On Monday 16th: The US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due, along with Inflation data from New Zealand.
On Tuesday 17th: The RBA releases Monetary Policy Minutes, the UK releases Employment data, Germany publishes its ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, Canada’s inflation data is due and the US releases its Retail Sales data.
On Wednesday 18th: China releases GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, the UK releases new Inflation figures, US Building Permits are due and Japan publishes its Trade Balance.
On Thursday 19th: Australian Employment figures are released, along with the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Japanese Inflation data.
On Friday 20th: The UK publishes its Retail Sales figures.
It's a big week of earnings reports ahead this week, with the clear headliner being Elon Musk’s Tesla. The company performed better than expected when it published its second-quarter earnings in July.
However, it was reported that increased sales were mostly driven by discounts and rewards, which caused operating margins to drop below 10% and gross profit margins fell to just over 18%. Tesla is predicted to report quarterly profits of $0.73 per share in its next report, representing a -30.5% year-over-year drop, according to Zacks Investment Research. Revenues are predicted to be $24.38 billion, a 13.6% increase over the previous quarter.
Also this week, watch out for Inflation data from around the world but particularly from the UK, as it painstakingly inches towards the Bank of England’s target range. The bank board’s next meeting is coming up at the beginning of next month, so these figures, plus the Employment data also due this week will be critical to the next decision on interest rates.
Monday 16th of October
Against expectations of -10, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly increased to 1.9 in September from -19 in August. When the new report comes out at 12:30 PM GMT, expectations are for a slight dip to -1.5.
Quarterly Inflation data for New Zealand is due today at 9:45 PM GMT. Second-quarter inflation decelerated to 6%, marking its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2021, and represented a decline from the previous period's rate of 6.7%. Quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.9% is expected for the period ending in September, and only a slight drop to 5.8% is forecast for the annualized figure.
Major Earnings Releases:
Texas Instruments Inc
HDFC Bank Limited
Rio Tinto
The Charles Schwab Corporation
Tuesday 17th of October
The Reserve Bank of Australia will post its most recent Monetary Policy Minutes today at 12:30 AM GMT. During the first meeting with new Governor Michele Bullock, the RBA decided to keep its cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. The board's decision, which was in line with market expectations, was that inflation had hit its peak but was still too high and would remain so for some time so conditions would need to remain restrictive for the time being.
The UK will publish a collection of Employment data from 6:00 AM GMT today. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.3% from May to July this year, the highest level since the third quarter of 2021. Employment in the United Kingdom also fell by 207 thousand in the three months ending in July, coming on the heels of a decline of 66 thousand the previous period. Among other data, this suggests that the labour market may be cooling down following many months of the Bank of England's heavy tightening of monetary policy. A further decrease of 50 thousand positions is expected up to September, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany is due at 9:00 AM GMT today. In September the index result rose to -11.4 from -12.3 the previous month, above market estimates of -15.0, however, expectations are for a further decline to around -16 this month.
Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated to 4% in August, from 3.3% in July, above analysts' forecasts. Inflationary pressure has seemingly returned to the Canadian economy, if forecasts of a rise to 4.5% this month are correct, this would represent the third consecutive increase in consumer prices after reaching a two-year low of 2.8% in June, boosting the chance that the BoC may yet embark on additional monetary tightening. The new figures will be confirmed at 12:30 PM GMT.
US Retail Sales are due at 12:30 PM GMT today. Having increased 0.6% month over month in August, which was above the 0.2% increase that had been predicted, consumer spending remains strong, despite rising prices and interest rates. The new report is expected to show growth of around 0.2% for September.
Major Earnings Releases:
Johnson & Johnson
Bank of America
Lockheed Martin
Goldman Sachs
Wednesday 18th of October
A range of Chinese economic data is due to be released from 2:00 AM GMT today including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales among others.
The Chinese economy grew 6.3% year over year in Q2 this year, which was stronger than the 4.5% expansion seen in Q1 but still below the 7.3% expansion predicted by the market. 4.4% growth is anticipated for the third quarter. In August, Industrial Production increased by 4.5% annually, which was higher than the 3.7% growth seen in July, and forecasts are for 4.3% growth in September. Meanwhile, in the same month, retail sales grew 4.6% annually, accelerating from the 2.5% rise seen in July and are expected to show 4.5% growth in September.
Inflationary pressures on British consumers slowed in August, with CPI coming in at 6.7%, down from 6.8% in July. Thanks to moderating food inflation and falling costs for accommodation, this recorded the lowest rate since February 2022. The core rate, which does not include such cyclical components as food and energy, fell to 6.2%, the lowest level seen since March. When the new data is released at 6:00 AM GMT, the headline rate is expected to have decreased to 6.5%, while the core rate is also expected to fall to around 5.9%.
US Building Permits are due at 12:30 PM GMT today. The number of permits issued increased by 6.8% to 1.541 million seasonally adjusted annual rates in August, which was barely altered from the initial estimate of 1.543 million and the highest level since October 2022. The new preliminary data is forecast to show a decline to 1.45 million for September.
Japan's trade deficit fell drastically to JPY 930.5 billion in August, from JPY 2,790.4 billion the previous month, contrary to market expectations of a JPY 659.1 billion gap. A slight recovery to around JPY -800 billion is expected when the latest data is released 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
Tesla
Procter & Gamble
ASML Holding
Netflix
Abbott Laboratories
Morgan Stanley
Thursday 19th of October
Australian Employment data is due from 12:30 AM GMT today. Over 64 thousand new positions were added to the economy in August, after losing just over a thousand positions the month prior. In September around 15 thousand new jobs are expected. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Australia remained steady in August at 3.7%, and is expected to remain there for September.
The US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be published at 12:30 PM GMT today. In September, the index dropped to -13.5 from the level of 12 in August, missing market forecasts, however, there was an uptick in the survey's future indices, indicating that respondents anticipate growth in the next six months. Analysts feel the index will remain in negative territory for September at around -6.8.
Japanese Inflation reports are due today at 11:30 PM GMT. For the first time in three months, Japan's annual inflation rate fell in August, to 3.2% from 3.3% the previous month. Also, despite projections for a small decline to 3%, Japan's core consumer price index (which excludes fresh food but includes gasoline expenses) climbed 3.1% in August from a year earlier. Small reductions are expected for both rates for September to around 3.1% for the headline rate and 2.9% for the core rate.
Major Earnings Releases:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
Union Pacific Corp
Philip Morris International
AT&T Corp
Intuitive Surgical
L’Oréal
EssilorLuxottica
Pernod Ricard
Renault
Vivendi
Friday 20th of October
The UK’s Retail Sales rebounded by 0.4% in August from the previous month, somewhat making up for the 1.1% drop seen in July but still falling short of the market's expectations. When the newest figures come out at 6:00 AM GMT, the expectation is that there will be around 0.3% growth month over month in September and 3.5% growth year over year.
Major Earnings Releases:
American Express
NextEra Energy
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