- On Monday 9th: Chinese Inflation Rate YoY
- On Tuesday 10th: Australian NAB Business Confidence and Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
- On Wednesday 11th: American Core Inflation Rate YoY, American Inflation Rate YoY and Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
- On Thursday 12th: UK GDP MoM, Swiss National Bank Rate Decision, European ECB Interest Rate Decision, American PPI MoM, European ECB Press Conference, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
- On Friday 13th: German Balance of Trade
Monday 9th of December
China's annual inflation rate slowed to 0.3% in October 2024, marking a nine-month low. This figure fell short of market expectations and the previous month's reading of 0.4%. The decline underscores the persistent deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy, despite recent government stimulus efforts. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.3%, exceeding the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline and following a flat reading in September. Market participants anticipate a slight uptick in November's annual inflation rate, with expectations for a 0.5% reading, scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
- Oracle
Tuesday 10th of December
Australia's business confidence surged in October 2024, as the NAB Business Confidence Index climbed to 5. This marked a significant improvement from the previous month's reading of -2 and reached the highest level since January 2023. The positive sentiment was widespread across most industries, with the exception of construction and retail. However, as economic conditions continue to evolve, market participants anticipate a slight moderation in business confidence in November, with an expected reading of 4.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), once again, decided to hold its cash rate at 4.35% in November for the eighth consecutive month. While headline inflation has eased, the central bank remains cautious about underlying inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector. The RBA emphasized the need for ongoing vigilance to ensure that inflation returns to the target range. Market participants expect the RBA to maintain its current monetary policy stance, with the cash rate remaining at 4.35% in the near future.
Wednesday 11th of December
Core consumer price inflation in the United States remained steady at 3.3% in October 2024, marking a three-month high. This figure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, aligns with market expectations. Notably, prices for services, particularly those less tied to energy, increased at a slightly faster pace.
Overall US inflation also accelerated to 2.6% in October 2024, marking the first increase in seven months. This uptick, in line with market forecasts, follows a period of declining inflation rates. Market participants will closely monitor the release of November's core inflation rate, scheduled for 1:30 PM GMT, to gauge the trajectory of price pressures.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) took a more aggressive stance on monetary policy in October 2024, cutting its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%. This move, in line with market expectations, reflects the central bank's response to the sharp slowdown in Canadian inflation.
The BoC's latest Monetary Policy Report indicates that headline inflation is projected to remain near target levels in the near future. The bank also expects GDP growth to accelerate in 2025. Despite these positive developments, the BoC remains cautious and has signaled its intention to continue easing monetary policy if necessary. Market participants anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming decision, scheduled for 2:45 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
- Photronics
- Industria de Diseno Textil
- ADOBE
Thursday 12th of December
The UK economy experienced a setback in September 2024, contracting by 0.1%. This marks the first decline in five months, reversing the 0.2% growth seen in August. The contraction was more significant than the anticipated 0.2% expansion. Market participants will closely monitor the October GDP data, scheduled for release at 7:00 AM GMT.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continued its easing cycle in September 2024, lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%. This marked the third consecutive rate cut, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since early 2023.
The SNB indicated its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed and suggested that additional interest rate cuts might be necessary in the coming months to maintain price stability over the medium term. The central bank noted that inflation in Switzerland had significantly eased compared to the previous quarter. Market participants anticipate another rate cut in the upcoming decision, with the key rate expected to decrease to 0.75%.
The European Central Bank (ECB) took another step towards easing monetary policy in October 2024, lowering borrowing costs by 25 basis points. This move, in line with market expectations, brought the key deposit rate to 3.25%. While inflation is projected to ease, particularly due to declining energy prices, the ECB remains cautious about domestic inflationary pressures, notably strong wage growth and sluggish productivity.
Despite the more optimistic inflation outlook, the ECB emphasized the need for further data before making significant policy changes. Market participants anticipate another rate cut in December, with the European Deposit Facility Rate expected to decrease to 3% when the data is released at 01:15 PM GMT. The ECB Press Conference, scheduled for 1:45 PM GMT, will provide additional insights into the bank's policy stance.
US factory gate prices increased by 0.2% month-over-month in October 2024, matching market expectations. This followed an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in September. On an annual basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 2.4%, surpassing both the previous reading of 1.9% and market forecasts of 2.3%. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also accelerated, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. Market participants will be closely monitoring the November PPI data, scheduled for release at 1:30 PM GMT.
Australian consumer confidence took a hit in November 2024, declining to 5.30% from 6.20% in the previous month. As the year draws to a close, market participants anticipate a further decrease in consumer confidence to 3.2% in December. The December data is scheduled for release at 11:30 PM GMT.
The Bank of Japan's index for big manufacturers' sentiment remained steady at 13 in Q3 2024. This marks the second consecutive quarter of unchanged sentiment and reflects continued moderate economic recovery. Market participants expect the index to remain stable at 13 in Q4 2024, with the data scheduled for release at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
- Broadcom
Friday 13th of December
Germany's trade surplus contracted further in September 2024, reaching €17 billion. This figure marks a decline from the previously revised €21.4 billion surplus recorded in August. The September surplus also fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a €20.9 billion surplus. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, market participants anticipate a slight uptick in Germany's trade balance for October, projecting a surplus of €17.5 billion. The official data for October is scheduled to be released at 7:00 AM GMT, providing further insights into the nation's trade dynamics.
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