- On Monday 16th: Chinese Industrial Production YoY, Chinese Retail Sales YoY and European, British and American Services and Manufacturing PMI Flash
- On Tuesday 17th: UK Unemployment Rate, German Ifo Business Climate, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Canadian Inflation Rate YoY, American Retail Sales MoM, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and Japanese Balance of Trade
- On Wednesday 18th: UK Inflation Rate YoY, American Building Permits Prel, and American Fed Interest Rate Decision
- On Thursday 19th: Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision, German GfK Consumer Confidence, UK BoE Interest Rate Decision, American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final and Japanese Inflation Rate YoY
- On Friday 20th: UK Retail Sales MoM, American Core PCE Price Index MoM, American Personal Income MoM and American Personal Spending MoM
Monday 16th of December
China's industrial production growth softened in October 2024, expanding by 5.3% year-on-year. This was below market expectations of 5.6% and marked a slowdown from the previous month's four-month high of 5.4%. Market analysts anticipate a further deceleration in November, with industrial production growth expected to decline to 5.0%. The data is scheduled to be released at 02:00 AM GMT.
China's retail sales growth accelerated in October 2024, rising by 4.8% year-over-year. This exceeded market expectations of 3.8% and marked the strongest growth since February. Market analysts expect a slight slowdown in November, with retail sales growth forecast to decrease to 4.5%. The data is scheduled to be released at 02:00 AM GMT.
The Eurozone's manufacturing sector continued its decline in November 2024, with the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI falling to 45.2. This indicates a deepening contraction in the sector. While the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI was revised slightly upward to 49.5, it still marked the first decline in service sector output since January. Market participants anticipate a slight improvement in both manufacturing and services PMIs for December, with forecasts of 45.4 and 50.7, respectively. The data is scheduled to be released at 09:00 AM GMT.
The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 48 in November 2024, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This was the most significant contraction since February and marked a decline from the previous month's reading of 49.9.
The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised upward to 50.8 in November 2024, suggesting some growth in business activity. However, this represented the slowest pace of expansion since the current expansionary phase began in November 2023.
Market participants anticipate a relatively unchanged or slightly weaker outlook for both manufacturing and services PMIs in December, with forecasts of 48 and 49.5, respectively. The data is scheduled to be released at 9:30 AM GMT.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 49.7 in November 2024, indicating a near-stabilization in the manufacturing sector. This was a slight improvement from the previous month's reading of 48.5.
The S&P Global US Services PMI, while revised downward to 56.1, remained above the 55 mark, suggesting continued growth in the services sector. This was the strongest growth since March 2022.
Market participants anticipate a relatively stable outlook for both manufacturing and services PMIs in December, with forecasts of 50 and 56, respectively. The data is scheduled to be released at 02:45 AM GMT.
Major Earning Release:
- BHP Group
Tuesday 17th of December
The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to September 2024, up from 4% in the previous period. This increase exceeded market expectations of 4.1% and marked the highest level since May. Market participants expect the UK Unemployment Rate for October to decrease to 4.2% when the data is released at 07:00 AM GMT.
Germany's economic sentiment weakened in November 2024, with the Ifo Business Climate Index falling to 85.7 from 86.5 in October. This decline was below market expectations of 86 and was attributed to concerns about the political situation in Germany and potential trade tensions with the US. Analysts expect the German Ifo Business Climate for December to decrease to 85 when the data is released at 09:00 AM GMT.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany also declined in November 2024, falling to 7.4 from 13.1 in October. This significant drop was primarily driven by concerns about the political uncertainty in Germany and the potential impact of global trade tensions. Traders expect the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December to increase to 28 when the data is released at 10:00 AM GMT.
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2% in October 2024, surpassing market expectations of 1.9%. While this marked a slight increase from the previous month's low of 1.6%, the overall trend remains positive, with inflation staying within the Bank of Canada's target range. Market participants will follow the Canadian Inflation Rate YoY for November at 01:30 PM GMT.
US retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. This followed an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in September. Market participants expect the American Retail Sales MoM for November to increase to 0.5% when the statistic is published at 01:30 PM GMT.
Australian consumer confidence declined in November 2024, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 5.30% from 6.20% in the previous month. Market participants expect Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for December to decrease to 3.2% when the data is released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Japan's trade deficit narrowed significantly in October 2024, falling to JPY 461.25 billion from JPY 702.86 billion in the same month last year. However, this was still below market expectations of a JPY 360.4 billion deficit. Market participants expect the Japanese Balance of Trade for November to increase to ¥-505.0B when the data is released at 11:50 PM GMT.
