On Monday 9th: Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence is due.
On Tuesday 10th: Australia’s NAB Business Confidence is released.
On Wednesday 11th: German CPI data and the US PPI are due, along with minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting.
On Thursday 12th: UK GDP figures and US Inflation figures are released.
On Friday 13th: Chinese CPI, PPI, and Trade Balance figures are due to be published, along with the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Weekly Outlook
Another earnings season has arrived! Some of the bigger US companies will start reporting their earnings for the July-September quarter (Q2) this week, and experts are forecasting soft growth will be posted across most sectors.
Pepsico, one of the first to report, increased its yearly sales and profit expectations in July after the snacks and drinks giant easily surpassed quarterly projections thanks to price increases and strong demand. The company is anticipated to report quarterly profits of $2.17 per share in its next report, which would represent a year-over-year change of +10.2%, according to Zacks Consensus Estimate. Revenues are also anticipated to reach $23.42 billion, a 6.6% increase from the same period last year.
Investors will also be watching for highly anticipated US Inflation figures coming out of the US this week. The Federal Reserve is due to meet again on the 1st of November, and while inflation has been trending up again lately, many believe the chance of another rate hike is becoming more likely. Watch this space!
Monday 9th of October
Australia's Consumer Sentiment index from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute dropped 1.5% in September, to 79.7, hovering around its weakest level since the height of the pandemic. With household savings declining, the RBA seeming less hawkish, and budget and taxation worries persisting, the latest report may follow the same trend with a forecast drop of around 0.7% when the report is released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 10th of October
The National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index rose to 2 in August from the previous month’s 1; this was the highest reading since January but still quite low by historical standards. Overall confidence was low, but it plunged particularly in the mining sector. When the new report is published at 12:30 AM GMT, expectations are for a drop to -2 for September.
Major Earnings Releases:
Pepsico
Neogen Corporation
Manchester United
Wednesday 11th of October
Preliminary estimates due to be confirmed in a final report today at 6:00 AM GMT revealed that in September, German inflation fell to 4.5% from 6.1% the previous month. Price increases for both services and commodities slowed to their lowest rate since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine in February last year.
In the US, producer prices rose by 0.7% in August, the most since June of last year. Producer price inflation on an annual basis hit a four-month high of 1.6%, while the core rate declined to 2.2%, the lowest level since January 2021. When the latest figures are published at 12:30 PM GMT, the expectation is that there will be a 0.4% monthly rise in the headline rate and 0.2% rise in the core rate for September.
The Federal Reserve will release its Monetary Policy Meeting minutes at 6:00 PM GMT today. At its September 2023 meeting, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at the 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%, following a 25 basis points increase in July and in accordance with market expectations, but signaling there could be another increase this year.
Thursday 12th of October
UK GDP data is due at 6:00 AM GMT today. The British economy contracted by 0.5% in July, the worst annual fall to date this way and the reversal of June's 0.5% expansion. Expectations are for 0.1% drop in August.
US Inflation data is due to be published at 12:30 PM GMT today. For the second consecutive month, annual inflation jumped, this time to 3.7% from 3.2% in July. Inflation has increased due to a combination of factors, including the recent uptick in oil prices and base effects from the previous year. However, the core inflation rate, which includes food and energy, slowed for the fifth consecutive month to 4.3%, as anticipated by the market. Headline inflation for September is forecast to climb slightly to 3.8%, while the core rate is expected to fall around 4.1%.
Major Earnings Releases:
Infosys
Delta Airlines
Friday 13th of October
A range of Chinese economic data is due this morning from 1:30 AM GMT. China's headline inflation increased to 0.1% year over year in August, compared to market expectations of an increase to 0.2% and following the first decline in over two years to -0.3% one month prior. Expectations are for an increase of 0.2% for September year over year.
Chinese Producer Prices have also been lagging significantly. After falling 4.4% in the previous month, prices declined 3.0% year over year in August, in line with market expectations. The government has taken a number of steps to increase demand and enhance the post-pandemic recovery, but progress has been slow. -2.5% growth is expected for September.
China's trade balance, due at 3:00 AM GMT, showed a decrease in the surplus to USD 68.36 billion in August from USD 78.65 billion in the same month the previous year, falling short of USD 73.9 billion market expectations. Due to continuously low domestic and international demand, the level was at its lowest level since May, with exports declining faster than imports. A bump to around USD 70 billion is forecast for September.
Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be published at 2:00 PM GMT. Consumer confidence as measured by the index hit 68.1 in September from an initial reading of 67.7 but has been trending down for a few months. New data is expected to stay on trend with a slight dip to around 68.
Major Earnings Releases:
United Health
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Wells Fargo & Co
BlackRock Inc
Progressive Corp
Citigroup
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