Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- In Switzerland, consumer prices remained flat in July 2025 compared with the previous month, while annual inflation slowed to just 0.2%. The subdued price growth reflects a stable cost environment, with little upward pressure from either domestic demand or imports.
- In the United States, political developments have stirred financial market speculation. President Donald Trump’s latest remarks on possible candidates to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve triggered a flurry of bets in prediction markets, highlighting uncertainty over the Fed’s future policy direction.
- Labour market data in New Zealand showed a slight uptick in unemployment, with the June 2025 quarter recording a jobless rate of 5.2%, compared with 5.1% in the March quarter.
- Both the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics have recently come under scrutiny over the accuracy of their employment data, raising questions about the reliability of official labour market assessments.
- Economic indicators from the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors added to concerns about slowing momentum. The latest ISM reports for both industries came in weaker than any analysts had predicted, revealing cooling business activity and contracting employment. Price components in the surveys remain elevated, largely due to tariff-related cost pressures.
- In Germany, trade and industrial activity weakened further. Exports to the U.S. fell 2.1% in June to €11.8 billion, the lowest monthly value since February 2022. Industrial production dropped by 1.9% over the same period, bringing output back to levels last seen in the first half of 2020.
- China posted stronger export growth in July, with overseas shipments rising 7.2% year-on-year compared with 5.8% in June, despite the ongoing impact of U.S. tariffs. However, trade with the United States continued to shrink sharply: exports to the U.S. fell 22% from a year earlier, following a 16% decline in June and a steep 35% drop in May. Imports into China rose 4.1%, and the country’s trade surplus widened to $98 billion. Chinese authorities reiterated their pledge to boost domestic demand in the face of uneven external conditions.
- In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England cut its key interest rate to 4% from 4.25%, marking the fifth rate reduction in the past year as inflationary pressures persist alongside signs of a cooling jobs market. U.K. inflation accelerated to 3.6% in June, with unemployment rising to 4.7%, and is expected to peak at 4% in September. The decision to cut rates was contentious within the Bank, requiring two rounds of voting before a consensus was reached.
- In India, the central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.50%, opting for caution as the country navigates uncertainties tied to U.S. trade policy. Policymakers signalled that the external environment remains a key risk to India’s economic outlook, warranting a wait-and-see approach for now.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The British Pound strengthened against most majors.
- The NZD/USD is likely to close above its weekly Ichimoku cloud.
- The USD/CHF is up for the second week in a row.
Commodities
- Oil prices down more than 5%.
- Sugar prices are down for the 3rd week in a row.
- Silver prices are up more than 3%.
- Oats prices are down for the 5th week in a row.
Indices
Shares
Tops
- Raiadrogasilon: +31.25%
- Shopify: +20.52%
- Fresnillo: +19.50%
- Axon Entreprise: +15.73%
- IDEXX Laboratories: +15.55%
- Applovin: +15.09%
- Smith & Nephew: +15.01%
- Palantir Technologies: +13.88%
- Melrose Industries: +12.90%
- Arista Networks: +11.84%
Flops
- Gartner: -33.08%
- Fortinet: -26.37%
- Super Micro Computer: -24.86%
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals: -19.27%
- Teleperformance: -17.80%
- GlobalFoundries: -17.02%
- On Semiconductor: -16.76%
- Zalando: -14.42
- Hikma Pharmaceuticals: -12.59%
- Bayer: -10.10%
This Week’s News to Follow
Tuesday 12 August
- 01:30 AM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (July)
- Previous: 5
- Forecast: 3
- 04:30 AM - Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 3.85%
- Forecast: 3.60%
- 06:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (June)
- Previous: 4.70%
- Forecast: 4.60%
- 09:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
- Previous: 52.7
- Forecast: 45
- 12:30 PM - American Core Inflation Rate YoY (July)
- Previous: 2.9%
- Forecast: 3%
- 12:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (July)
- Previous: 2.7%
- Forecast: 2.8%
Thursday 14 August
- 06:00 AM - UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2)
- Previous: 1.3%
- Forecast: 0.7%
- 06:00 AM - UK GDP MoM (June)
- Previous: -0.1%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- 12:30 PM - American PPI MoM (July)
- Previous: 0%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 11:50 PM - Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2)
- Previous: 0.0%
- Forecast: 0.1%
Friday 15 August
- 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (July)
- Previous: 6.8%
- Forecast: 6.4%
- 02:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (July)
- Previous: 4.8%
- Forecast: 5.0%
- 12:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: 0.5%
02:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (August)
- Previous: 61.7
- Forecast: 60.5
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 11 August
- Barrick Gold
- Rockwell Automation
Tuesday 12 August
- Swiss Life
- Hannover Rueck
Wednesday 13 August
- CISCO
Thursday 14 August
- RWE
- ThyssenKrupp
- Swiss Re
- Alibaba
- JD.com
- Henkel AG & Co
Source: Trading Economics, The Wall Street Journal, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 1 August 2025
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