On Monday 20th: The EU Consumer Confidence survey is due.
On Tuesday 21st: The RBA publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes, Services and Manufacturing PMIs are due for Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK and the US, the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany is released and Canada publishes its CPI data.
On Wednesday 22nd: RBNZ meets on Monetary Policy, the Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany is due, and the FOMC releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
On Thursday 23rd: CPI data from the Eurozone, US Initial Jobless Claims and Japanese CPI data are all published.
On Friday 24th: The UK’s Gfk Consumer Confidence, US Personal Income and Spending, US Core PCE and US New Home Sales are released.
Weekly outlook
A huge week for earnings with some big global names still to come including retailers Alibaba, and big box stores Walmart and Home Depot to name a few. Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, has had its struggles in recent times with regulatory issues and pandemic management measures playing havoc on the company. In late 2020, the Chinese government also halted the initial public offering (IPO) of Ant Group, an affiliate business of Alibaba Group that would have been the largest IPO ever recorded. Since then, Alibaba's stock prices have decreased by 15% within a month and by 50% within a year.
There's also plenty of economic news on the way this week, with a number of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes released and Consumer Confidence surveys among much more. The global mood seems to be slowly on the mend, as inflation in many major economies has eventually started to yield to higher interest rates. The ‘soft landing’ that's been spoken of for months by most countries may be not too far off the horizon yet.
Monday 20th of February
The February Consumer Confidence survey for the Eurozone will be released today from 3:00 PM GMT. Primarily as a result of decreased energy costs and recovery fund spending, consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose to a year-high of -20.9 last month, the highest level since February 2022. This month's forecast is for a further increase to -18.2.
Tuesday 21st of February
This Tuesday at 12:30 AM GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to publish its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. These are a thorough record of the Board's most recent meeting and give in-depth insights into the economic factors that informed its decision on where to set interest rates at its meeting two weeks ago.
Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due throughout the day for a number of countries from 12:30 AM GMT onwards, including Japan, France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US. If the resulting number in the index is more than 50, it implies industry growth, whereas a number below 50 suggests industry contraction. Flash and Final versions of this report are released around one week apart, and the Flash report is often the most impactful. Forecasts are mixed, but generally heading towards more positive growth outlooks across the board for both sectors.
The ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment for Germany is due out today at 10:00 AM GMT. Having surged by 40.2 points from the previous month to 16.9 and marking its first positive reading since February last year, the index is expected to show further growth to 22 for February.
Canada also releases its CPI data from 1:30 PM GMT, and it's hoped significant improvement to inflation figures will be shown in the report.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Walmart
- Home Depot
- HSBC
- Medtronic
- Palo Alto Networks
- Capgemini
- Chesapeake Energy
- BHP Group
Wednesday 22nd of February
New Zealanders will be bracing themselves for another RBNZ Monetary Policy Meeting which is expected to yield yet another rate rise from 4.25% to 4.75% at 1:00 AM GMT. This would mark the 10th straight rate increase since increases began in October 2021, and it's hoped the bank will max out its tightening cycle once it hits a top of 5%.
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany is to be released at 9:00 AM GMT Wednesday. Since the index increased by 1.6 points from the previous month to 90.2 in January, expectations are for another slight bump on the back of cautious confidence that supply chain stress is easing and inflation is beginning to decline.
The Federal Reserve is due to release the Minutes from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting which led to a 25 basis point bump to 4.75% held on February 1st. Released at 7:00 PM GMT, it's a comprehensive account, including insights into the economic and financial factors that affected their decision on where to set interest rates.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- NVIDIA
- Rio Tinto
- Genmab
- TJX Companies
- Baidu
- Danone
- eBay
Thursday 23rd of February
Final CPI data from the Eurozone is expected to confirm today at 10:00 AM GMT that further declines in the rate of inflation for the month of January are expected. A drop from 9.2% to 8.5% is forecast which is partly due to energy prices rising at a slower pace.
The Initial Jobless Claims report from the US is expected to show an increase in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits when it's released at 1:30 PM GMT. Forecast to increase from 194K to 197K for February, there is still a long way to go before the labor market would be considered ‘cooled.’
CPI data from Japan, released at 11:30 PM GMT, is expected to show a slight increase in the rate of inflation from 4% in December to 4.1% for January. An increase in the cost of imported raw materials and a weakening yen has contributed to the highest levels of inflation since the early 1990’s.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Alibaba
- Deutsche Telekom
- EssilorLuxottica
- Galaxy Entertainment Group
- AXA
- Moderna
- Saint Gobain
- Rolls Royce Holdings
- Valeo
Friday 24th of February
As British households continue to struggle with stubbornly high inflation and mounting energy prices, the UK Gfk Consumer Confidence index dropped to -45 in January from -42 in December, confounding forecasts for a minor rebound to -40. It is hoped a slight increase to -42 again will be realized when the index is released today at 12:01 AM GMT.
A number of reports from the US are due from 1:30 PM GMT including the monthly Personal Income for January, the monthly Personal Spending for January and the Core PCE Price Index also for January.
Personal Income is expected to rise 0.7% after a previous 0.2% rise, while spending is expected to also increase 0.9% up from the prior -0.2%. The Core PCE, which is everything to the exclusion of food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month in December last year, above the 0.2% rise seen in the previous month. Prices are expected to increase for the month of January by 0.2%.
In December last year, sales of new single-family homes in the United States jumped 2.3%
month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 616K, the highest level in four months, giving the US housing market a small but noticeable boost from its recent downturn. Expectations are for numbers to remain stable for January at 616K in the report released at 3:00 PM GMT.
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.