The Final Sprint: Will the DAX Break the 24,500 Mark Before Christmas Eve?
It is a head-to-head race against time: Can the German leading index actually overcome the prestigious 24,500-point mark before Christmas Eve? Yesterday's trading on Monday was already quite sluggish and "pre-holiday slow." Untypically, the daily high was marked shortly after the opening before the index entered a sideways movement, closing almost unchanged at 24,283.97 points.
On the final stretch before the holidays, the trading desks of institutional heavyweights are largely deserted due to Christmas vacations. However, this increases the vulnerability to erratic movements: with thin trading volume, even smaller orders can noticeably move the market—especially if news takes the remaining participants by surprise.
US Data Rain This Afternoon: A Christmas Surprise in the Making?
While Europe is already in a "cookies and tinsel" mood, it is still business as usual in the USA this Tuesday afternoon. Due to shifts caused by the previous US shutdown, the BEA will release a wealth of critical data today at 2:30 PM CET:
-US GDP (Q3): The first official estimate is eagerly awaited (consensus: approx. 3.2%).
-Durable Goods: New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods provide insight into investment appetite.
-PCE Price Index: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could either fuel or dampen interest rate fantasies for 2026.
Given the current low trading volume, these figures could act as a catalyst, either hoisting the DAX over 24,500 points or triggering profit-taking.
Individual Stocks: Rheinmetall Under Selling Pressure, Infineon Riding the Tech Wave
Among individual stocks, Rheinmetall remains in the headlines despite new major orders. Investors seem to be following the "sell the news" mantra; the stock recently came under slight pressure despite massive annual gains of over 150%. In contrast, Infineon is benefiting enormously from the tailwind of the US tech exchange, Nasdaq. The stock is now targeting technical resistance at €37.75. If the tech sector remains stable, a breakout above this mark before the end of the year is a realistic scenario.
Warning Signal Gold: Record Hunt Despite Strong Equity Markets
A phenomenon is currently causing furrowed brows among market observers: while the DAX consolidates at high levels, the price of gold is chasing one all-time high after another. On Monday, the troy ounce climbed above the $4,400 mark for the first time.
This "parallel rally" is suspicious: the fact that gold is in such high demand despite high stock valuations and steady demand for risk assets points to a significant need for hedging among professionals. Apparently, big players don't quite trust the peace in the stock market and are buying "insurance" in the precious metals sector.
Conclusion: A Successful Year Draws to a Close
One shouldn't expect a "miracle" from the DAX just before the holidays. With an annual gain of currently around 21 percent, investors are already looking back on an extremely successful 2025. Whether the 24,500 mark falls today depends entirely on the impulse from US data.
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