Glimmer of Hope in the Gulf: U.S. Peace Plan Lifts DAX Toward the 23,000 Mark
A 15-point U.S. plan for Iran is letting financial markets breathe a sigh of relief. Oil prices are reacting promptly with a slight easing, and the DAX is sailing straight up in these temporarily calmer waters. The fact that the global economic outlook has clouded over massively as a result of the war in Iran did not come as a surprise to traders, however. This gloomy fundamental scenario was already largely priced in following the disastrous plunge of the ZEW Index. Now, market participants must play the waiting game: waiting to see how Tehran reacts to the diplomatic offensive and, above all, how quickly the vital Strait of Hormuz reopens before the West's strategic oil reserves are definitively depleted.
Airbus Takes Flight: Leading Index Closes Just Below the Magic Hurdle
The German leading index made up significant ground yesterday, Wednesday. With a strong gain of 1.41% and a closing price of 22,957.08 points, the barometer is now right on the verge of reclaiming the psychologically enormous hurdle of 23,000 points. If geopolitical impulses continue to provide tailwinds, the DAX is well capable of finally pulling off a positive weekly close after weeks of sell-offs. Yesterday's clear high-flyer was Airbus, which took the top spot in the DAX with a gain of 2.6%, closely followed by Scout24 (+2.1%). Bringing up the rear, however, were shares of Deutsche Börse with a discount of 1.5%.
Technical Warning: Just a Bear Market Rally on Shaky Legs?
But caution is still advised: From a technical perspective, we must absolutely assume that the DAX remains strrenuck in an overarching downtrend. The cut upward movements are classically evaluated as a technical correction within a bear market. Even three friendly trading days in a row have not been enough to break the prominent high of last Friday's blood-red sell-off day. Accordingly, the recent upward trend is standing on extremely shaky legs. Anyone hoping for a sustained bottoming out must prepare for the index to take another painful turn to the south beforehand. The market currently simply lacks the necessary buying momentum for a steep V-shaped trend reversal.
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