAR is up more than 2.35%.
● The EUR/AUD is up more than 2.30%.
● The GBP/AUD and the USD/NOK are up more than 2%.
● The USD/JPY is up more than 1.30%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 6.40%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 5.8%.
● The AUD/HKD is down more than 2.75%.
● The AUD/USD is down more than 2.70%.
Commodities
● Orange Juice prices are up more than 10%.
● Platinum prices are down more than 6%.
● Gold prices are down more than 3%.
● Brent prices are down more than 3%.
Indices
● The VIX index is up more than 13%.
● The Bovespa index is up more than 1.70%.
● The DAX 40 index is down more than 2.6%.
● The Nasdaq index is down more than 2.10%.
Shares
Tops
● Hapvida Participacoes e Investimentos: +42%
● ARM Holdings: +23.84%
● MBRF Global Foods: +21.78%
● Dell Technologies: +19.94%
● Hewlett Packard: +18.09%
● Brenntag: +17.56%
● SLB Limited: +15.69%
● APA: +15.68%
● Marvell Technology: +13.23%
● Brown-Forman: +12.35%
● Croda International: +10%
Flops
● Super Micro Computer: -25.97%
● 3i Group: -19.02%
● Estee Lauder: -17.30%
● Micron Technology: -16.37%
● Sandisk: -14.70%
● Braskem: -14.56%
● Badcock International: -12.62%
● Vonovia: -12.10%
● Rheinmetal: -10.67%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 30 March
● 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (March)
○ Previous: 1.9%
○ Forecast: 2.6%
Tuesday 31 March
● 12:30 AM - Australian - RBA Meeting Minutes
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 49.0
○ Forecast: 49.8
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 49.5
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 08:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (March)
○ Previous: 0.9%
○ Forecast: 1.7%
● 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (March)
○ Previous: 1.9%
○ Forecast: 2.2%
● 01:45 PM - American - Chicago PMI (March)
○ Previous: 57.7
○ Forecast: 54
● 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (February)
○ Previous: 6.946M
○ Forecast: 6.7M
● 10:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51
○ Forecast: 50.1
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
○ Previous: 15
○ Forecast: 11
Wednesday 01 April
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 52.1
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - HCOB Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 50.4
● 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 47.4
○ Forecast: 47.2
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 50.1
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 50.9
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 50.8
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (February)
○ Previous: -0.2%
○ Forecast: -0.1%
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 51.0
○ Forecast: 49.2
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 52.4
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (March)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 52
Thursday 02 April
● 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (February)
○ Previous: A$2.631B
○ Forecast: A$2.7B
Friday 03 April
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 52.50
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.8
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (March)
○ Previous: 56.7
○ Forecast: 54.5
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (March)
○ Previous: 55.4
○ Forecast: 53.1
● 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (March)
○ Previous: -92K
○ Forecast: 50K
● 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (March)
○ Previous: 4.4%
○ Forecast: 4.50%
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.1
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (March)
○ Previous: 56.1
○ Forecast: 54
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 30 March
● Virgin Galactic
Tuesday 31 March
● McCormick & Co
● NIKE
Wednesday 01 April
● Tilray
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of March 27, 2026
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