Breakthrough Before the "Triple Witching": DAX Reclaims 24,000 Mark
The DAX has impressively demonstrated the potential it still holds. Driven by a noticeable easing on the inflation front—with stagnating rates in the European Union and a surprisingly sharp decline in inflation in the USA (down to 2.7% compared to the expected 3.1%)—the German leading index unleashed massive buying pressure yesterday. By the end of the trading day, the index posted a gain of 1.00%, closing at 24,199.50 points. The brief, concerning excursion below the psychologically important 24,000 mark appears to be history for now.
Triple Witching Hour: When the "Witches Dance" on the Floor
The timing of this upward momentum could hardly be better: Today, Friday, marks the "Triple Witching Hour" (Großer Hexensabbat)—the last major expiration day of 2025. On the derivatives exchanges, options and futures on indices (DAX, EuroStoxx 50) as well as on individual stocks expire simultaneously.
In the world of institutional investors, this often translates into increased volatility and targeted price maneuvers. Large market participants frequently attempt to steer prices in a direction favorable to them on expiration day to settle their derivative positions profitably. Following yesterday's breakthrough above 24,000 points, the bulls are likely to do everything in their power to defend or even extend this level until the official settlement (DAX contracts typically expire at 1:00 PM CET).
Window Dressing: Are Fund Managers Sprucing Up Their Portfolios?
In addition to the Triple Witching, the remaining trading days of the year could see further tailwinds from so-called "Window Dressing." Fund managers tend to "beautify" their portfolios shortly before the year-end. This involves shedding weak performers and increasing holdings in the year's winners to present a stellar selection in their annual reports.
Stocks that have performed exceptionally well in 2025—such as Siemens Energy (which recently led gains with a 3.6% advance), Rheinmetall, or the resurgent major banks like Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank—could receive a final upward push next week due to this effect.
Technical Outlook: The Bulls Have Taken the Helm
From a technical perspective, the DAX has successfully escaped the "quagmire" below 24,000 points. The stabilization at the technically significant 50-day moving average (EMA 50) served as a springboard. If the "witches" dance in favor of the bulls today, a conciliatory weekly close for the DAX is to be expected.
The next targets on the way up are clearly defined: First, the index needs to overcome yesterday's intraday high of around 24,250 points. If successful, the intermediate high from December 15 at 24,360 points will come into focus. Only a sustained breakout above the 24,500-point zone would finally clear the path for a genuine year-end rally toward new all-time highs.
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