On Monday 19th: German IFO Business Climate Index is due.
On Tuesday 20th: US Building Permits, Canadian Core Retail Sales, and the BoJ interest rate decision are released.
On Wednesday 21st: Canadian CPI, US Consumer Confidence, US Existing Home Sales, and Weekly Crude Oil Stocks are published.
On Thursday 22nd: US GDP, and Japanese Core CPI are due.
On Friday 23rd: Core Durable Goods for the US, the US Core PCE, Canadian GDP and US New Home Sales are released.
Weekly outlook
A focus on the state of housing in the US this week, as the impacts of tighter monetary policy are showing to be felt in the sector. Sales and permits across the board are slowing, pointing to recession, and this will be having a notable impact on the country’s GDP, which is also published this week.
Also in the spotlight is the economic situation in Japan. As a result of global recession fears, China’s slowing economy, a weak yen, and rising import prices, Japan’s GDP unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter. The BoJ will decide on the direction of interest rates this week on the basis of this and the CPI results also due this week.
Monday 19th of December
9:00 AM GMT- IFO Business Climate Index for December- Germany: The index assesses German business sentiment for the current and future periods, and is a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers. Last month the index hit a higher than expected level of 86.3, and forecasts are for a slight improvement still up to 87.2.
Tuesday 20th of December
1:30 PM GMT- Building Permits for November- US: Notable decreases were observed in the number of permits for new homes in October; a worrying sign as it is a key indicator for future housing demand and economic growth. Expectations for November are for a further drop from 1.512M to 1.470M.
1:30 PM GMT- Core Retail Sales for October- Canada: September core retail sales were better than expected but still fell 0.7%, with food and beverage sales leading the fall. In the same month store-bought food costs jumped 11.4% year-over-year, according to the Consumer Price Index. October sales are expected to have increased slightly, with the run-up to Christmas contributing.
2:46 PM GMT- BoJ Interest Rate Decision- Japan: Remaining the global outlier for maintaining negative rates, the Bank of Japan is set to keep the overnight rate at -0.10% again as it has been since 2016.
Wednesday 21st of December
1:30 PM GMT- Core monthly CPI for November- Canada: Last month the Core CPI advanced at the same pace as the prior month at 0.4%. Expectations are for a slight reduction in November as monetary policy continues to tighten and softens demand.
3:00 PM GMT- CB Consumer Confidence for December- US: CB Consumer Confidence gauges consumer sentiment in regards to the economy. Optimism usually indicates a boost to spending and economic development. A slight drop from 100.2 to 100 is expected this month.
3:00 PM GMT- Monthly Existing Home Sales for November- US: Existing Home Sales tracks the monthly change in annualized sales of existing residential structures. Numbers have been consistently falling over the past year. Last December, 6.69M homes were said to have been sold in the prior month, as opposed to expectations for 4.20M currently.
3:30 PM GMT- Weekly Crude Oil Inventories- US: US firm’s weekly commercial crude oil inventories are tracked by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and these inventory levels affect oil prices and inflation. According to the EIA data, US crude oil stocks are 6% lower than the 5-year average for this time of year, last week standing at 424.1 million barrels.
Thursday 22nd of December
3:30 PM GMT- Q3 GDP quarter on quarter- US: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its second estimated forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP), saw growth in the third quarter of 2022 to 2.9% from a decline of 0.6% in the previous quarter. The growth in the third quarter was driven mostly by rising exports and consumer spending, despite a decline in home investment.
11:30 PM GMT- National Core CPI for November year-on-year- Japan: Last month, Japan’s CPI hit 40 year highs at 3.6%. Despite this, the Bank of Japan remained steadfast in its commitment to maintaining its negative overnight rate. This month’s estimate is for a slight reduction to 3.5%.
Friday 23rd of December
1:30 PM GMT- Monthly Core Durable Goods Orders for November- US: Following a downward corrected 0.3% rise in September, durable goods orders, which track the price of orders manufacturers get for products designed to last at least three years, increased by 1% month over month in October, a four-month-high. Expectations are for further growth coming into the Christmas period.
1:30 PM GMT- Monthly Core PCE Price Index for November- US: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index tracks price changes in consumer goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE, unlike CPI, is chain-weighted and adapts to consumer behavior. Expectations are for a slight bump from 0.2% to 0.3%.
1:30 PM GMT- Monthly GDP for October- Canada: Preliminary estimates for October indicate that transportation and warehousing, construction, and wholesale commerce outpaced manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, keeping the Canadian economy stagnant at 0.1%.
3:00 PM GMT- New Home Sales for November- US: In keeping with overall housing trends in the US currently, the number of new single family homes being sold is also in decline. 744K new homes were sold this time last year, and just 608K are expected for last month.
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