What will happen?
Understand this important evening and its impact on the markets
What is the Italian Referendum?
Italy approaches a risky constitutional referendum, with polls suggesting the “NO” having an advance of at least 2 points. Follow the latest news with our articles.
New Austrian elections
Austria has a new presidential election. Alexander Van der Bellen and Norbert Hofer are suggested as really close. Find out the influence on the markets.
Follow the event live!
Follow the results of the votes with a live session the 4th December with our experts. You will follow what are the impacts of the results on the markets.
What is the Italian Referendum?
Two historic votes have already rocked the markets this year, with the UK referendum at the end of June and the US election this month. On the 4th of December, another referendum could send the markets into a frenzy: this time the “threat” is from Italy, where there will be a very risky vote on constitutional reform, which could impact on various sectors including stock markets, indexes, currencies and bonds.
The package is the most extensive constitutional reform proposal since the end of the Monarchy 70 years ago. It involves reducing the number of Senators from 315 to 100 and changing the balance between the chambers of Parliament: reducing the power of the Senate and increasing that of the Government.
The fears of the market are not really related to content of the reform, but that a “NO” vote could bring Italy to an early election as Renzi has stated he will resign if the proposal is rejected.
The Prime Minister only has the left party and some of the centre on his side. Meanwhile the “Five Stars” led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, Forza Italia (Berlusconi’s party), the right party, Lega Nord, plus part of the left are campaigning for the proposal to be rejected.
The majority of the polls are currently favouring the “No” side – a serious challenge for Italy, for the EU and perhaps also for the financial markets.
Austrian Presidential Election
On the same day, the people of Austria will choose their next President, creating great uncertainty within the European Union. After Britain’s surprise vote for Brexit and the unexpected US Presidential election result, all eyes will be on Austria – will it follow the 2016 wave of populism by electing the anti-EU Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer?
The traditional parties’ failure to satisfy people’s expectations for many years has contributed significantly to the far-right party’s support. Moreover, fears regarding unemployment and immigration may gift the FPO the head of state on this crucial day.
Such a result would be very dangerous for the European Union, as a win for the FPO may lead the country to renegotiate its relationship with the Commission in Brussels. This situation would create a lot of uncertainty about the EU’s health, which may significantly harm European assets such as EuroStoxx 50, the EUR currency and other indexes and bonds (DAX30, AEX, CAC, IBEX, EUBund etc.).
The last five days to the referendum
29 Novembre, Carlo de Casa
Italians are living their last week of electoral campaign quite anxiously, with no polls supporting the parties, generally feeling that the distance between Yes and No would be very small. There is, again, a widespread participation of several foreign newspapers which try to orient voters in either one direction or the other. The Italian index FTSE MIB (ITA40), which is going to expire in December, has been waiting quietly, after the uncertainty at the current week’s beginning, and tried to recover during Tuesday’s session, approaching level 16,500 again. The spread between Italian and German ten-year bund has got back under 180, due to reassurances coming from the ECB. The EURO still remains weak, traded at 1.06 against US Dollar and 0.85 against the British Pound.
Austrian presidential election: quick update
24 November, Pierre Veyret
The « Freedom Party » candidate Norbert Hofer remains the leader of the current presidential race since the last elections that have taken place last May and which have been won by the M. Van Der Bellen with a very slight advance (50.3%). The new information, according to the last polls, is that Norbert Hofer’s advance is currently narrowing. We can now see the Freedom Party’s candidate still ahead of his opponent with odds of becoming the next president of 4/3 (0.44) according to bookmaker Paddy Power. M. Van Der Bellen is right behind him in the estimation with odds of 13/8 (1.62), 10 days ahead of the D-day.
New debats and end of surveys
22 November, Carlo De Casa
The pre-vote debate continues to keep Italy ablaze. There won’t be any further polls issued during the last two weeks before the referendum in December 4th, due to national regulators enforcing the “pre-electoral silence”. The latest polls conducted mid-November saw “No” between 52% and 55%, with an arguably wide margin against the “Yes”, even though the number of irresolute voters still remains high – they could be the ‘Yes’ voters last hope. On the financial side, Renzi’s decision to resign should the ‘No’ vote win, has caused uncertainty for the Italian index. At the same time, the spread between Italian and German bunds are rising significantly again. The electoral challenges race on, with all markets gripped by a compelling duel that is becoming fiercely political.
Italian GDP, positive results
17th November, Carlo De Casa
On Thursday morning, good figures were reported from Italy, with the national GDP growth by 0.3% in Q3, beating analyst forecasts of 0.2%. On an annual basis, the growth rose to 0.9%, more than the 0.8% previously forecasted. Meanwhile, the polls are continuing to report a majority for the NO.
Over 20 polls in the last 3 weeks that have suggested an advantage for the “NO” between 1.5% and 10%. The last one, released on the 9th of November is reporting the NO at 52%, while the YES is slightly recovering to 48%.
The so-called “Trump effect” is probably still not included in those polls (if there will be any effect), even if in Italy, according to polls, the majority of people stated that they would not have supported the Tycoon.
Renzi has now less than three weeks trying to recover this gap. We will see if these good macro figures could help his difficult trip.
Zak Mir has been involved with most areas of the City of London finance space for the best part of[…]
Zak Mir has been involved with most areas of the City of London finance space for the best part of 30 years, as a stockbroker and derivatives dealer in the 1990s and then a financial analyst and commentator since 2000 – appearing on Bloomberg, CNBC and the BBC. He witnessed and took part in the original Fintech and Dotcom explosion at the turn of the millennium, and is hence fully equipped to advise those in these areas now, where they are going right and wrong.
He currently is involved with expanding internet TV and production group TipTV – being an anchor on its ground breaking Finance Show, as well as being the Co-Host on the CityAM Podcast, and a columnist for Yahoo! Finance. His technical analysis book 101 Charts For Trading Success was number 1 on the Amazon UK business bestsellers, with Zak being one of the pioneers in this field in the UK.
Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst with 32 years experience of financial analysis working for some of the world’s biggest[…]
Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst with 32 years experience of financial analysis working for some of the world’s biggest investment banks.
Her key expertise is in foreign exchange, interest rate products, bullion, indices and commodities markets. Nicole is a regular TV commentator on financial markets and has authored books on technical analysis for financial professionals. She has a BSc from the London School of Economics.
Dr Andrew Lumsden Groom
Chief Academic Officer – The House of Trading With a long, diverse and distinguished career in public affairs, working in[…]
Chief Academic Officer – The House of Trading
With a long, diverse and distinguished career in public affairs, working in both the public and private sectors within the UK and internationally, Andrew now lectures on Politics, Economics and Rhetoric at several leading universities. Having read Politics and Economics, Andrew originally trained as a Crisis Specialist, still advising HM Government in this capacity and advised Greek officials during the Euro crisis.
As Chief Academic Officer for The House of Trading, Andrew is responsible for overseeing our course content and structure, ensuring The House of Trading provides the highest academic and practical value to its members. On a daily basis Andrew leads our team of analysts and economists, who provide The House of Trading with the same proprietary data found in only the largest of financial institutions.
Join us for an evening of results and analysis. Our experts will comment on the results and offer their expertise on how it could influence the opening of the Forex and indices markets across Europe and the rest of the word.
8pm – Introduction, Austrian results
Summary of all the major events of the past weeks in the financial markets and analysis of the results of the Austrian Presidential election.
10pm – Results of the referendum
What do the results mean for the opening of the markets? The expert will share opinions on the possible impact of the results.
10pm – Forex market opening
Again, the expert will offer informed commentary on the possible impact of the results on markets.