● On Monday 30th: Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, German Inflation Rate YoY Prel, ECB President Lagarde Speech and Fed Chair Powell Speech
● On Tuesday 1st: Japanese Consumer Confidence, European Inflation Rate YoY Flash, American ISM Manufacturing PMI, American JOLTs Job Openings and Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
● On Wednesday 2nd: Nothing
● On Thursday 3rd: Australian Balance of Trade and American ISM Services PMI
● On Friday 4th: Canadian Balance of Trade, American Non Farm Payrolls, American Unemployment Rate and Canadian Ivey PMI
Monday 30th of September
The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China experienced a further decline in August 2024, falling to 49.1 from 49.4 in July. This marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity, with the steepest decline since February.The downturn was driven by a decline in output, following five months of growth, as well as a continued decline in new orders, foreign sales, and buying levels. The manufacturing sector also faced ongoing weakness in employment and a slight lengthening of delivery times.
On the price front, input prices saw a sharp decrease after showing signs of stabilisation in July. Output prices also shrank for the third consecutive month, with the steepest rate of decline. The overall sentiment among manufacturers softened for the second month in a row.
Traders will be focused on the release of the September NBS Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to show a slight increase to 50. The data is scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT.
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in August 2024 from 49.8 in July, exceeding market expectations of 50.0. This increase was driven by a return to growth in new orders, which supported faster production expansion amid improved underlying demand conditions. However, foreign demand declined slightly for the first time in the year-to-date period, reflecting deteriorating conditions.
Meanwhile, the employment situation stabilised after eleven months of decline, as improving demand conditions led to a rise in backlogs of work for the sixth consecutive month. Purchasing activity fell marginally, while delivery times lengthened at a slightly faster pace due to supply and transportation constraints.
On the price front, input prices declined for the first time in five months due to lower raw material prices. Output prices also dropped as firms offered discounts to remain competitive. Business sentiment improved to a three-month high,supported by optimism about improving economic conditions.
Traders will be watching the release of the September Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to increase to 51 when the data is released at 1:45 AM GMT.
The annual inflation rate in Germany eased to 1.9% in August 2024, down from 2.3% in July. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2021, primarily due to a decline in energy costs. While services inflation remained stable, food prices continued to rise for the fifth consecutive month.
On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged down by 0.1% in August, following a 0.3% increase in July. The EU-harmonised CPI also eased to 2.0% from 2.6% year-over-year, while declining 0.2% month-over-month after rising 0.5% in July.
Traders will follow the release of the preliminary September German Inflation Rate YoY data, which is expected to increase to 2.1% at 12:00 PM GMT.
ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech on monetary policy at the European Parliament in Brussels at 1:00 PM GMT. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Nashville, in a discussion titled "A View from the Federal Reserve Board" at 5:00 PM GMT.
Tuesday 1st of October
Consumer confidence in Japan remained unchanged in August 2024, holding steady at 36.7. This figure was below market expectations of 36.9 but marked the highest consumer morale since April. Households felt more optimistic about their ability to purchase durable goods and their overall standard of living. However, their confidence in income growth and employment prospects declined. Market analysts predict that Japanese Consumer Confidence will fall to 35 in September, with the data set to be released at 5:00 AM GMT.
Annual inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 2.2% in August 2024, the lowest level since July 2021. This represented a decrease from 2.6% in July and aligned with the preliminary estimate. The primary contributors to the rise in prices were services, food, alcohol, and tobacco. Among the major economies in the Eurozone, inflation rates declined in Germany,France, Italy, and Spain. Only Latvia, Malta, Slovakia, and Finland experienced increases in their inflation rates. Core inflation is projected to reach 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.0% in 2026. Market analysts anticipate that the European Inflation Rate YoY Flash for September will fall to 2.1%, with the data scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM GMT.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a slight increase in August 2024, rising to 47.2 from the previous month's low of 46.8. This figure fell short of market expectations of 47.5 and marked the 21st consecutive month of contraction in US factory activity. The result highlighted the ongoing weakness in US manufacturing, further emphasising the impact of higher interest rates implemented by the Federal Reserve. Market analysts predict that the American ISM Manufacturing PMI for September will improve to 53, with the data set to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
The number of job openings in the United States declined by 237,000 in July 2024, falling to 7.673 million. This marked the lowest level since January 2021 and was below market expectations of 8.10 million. The previous month's figure was also revised downward to 7.910 million. Market analysts anticipate that the American JOLTs Job Openings for August will decrease further to 7.65 million, with the data scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index, which measures sentiment among large manufacturers, increased to a positive 13 in the second quarter of 2024. This marked the highest level in two years, reflecting an improving economic outlook and surpassing market expectations of a positive 12. Large manufacturing firms anticipate further positive developments in business conditions, with a reading of plus 14 projected for the third quarter. Market analysts predict that the Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Q3 will decline to 10, with the data set to be released at 11:50 PM GMT.
Wednesday 2nd of October
Nothing
Thursday 3rd of October
Australia's trade surplus for goods rose to AUD 6.01 billion in July 2024, exceeding market expectations of AUD 5 billion. This marked the largest trade surplus since February, driven by an increase in exports and a decline in imports.The previous month's figure was revised downward to AUD 5.43 billion. Market analysts will closely monitor the Australian Balance of Trade for August, with the data scheduled to be released at 1:30 AM GMT.
The ISM Services PMI in the US rose slightly to 51.5 in August 2024, surpassing market expectations of a decline to 51.1. This marked an extension of the positive momentum in activity for US service providers. Market analysts predict that the American ISM Services PMI for September will continue to rise, reaching 53, with the data set to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Friday 4th of October
Canada registered a trade surplus of CAD 0.68 billion in July 2024, marking the first surplus since February. This followed a revised deficit of CAD 0.18 billion in June and fell short of market expectations for a CAD 0.85 billion surplus. Market analysts anticipate that the Canadian Balance of Trade for August will decline to C$0.5 billion, with the data scheduled to be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, surpassing the revised figure of 89,000 jobs added in July but falling short of market expectations of 160,000 jobs. Gains were concentrated in construction, healthcare, government,and social assistance sectors. However, manufacturing employment declined, reflecting a drop in durable goods production. Although August's job growth was consistent with recent trends, it was below the average monthly gain of 202,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Additionally, the July and June figures were revised downward. Market analysts anticipate that American Non-Farm Payrolls for September will decrease to 130,000, with the data scheduled to be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.2% in August 2024 from the previous month's high of 4.3%, meeting market expectations. The number of unemployed individuals remained relatively unchanged, with a slight decrease in temporary layoffs. Traders predict that the American Unemployment Rate for September will increase to 4.3%, with the data scheduled to be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index in Canada experienced a sharp decline in August 2024, falling to 48.2 from 57.6 in July. This figure significantly missed the forecast of 55.5 and marked the lowest level since December 2020. The decline represents the first contraction in the Canadian economy following 12 months of solid growth. Market analysts anticipate that the Canadian Ivey PMI s.a for September will rebound to 54.5, with the data scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
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