On Monday 27th: The EU Economic Sentiment and US Durable Goods Orders are due.
On Tuesday 28th: Australian Retail Sales, French CPI and GDP, Canadian GDP, and US Consumer Confidence reports are all published.
On Wednesday 1st: The Australian GDP, the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI, the Caixin General Manufacturing PMI, German CPI, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI are all due.
On Thursday 2nd: Japanese Consumer Confidence, EU and Italian CPI data are due to be released.
On Friday 3rd: The EU Services PMI, S&P Global UK Services PMI, and the ISM Services PMIs are released.
Weekly outlook
The week ahead has plenty of interest for investors, as a wide variety of GDP and Inflation figures are released among much more. Fourth quarter earnings are still coming in, and a couple to note this week are US retailers Costco and Target.
After Walmart posted a strong quarter last week, with revenue up 7.3% to $164 billion, will the other two big box stores follow suit with their sales figures? Although both companies are known for selling a wide range of cost effective items, Costco depends on a lower operating margin and bigger volumes and runs a membership base, while Target typically has a better operating profit due to a greater mix of discretionary products but has less customer loyalty. As a result, it's not surprising that Target has been hurt more by supply chain interruptions and inflation than Costco. A couple to watch for sure.
A large number of Services and Manufacturing PMI’s are also due across the globe this week. A resulting number of 50 or higher implies that the sector as a whole is improving, while a rating of 50 or below suggests that the sector is in decline. These reports provide insight into the state of the economy as a whole, given the substantial percentage that is generally devoted to the manufacturing and services sectors.
Monday 27th of February
The Euro Area's Economic Sentiment index released at 10:00 AM GMT is forecast to show a welcome jump to 102.5 in February after last month's increase by 2.8 points from the previous month to reach 99.9, the highest level since June.
US Durable goods orders are due to be reported at 1:30 PM GMT today. Figures increased by 5.6 percent month over month in December last year, according to the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured products, including transportation items. Expectations for January are for a drop of -2.1%.
Major Earnings Report due:
- CLP Holdings
Tuesday 28th of February
Australian Retail Sales are due to be published at 12:30 AM GMT. While monthly retail sales dropped 3.9% in December last year after eleven consecutive monthly increases, it is expected a slight rebound will occur with a 1.9% increase in sales.
Annualized French CPI data for February will be reported at 7:45 AM GMT, and is forecast for inflation to show a drop to 5.7% after a slight increase the previous month from 5.9% to 6%. At the same time, French GDP figures are expected to be released with a 0.5% growth rate for the fourth quarter year on year, after the previous quarter’s 1% growth.
Canada’s GDP data is expected to show the country’s economy has grown 0.4% for the fourth quarter compared to the third at 0.7%. While annualized figures are forecast to show growth of 0.9% in the fourth quarter compared to 2.9% the previous year.
The US CB Consumer Confidence Index for February, which measures the level of consumer confidence in the economy as tracked by the Conference Board (CB), is due out at 3:00 PM GMT. Expectations are for a jump to 109.5 from 107.1, putting it potentially at the highest level since February 2022.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Target
- Bayer
Wednesday 1st of March
The Australian economy is expected to show further growth for the fourth quarter when its report is released at 12:30 AM GMT. Up by potentially 0.6% on the previous quarter, this would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. While annualized’ GDP is expected to be up 2.5% on last year’s fourth quarter, down from the 5.9% growth.
The NBS Manufacturing PMI is due at 1:30 AM GMT from China today and is forecast for further gains to 50.8 after surprisingly rising to 50.1 in January this year, up from 47.0 the previous month. Growth in the sector is largely being attributed to China leaving behind its strict Covid policies.
China’s Caixin General Manufacturing PMI due out at 1:45 AM GMT will reportedly show a jump to 50.3 for February after it increased marginally from December's 3-month low of 49.0 to 49.2 last month.
German CPI released at 1:00 PM GMT is looking like inflation is dropping further to 8.4% after it was confirmed at 8.7% in January, up from a downwardly revised 8.1% in December. A spike in energy costs resulted after the government's one-time subsidy for energy bills expired at the end of last year, pushing the rate higher than first thought.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI plummeted to 47.4 in January, the lowest level since May 2020. The February report, due at 3:00 PM GMT, is forecast for a slight recovery to 47.9.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Salesforce
- Royal Bank of Canada
- NIO
Thursday 2nd of March
Japan releases its Consumer Confidence survey results at 5:00 AM GMT today. The index improved to 31.0 in January, up from 30.3 in December, and is forecast to further climb to 32 for February, which is some of the best results since August last year.
EU Inflation as measured by CPI data released at 10:00 AM GMT, is expected to show a further decline to 8.2% for February year on year, after January’s revised 8.6% figure. At the same time, the Unemployment rate will also be published, where it is expected to remain at the current rate of 6.6%.
Italy’s CPI will also be published at 10:00 AM GMT. Inflation in the country reached a 37 year high of 11.8% in October 2022, but due in most part to energy prices being regulated, this is now declining. Forecasts are for a drop to 9.3% for February from the previous month’s 10%.
Major Earnings Reports due:
- Broadcom
- Costco
Friday 3rd of March
The Final S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, published at 9:00 AM GMT, will have increased to 53.0 in February, up from 50.8 in the previous month. A vast improvement and some of the strongest gains since June 2022.
Reportedly rising from January's 48.7 to 53.3 in February, the Final S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI will be sitting at its highest it's been in eight months when the report is released at 9:30 AM GMT.
The United States ISM Services PMI is due to be released at 3:00 PM GMT. After the surprising increase to 55.2 in January, a drop is expected to 54.2 for the month of February.
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