Wednesday 18th of December
The annual inflation rate in the UK climbed to 2.3% in October 2024, surpassing both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. This marked the highest level in six months, up from 1.7% in September. Market analysts predict that the UK Inflation Rate YoY for November will remain unchanged at 2.3%, with the data scheduled to be released at 7:00 AM GMT.
Building permits in the United States declined slightly in October 2024, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.419 million. While this represents a modest decrease from the previous month, the overall level remains relatively strong. Market analysts anticipate a slight uptick in building permits for November, with the forecast suggesting an increase to 1.437 million. The data is scheduled to be released at 1:30 PM GMT.
The Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes revealed a cautiously optimistic outlook on the US economy. While acknowledging the recent progress made in taming inflation and maintaining a strong labor market, policymakers expressed caution about the potential impact of future economic developments.
The minutes highlighted the challenges posed by the volatility in recent economic data and uncertainty surrounding the neutral interest rate. Some participants advocated for maintaining restrictive monetary policy to ensure persistent inflation is brought under control, while others favored a more aggressive pace of rate cuts to support economic growth.
Despite the recent political developments, the Federal Reserve meeting did not explicitly address their potential impact on the economy. However, officials emphasized the need for flexibility in policymaking to respond to evolving circumstances.
Market participants anticipate a 25-basis point interest rate cut to 4.5% at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for release at 7:00 PM GMT.
Major Earning Release:
- Micron Technology
Thursday 19th of December
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its key short-term interest rate steady at 0.25% during its October meeting, in line with market expectations. This decision comes as Japan navigates a shifting political landscape following recent elections and amid growing global economic uncertainty.
Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need for a cautious approach, citing concerns about the uncertain global economic outlook. Despite two rate hikes earlier this year, the BoJ indicated that it would take time to assess the impact of these measures and potential risks. The central bank remains committed to further tightening monetary policy if economic conditions warrant.
However, market participants anticipate a more aggressive stance from the BoJ, with a potential rate hike to 0.5% at the next policy meeting, scheduled for release at 3:00 AM GMT.
German consumer confidence deteriorated significantly in December 2024, with the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator falling to -23.3 points. This marked the lowest level since May and was worse than market expectations of -18.6 points. The decline suggests a significant deterioration in consumer sentiment, bringing it back to levels seen in December 2023. Market participants will be watching closely for the German GfK Consumer Confidence for January, which is scheduled to be released at 7:00 AM GMT.
The Bank of England (BoE) implemented a 25-basis point interest rate cut in its November 2024 meeting, bringing the Bank Rate to 4.75%. This marked the second rate cut in four months, as the central bank responded to signs of slowing inflation in the UK economy.
While September's inflation rate dropped to a three-year low of 1.7%, underlying price pressures, particularly in services, remained elevated at 4.9%. The BoE anticipates that the recent budget announcement by the Labour Party could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, peaking at 0.5 percentage points higher than previously forecast. The central bank now projects inflation to end 2024 at 2.5% and 2026 at 2.2%.
Despite the rate cut, the BoE expects the budget to boost GDP growth by 0.75% at its peak impact. Market participants anticipate that the BoE will maintain interest rates at 4.75% at its next policy meeting, scheduled for 12:00 PM GMT.
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, matching the initial estimate. This represents a slight slowdown from the 3% growth rate recorded in the second quarter. Market participants anticipate that the final estimate for the third quarter GDP growth rate will remain unchanged at 2.8%, with the data scheduled to be released at 1:30 PM GMT.
Japan's annual inflation rate slowed down in October 2024, dropping to 2.3% from 2.5% in the previous month. This marked the lowest inflation rate since January. However, market analysts anticipate a slight uptick in November, with the inflation rate expected to rise to 2.5%. The data is scheduled to be released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Major Earning Releases:
- Accenture
- Nike
- FedEx
Friday 20th of December
UK retail sales declined by 0.7% month-over-month in October 2024, a significant drop compared to the previous month and worse than market expectations. This decline was attributed to low consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the Budget announcement. Market participants will follow the UK Retail Sales MoM for November when the data is released at 07:00 AM GMT.
The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October 2024, matching market expectations. While service prices increased, goods prices declined. Year-over-year, core PCE inflation rose to 2.8%, the highest level in six months. Traders expect the American Core PCE Price Index MoM for November to remain unchanged at 0.3% when the data is released at 01:30 PM GMT.
US personal income increased by 0.6% month-over-month in October 2024, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%. This was the largest increase in seven months. Traders expect the US Personal Income MoM for November to decrease to 0.4% when the data is released at 01:30 PM GMT.
US personal spending increased by 0.4% month-over-month in October 2024, slightly below the upwardly revised 0.6% increase in September but still ahead of market expectations. Market participants expect the US Personal Spending MoM for November to increase to 0.5% when the data is released at 01:30 PM GMT.
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