After a week of stagnant trading, investors are hoping for a new catalyst to move the DAX. The index meandered sideways with no clear direction, leaving many market participants disappointed. However, the upcoming week could bring about a change, with the eagerly awaited interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at the forefront.
A Fed Decision: Hope or Disappointment?
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in a 96% probability of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut. Expectations are therefore high. This raises the question of whether this decision is already fully priced in. There is a risk that the Fed will not meet the lofty expectations, leading to a negative market reaction—a phenomenon known to financial experts as "buy the rumors, sell the facts." Investors who act contracyclically here could gain an advantage.
Is the DAX Headed for Another Decline?
From a technical standpoint, the DAX remains under pressure. The German blue-chip index continues to trade within a range of 23,900 and 23,500 points. On the daily chart, the DAX is trading below its 20- and 100-day moving averages, a clear sign of current weakness. Recent price movements suggest a corrective phase. The sell-off from September 2, 2025, has not been recovered, which dampens the outlook for a quick breakout to the upside.
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