Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- US home sales edged up by 0.8% in May, breaking a two-month decline, yet the housing market remains sluggish. This slight rise from June's figures doesn't mask a broader slump: last month marked the slowest May for existing home sales since 2009. Furthermore, May's existing home sales were down 0.7% compared to last year.
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman signaled her support for a July interest-rate cut on Monday. Coming after similar remarks last week from Governor Christopher Waller, her comments point to increasing agreement for looser monetary policy.
- French economic output saw a further decline in June, with both manufacturing and services sectors now contracting. Meanwhile, German business activity returned to growth during the same month. Across the Eurozone, overall business activity increased only marginally as new orders neared stabilization.
- In the UK, output growth picked up in June, and inflation for prices charged softened to its lowest in almost four and a half years.
- The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI dipped to 52.8 in June from 53.0 in May.
- Eurosystem staff anticipate the euro area economy will expand by 0.9% this year, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. However, Christine Lagarde notes that the global economic outlook continues to grapple with “exceptionally high economic and political uncertainty”.
- Canadian inflation held steady at 1.7% in May as underlying price pressures began to ease.
- The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index worsened in June, wiping out nearly half of the significant gains seen in May.
- US new home sales slumped by 13.7% in May, dropping to 623,000, as persistently high mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market.
- Australian inflation eased in May, with the monthly CPI indicator rising by 2.1%. Annual trimmed mean inflation also dropped to 2.4% in May, down from 2.8% in April. This easing inflation, coupled with a weak economy, could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates again in July.
- Powell reaffirms a wait-and-see stance on interest rate cuts during congressional hearings. This comes amid an emerging disagreement within the Fed regarding rate cuts and strong criticism from President Trump.
- Global dealmaking has hit a 20-year low, as tariffs, high interest rates, a volatile market, and uncertainty surrounding Trump administration policies continue to stifle M&A activity.
- The US economy shrank by 0.5% annually in the first quarter of 2025 (January-March), following a 2.4% increase in the last quarter of 2024.
- The conflict in the Middle East could slow Eurozone growth, warned ECB's De Guindos, adding that energy prices will likely stay volatile as long as further hostilities remain a possibility.
- Trump is reportedly looking to name the next Fed Chair early, aiming to undermine Powell. He's reportedly weighing candidates like Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, evaluating their willingness to cut interest rates.
- German consumer confidence is slipping, as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies makes them more cautious.
- Demand for U.S. durable goods surged by 16.4% in May, reaching an 11-year high.
- Profits for major industrial firms in China fell 1.1% in the first five months of 2025 compared to last year.
- China's industrial profits plunged 9.1% in May, showing Beijing's efforts aren't boosting company profits as expected. This was the biggest monthly drop since October last year (when profits fell 10%).
- China is facing a prolonged economic slump, marked by four consecutive months of declining consumer prices, near-historic low consumer confidence, and a struggling real estate market. Analysts largely attribute these issues to stagnant incomes.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The British pound is trading around its strongest level against the dollar since January 2022.
- The dollar is hovering near its lowest point in over three years.
- The Taiwan Dollar has risen past 29 per US dollar, a level not seen since 2022.
- For the euro to reach $1.20, analysts at ING believe developments regarding tariffs, U.S. deficits, or actions by the Federal Reserve would be necessary.
Commodities
- Cocoa prices are up more than 10%.
- Platinum and Palladium prices are up almost 10%.
- Light Crude and Brent futures are up down around 11%.
- Natural gas prices are down almost 10%.
Indices
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is hovering around its highest level since late January.
- The USATec and USA500 indices are trading at their highest level around 22,498 points and 6,154 points respectively.
Shares
Tops
- Coinbase Global: +47.67%
- Enphase Energy: +23.49%
- Generac Holding: +14.61%
- Super Micro Computer: +14.40%
- Arista Networks: +13.03%
- Carnival Corporation: +12.85%
- Royal Caribbean Cruises: +12.52%
- Northern Trust: +12.41%
- Advanced Micro Devices: +12.24%
- DoorDash: +10.44%
- Wells Fargo & Company: +10.06%
- Goldman Sacks: +10.03%
- JD Sport Fashion: +9.61%
Flops
- Equinix: -15.63%
- Cosan: -14.90%
- Brava: -13.36%
- Braskem: -13.08%
- Raizen: -11.29%
- Apaisas: -11.13%
- Vamos: -10.89%
- CF Industries Holdings: -10.48%
- Usimimas: -10.20%
- Halliburton: -10.10%
- Localiza: -10.09%
- Sao Martinhoon: -10.02%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 30 June
- 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 49.5
- Forecast: 50.4
- 12:00 PM - German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (June)
- Previous: 2.1%
- Forecast: 2.2%
- 11:50 AM - Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1)
- Previous: 12
- Forecast: 10
Tuesday 01 July
- 01:45 AM - Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 48.3
- Forecast: 49.8
- 05:00 AM - Japanese Consumer Confidence (June)
- Previous: 32.8
- Forecast: 33.5
- 09:00 AM - European Inflation Rate YoY Flash (June)
- Previous: 1.9%
- Forecast: 2%
- 02:00 PM - American ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
- Previous: 48.5
- Forecast: 49.2
- 02:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (May)
- Previous: 7.391M
- Forecast: 7.1M
Thursday 03 July
- 01:30 AM - Australian Balance of Trade (May)
- Previous: A$5.413B
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Balance of Trade (May)
- Previous: C$-7.14B
- Forecast: C$-8B
- 12:30 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (June)
- Previous: 139K
- Forecast: 129K
- 12:30 PM - American Unemployment Rate (June)
- Previous: 4.2%
- Forecast: 4.2%
- 02:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (June)
- Previous: 49.9
- Forecast: 50.3
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 01 July
- Constellation Brands
Source: Trading Economics, TradingView, and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 27 2025
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