Eyes Down for the first read on US First Quarter GDP
The US government will publish its first reading on US first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday at 1330h London time (1230GMT). Forecasters polled by Reuters are expecting a growth rate of 1.2 percent on an annualized basis compared to a 2.1 percent expansion in the final quarter of 2016. But, and traders may be interested to note this, the most recent data out of the US economy has led at least some well-respected analysts to predict substantially lower Q1 US GDP growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Now forecast model showed on Thursday that first quarter US GDP growth at only 0.2 percent on an annualized basis following durable goods orders data for March which came in at up 0.7 percent, substantially below analysts' expectations of a 1.2 percent rise, and with advance data for the goods trade balance in March showing a goods trade deficit $64.81 billion, a worse figure than February's deficit of $63.90 billion. The Atlanta Fed is not alone. Having also taken into consideration the durable goods and advance goods orders data, on Thursday US firm JP Morgan pared its own estimate on US Q1 GDP growth to 0.3 percent on an annualized basis down from a prior expectation of a 0.4 percent rise. Friday's data could prove interesting.
Written by Neal Kimberley, External Currency Analyst.
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