On Monday 23th: German, French, European, British and American Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash
On Tuesday 24th: Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision and German Ifo Business Climate
On Wednesday 25th: Australian Monthly CPI Indicator
On Thursday 26th: German GfK Consumer Confidence, Swiss National Bank meeting, American Durable Goods Orders MoM, American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final and Fed Chair Powell and ECB Chair Lagarde Speech
On Friday 27th: French Inflation Rate YoY Peel, American Core PCE Price Index MoM, American Personal Income MoM and American Personal Spending MoM
Monday 23th of September
Today, several Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash reports for September will be released, including those for France at 7:15 AM GMT, for Germany at 7:30 AM GMT, for Europe at 8:00 AM GMT, for Great Britain at at 8:30 AM GMT, and for the United States at at 1:30 PM GMT.
These reports are eagerly awaited by investors as they provide valuable insights into the economic health of these regions. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a composite index that measures the overall health of the manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. PMIs are considered leading indicators, offering early signals about economic trends before they are reflected in other official data.
Tuesday 24th of September
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.35% during its August meeting. This decision marked the sixth consecutive month of unchanged interest rates. However, the central bank expressed concerns about inflation, which remains above its target range of 2-3%.
The RBA reiterated its commitment to keeping monetary policy sufficiently restrictive until inflation returns to the target.While the board acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook, including slow GDP growth, rising unemployment, and challenges faced by businesses, it emphasised its continued vigilance regarding potential inflationary pressures.
The RBA also indicated that it would closely monitor global economic developments, domestic demand trends, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Investors will be closely watching the Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision,scheduled for release at 4:30 AM GMT.
The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany experienced a decline in August 2024, as the index fell to 86.6,the lowest level since February, down from 87 in July. This fall was driven by increased pessimism among German companies and a worsened assessment of their current business situation. Both the sub index for current conditions and business expectations decreased during the month.
Market participants anticipate that the German Ifo Business Climate index will rebound slightly in September, with expectations for a rise to 87.3. The release of the September data is scheduled for 8:00 AM GMT.
Wednesday 25th of September
The annual inflation rate in Australia eased slightly in July 2024, falling to 3.5% from 3.8% in June. This marked the lowest level since March, primarily due to the extended and expanded Energy Bill Relief Fund rebate. Excluding volatile items and travel, consumer prices rose by 3.7% in July, the least since January 2022.
Despite this improvement, inflation remains outside the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3%. Investors will be closely watching the release of the August Monthly CPI Indicator, scheduled for 1:30 AM GMT, to get an idea of how inflation is evolving in Australia.
Thursday 26th of September
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany experienced a sharp decline in August 2024, dropping to -22.0 from a revised -18.6 in July. This marked the lowest reading since May, driven by growing concerns about job security, rising corporate insolvencies, and a weakening economy. Market participants anticipate a slight recovery in German consumer confidence in October, with expectations for the index to rise to -19. The data is scheduled for release at 6:00 AM GMT.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) eased its monetary policy in June 2024, lowering the policy rate to 1.25%. This decision was made in response to a continued decline in underlying inflationary pressure compared to the previous quarter. The SNB also maintained its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary. In a significant development, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan announced his resignation at the end of September, concluding a 12-year tenure.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States surged by 9.9% in July 2024, rebounding from a downwardly revised 6.9% decline in June. This marked the largest increase since May 2020, significantly surpassing market expectations of a 5% expansion. The strong growth in durable goods orders challenged the growing pessimism surrounding manufacturing activity in the United States, suggesting that the current slowdown may be temporary.
Investors will be closely watching the release of the August durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a decline of 2.2%. The data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States grew at a revised annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, up from the initial estimate of 2.8%. This upward revision was primarily driven by increased consumer spending.
While gains in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment contributed to the overall GDP growth, a rise in imports had a negative impact. However, the second estimate also included downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, government spending, and residential fixed investment, while imports were adjusted higher.
Investors will be closely following the release of the final GDP growth rate for the second quarter, scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Speech: Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chair Powell's opening remarks at the U.S. Treasury Market Conference, scheduled for 1:20 PM GMT.
ECB Chair Lagarde's Speech: European Central Bank (ECB) Chair Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at the European Systemic Risk Board conference at 1:30 PM GMT.
Friday 27th of September
The annual inflation rate in France experienced a further decline in August 2024, falling to 1.8% from the previous month's rate of 2.3%. This marks the lowest inflation rate since July 2021, primarily driven by a sharp decrease in energy prices. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in August, up from a 0.2% increase in July.
The EU-harmonised CPI also rose in line with preliminary figures, increasing by 2.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. Market participants anticipate a slight uptick in French inflation in September, with the preliminary year-on-year rate expected to reach 2% when the data is released at 06:45 AM GMT.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in the United States remained unchanged in July 2024, rising by 0.2% from the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE prices rose by 2.6% in July. Investors will be closely watching the release of the August core PCE price index data, scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT.
Personal income in the United States rose by 0.3% in July 2024, reaching $24.015 trillion. This increase surpassed market forecasts of a 0.2% rise and followed a 0.2% increase in June. Additionally, personal spending in the United States increased by 0.5% in July, aligning with market expectations and building upon the 0.3% rise in June. Investors will be closely monitoring the release of the August personal income and spending data, both scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT.
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