Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Gasoline prices rose above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, driven by the oil shock
● The Fed held rates steady and signaled a higher bar for future rate cuts
● Jerome Powell said the Fed can look through temporary oil shocks but remains cautious on inflation
● Markets now expect rates to stay on hold as uncertainty rises
● Fed officials warned inflation risks from the Iran conflict may require action if they persist
● The nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair faces political uncertainty
● Job openings fell to 6.9 million, with hiring at its lowest level since 2020
● Private-sector job growth slowed to 62,000 in March
● Jobless claims fell to 202,000, indicating a still-resilient labor market
● Housing market remains soft, with home-price growth slowing to 0.9% annually
● Mortgage affordability remains under pressure as inflation outpaces home prices
● Japanese firms continue to acquire U.S. homebuilders, taking advantage of relatively stronger market conditions
● The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela, aiming to boost oil supply and investment
● Trade policy adjustments on metals could increase import costs
Eurozone
● Economic sentiment weakened further as the Iran war drives uncertainty
● Inflation rose to 2.5% in March, the highest since early 2025, driven by energy prices
● The ECB raised its inflation forecast and cut growth expectations
● Markets are pricing in multiple rate hikes this year
● The unemployment rate edged higher to 6.2%, with risks to hiring increasing
● Policymakers warned inflation could rise further if energy disruptions persist
Germany
● Economic outlook remains fragile, with sentiment weakening due to energy costs
● Growth expectations for 2026 have been downgraded
United Kingdom
● Shop-price inflation edged higher and is expected to accelerate further
● Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year
● Food inflation could surge to 9–10% by year-end due to supply disruptions and energy costs
● The Bank of England expects inflation to rise toward 3.5% in coming months
Japan
● Companies agreed to the largest wage increase in 35 years, supporting domestic demand
● Inflation in Tokyo slowed slightly, while industrial output declined
● Economic signals remain mixed, complicating the Bank of Japan’s rate path
● Strong wage growth and corporate sentiment support expectations of a rate hike
● However, rising energy costs and weaker forward sentiment create uncertainty
● Japanese firms continue expanding abroad, particularly in U.S. housing
China
● Growth remains under pressure from external risks and weaker global demand
● Policy focus remains on supporting domestic demand amid uncertainty
India
● The economy faces downside risks from the Middle East conflict
● The central bank imposed limits on currency positions to stabilize the rupee
● Growth forecasts may be revised lower due to rising global risks
South Korea
● The won weakened to its lowest level since 2009 against the dollar
● Strong capital inflows helped maintain dollar liquidity despite currency pressure
Canada
● GDP growth remained modest but positive in early 2026
● Economic activity is supported by energy and construction sectors
● The Bank of Canada held rates steady, balancing inflation risks and growth concerns
● Policymakers face increasing difficulty due to higher energy prices and trade uncertainty
Global
● The Iran conflict continues to drive higher energy prices and global uncertainty
● Inflation pressures are rising again, complicating central bank strategies
● Diverging sentiment indicators highlight uncertainty in consumer outlook
● Central banks globally are leaning toward caution, with many pausing or considering tightening depending on inflation trends
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The AUD/NZD and the ZAR/JPY are up more than 1.30%.
● The USD/NOK is up more than 0.60%.
● The GBP/HUF is down more than 1.90%.
● The GBP/ZAR is down more than 1.60%.
● The NZD/JPY is down more than 1%.
Commodities
● Light Crude Oil prices are up almost 13%.
● Orange Juice prices are up almost 12%.
● London Gas Oil prices are up more than 10%.
● Palladium prices are up more than 7.80%.
● Natural Gas prices are down more than 9.50%.
● US Sugar prices are down more than 5%.
Indices
● The Ita40 index is up more than 4%.
● The UK100 index is up more than 3%.
● The CAC40 index is up more than 2%.
● The VIX index is down more than 9.85%.
Shares
Tops
● SBA Communications: +23.98%
● FacSet Research Systems: +17.52%
● Newmont: +15.21%
● Brown-Foreman: +14.66%
● Sendas Distribuidora: +13.28%
● Entergy: +12.28%
● Stellantis: +11.42%
● Rio Tinto: +10.35%
Flops
● Compass: -98.64%
● Texas Pacific Land: -14.40%
● NIKE: -16.24%
● Braskem: -14.16%
● Sysco: -13.39%
● Strategy: -12.24%
● EQT: -12.04%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 06 April
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (March)
○ Previous: 47.1
○ Forecast: 47.5
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (March)
○ Previous: 46.5
○ Forecast: 48
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (March)
○ Previous: 56.1
○ Forecast: 55
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 47.00
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 46.6
Tuesday 07 April
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (March)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 51.3
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 49.9
○ Forecast: 48.3
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 49.6
○ Forecast: 48.3
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.2
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.5
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 50.1
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.7
○ Forecast: 51
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (March)
○ Previous: 53.9
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (February)
○ Previous: 0%
○ Forecast: 0.6%
● 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (March)
○ Previous: 56.6
○ Forecast: 51
Wednesday 08 April
● 07:30 AM - European - HCOB Construction PMI (March)
○ Previous: 46.0
○ Forecast: 46.6
● 07:30 AM - French - HCOB Construction PMI (March)
○ Previous: 43.9
○ Forecast: 45
● 07:30 AM - German - HCOB Construction PMI (March)
○ Previous: 43.7
○ Forecast: 44.5
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (March)
○ Previous: 44.5
○ Forecast: 47
● 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Minutes
Thursday 09 April
● 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (March)
○ Previous: 40.0
○ Forecast: 38
● 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (February)
○ Previous: €21.2B
○ Forecast: €19.1B
● 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (February)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4)
○ Previous: 4.4%
○ Forecast: 0.7%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (February)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (February)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.6%
● 10:30 PM - New Zelander - Business NZ PMI (March)
○ Previous: 55.0
○ Forecast: 55.6
Friday 10 April
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 1.1%
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (March)
○ Previous: 6.7%
○ Forecast: 6.90%
● 12:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 2.5%
○ Forecast: 2.6%
● 12:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 2.4%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
● 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (April)
○ Previous: 53.3
○ Forecast: 52.9
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 08 April
● Delta Air Lines
● Constellation Brands
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of April 3, 2026
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