Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● The Justice Department is investigating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over testimony he gave to Congress last summer regarding the costly renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. Powell confirmed the Fed received subpoenas linked to his June appearance before the Senate Banking Committee.
● The investigation is complicating President Trump’s decision on Powell’s successor, raising concerns about the independence of potential candidates close to the administration.
● JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that political interference with the Federal Reserve would likely push interest rates higher.
● Retail sales rose 0.6% in November to $735.9 billion, rebounding from a soft October and showing consumer spending remains a key growth driver.
● Inflation held steady in December, with CPI up 2.7% year over year, down from 3% earlier in 2025 but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
● Producer prices increased by a modest 0.2% in November, suggesting limited upstream inflation pressure.
● Existing home sales jumped 5.1% in December, the biggest gain in nearly two years, helped by easing mortgage rates, even though 2025 overall remained one of the weakest years on record.
● New home sales were 18.7% higher in October compared with a year earlier, signaling a recovery after a weak summer.
● Weekly jobless claims fell to 198,000 in mid-January, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market despite slower hiring trends in 2025.
Europe and Eurozone
● European companies are increasingly affected by U.S. tariffs, with many now facing duties of 15% when exporting to the U.S. ECB economists estimate this could cut eurozone GDP by 0.7 percentage point through 2027.
● The ECB said financial markets appear calm despite rising geopolitical risks, noting the eurozone economy proved relatively resilient to tariffs and tensions in 2025.
● The ECB raised its growth outlook to 1.2% for this year and 1.4% in the following years, while warning that exposure to global shocks remains high.
● The eurozone household saving rate fell to 15.1% in the third quarter from 15.4%, as consumption grew faster than disposable income.
● The ECB expects the saving rate to decline further to 14.7% in 2026 and 2027, supporting consumption-led growth.
Germany
● Germany’s economy grew by 0.2% in 2025, its first expansion since 2022, after contractions in 2023 and 2024.
● Stronger growth is still challenged by competition from China and the effective use of large-scale government stimulus.
United Kingdom
● The U.K. economy expanded by 0.3% in November, beating expectations, driven by a rebound in industrial production.
● U.K. house prices are forecast to rise around 1.5% in 2026, though growth in London is expected to lag the rest of the country.
Canada
● Manufacturing shipments fell 1.2% in November to C$70.77 billion, the sharpest monthly decline since May, reflecting softer industrial demand.
China
● The People’s Bank of China cut rates on structural policy tools by 25 basis points, setting one-year relending rates at 1.25%.
● The central bank increased quotas for relending programs to support sectors such as agriculture and technology.
● Authorities also lowered the down-payment requirement for commercial property mortgages to 30%.
● The PBOC said there is room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, citing a stable yuan and manageable pressure on bank profits.
South Korea
● The Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 2.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
● The central bank removed references to possible rate cuts, signaling caution as the won has weakened about 2% against the dollar so far in 2026.
Australia and New Zealand
● New Zealand’s manufacturing sector rebounded strongly in December, with all sub-indexes expanding and new orders at their highest level since July 2021, reflecting improved business confidence.
● In Australia, markets are increasingly cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank’s February meeting, with money markets pricing a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
● Inflation pressures remain elevated in Australia, private demand is strong, and the housing market is accelerating again, complicating the outlook for looser policy.
Global
● The World Bank upgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7% from 2.3%, citing unexpected resilience despite higher tariffs.
● U.S. growth for 2025 was revised up to 2.2% from 1.6%, largely due to stronger investment in AI-related technologies.
● Despite these upgrades, the World Bank warned the global economy is on track for its weakest decade of growth since the 1960s.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The MXN/JPY is up more than 2.70%.
● The ZAR/JPY is up more than 1.85%.
● The NZD/JPY is up more than 1%.
● The USD/JPY is up more than 0.95%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 4%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 3.70%.
● The EUR/MXN is down more than 2.15%.
Commodities
● Gold, Silver and Copper prices all reached new highs.
● Platinum prices are up for the 2nd week in a row.
● Natural Gas prices are down for the 3rd week in a row.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 6%.
Indices
● The KOSPI index is up more than 6.85%.
● The Nikkei 225 index is up more than 5%.
Shares
Tops
● Builders FirstSource: +23.41%
● Vamos Locado de Caminhoes: +20.10%
● Lennar: +18.52%
● Texas Pacific Land: +17.77%
● Bunge: +17.63%
● Glencore: +16.61%
● Weyerhaeuser: +16.52%
● D.R Horton: +16.21%
● KLA: +14.33%
● Intel: +13.37%
● Braskem: +12.65%
● Mondelez International: +11.48%
● Antofagasta: +10.99%
Flops
● Hapvida Participacoes: -17.96%
● Atlassian: -19.31%
● Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: -14.50%
● Datadog: -13.67%
● Intuit: -13.43%
● ServiceNow: -12.52%
● Salesforce: -11.68%
● Synchrony Financial: -10.83%
● PDD Holdings: -10.15%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 19 January
● 02:00 AM - Chinese GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4)
○ Previous: 4.8%
○ Forecast: 4.4%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (December)
○ Previous: 4.8%
○ Forecast: 5%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (December)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 1.2%
● 01:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (December)
○ Previous: 2.2%
○ Forecast: 2.1%
Tuesday 20 January
● 07:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (November)
○ Previous: 5.1%
○ Forecast: 5.1%
● 10:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (January)
○ Previous: 45.8
○ Forecast: 42
Wednesday 21 January
● 07:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (December)
○ Previous: 3.2%
○ Forecast: 3.1%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (December)
○ Previous: ¥322.2B
○ Forecast: ¥ -400B
Thursday 22 January
● 01:30 PM - American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q3)
○ Previous: 3.8%
○ Forecast: 4.3%
● 03:00 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 03:00 PM - American Personal Income MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 03:00 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.3%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 11:30 PM - Japanese Rate YoY (December)
○ Previous: 2.9%
○ Forecast: 2.7%
Friday 23 January
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 50.3
● 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Global Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 0.75%
○ Forecast: 0.75%
● 07:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (December)
○ Previous: -0.1%
○ Forecast: -0.2%
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Composite PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 50
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 50.7
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 08:15 AM - French HCOB Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 47.0
○ Forecast: 48.5
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Composite PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 51.3
○ Forecast: 52.2
● 08:30 AM - German HCOB Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 09:00 AM - European HCOB Composite PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 51.5
○ Forecast: 52.3
● 09:00 AM - European HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 49.7
● 09:00 AM - European HCOB Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 52.4
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 50.6
○ Forecast: 50.8
● 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 51.5
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 51.8
○ Forecast: 52
● 02:45 PM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (January)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 52.3
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 20 January
● United Airlines
● NETFLIX
● 3M
● US Bancorp
Wednesday 21 January
● JOHNSON&JOHNSON
● Halliburton
Thursday 22 January
● Abbott Lab
● McCormick & Co
● American Airlines
● Alcoa
● INTEL
● GENERAL ELECTRIC
● PROCTER & GAMBLE
Friday 23 January
● Ericsson
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 16 January 2026
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