On Monday 25th: Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index is due for release.
On Tuesday 26th: The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is due, along with the US New Home Sales.
On Wednesday 27th: Australia’s CPI, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index and US Durable Goods Orders are all due.
On Thursday 28th: German Inflation, US GDP and US Pending Home Sales are set to be released.
On Friday 29th: The Caixin China General Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due, along with UK GDP, Inflation figures for France, the Eurozone and Italy, US Core PCE Prices and US Consumer Spending and Income figures.
Weekly outlook
This week, investors will likely focus on the latest Inflation and GDP figures from some of the world's largest economies. As numerous central banks report having attained their interest rate peak in recent months, persistent inflation and robust economic growth are placing renewed pressure on past strategies.
The Fed, on Wednesday chose to hold its tightening policy for now despite inflation having grown again and recent robust GDP readings and forecasts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested in a press conference following the decision that the board was prepared to raise rates further if necessary and this week's data may partly serve to confirm that idea for early November. Only time will tell!
Monday 25th of September
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index is published today at 8:00 AM GMT. With a reading of 85.7 in August, the index hit a new low not seen since October 2022 and fell short of market forecasts. A dramatic drop in corporate optimism reflected a continued struggle with high inflation, rising interest rates, and falling demand as a result of the global economic slump. The new data is expected to show a further dip to around 84.3 for September.
Tuesday 26th of September
From the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 106.1 in August from a revised 114.0 in July. The dismal headline figure reflected declines in both the current conditions and expectations indices. Expectations are for a further dip to around 105.9 when the new report is released at 2:00 PM GMT.
In July, sales of new single-family homes in the US increased by 4.4% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 714 thousand, the highest level since February 2022 and exceeding market expectations of 705 thousand. A similar figure of 700 thousand is expected for August when the new report is released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Wednesday 27th of September
Annual inflation measured by Australia's Consumer Price Index slowed to 4.9% in July from 5.4% in June. Although this was significantly over the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%, it was the lowest inflation rate since February 2022 owing mostly to a decrease in housing and food price increases. The new data due at 1:30 AM GMT is forecast to show a slight rise to 5.1% on the back of higher fuel prices among others.
The German GfK Consumer Confidence Index is due today at 6:00 AM GMT. After being revised down to -24.6 in August, the Index fell to -25.5 for September, far below the -24.3 market consensus. As rising inflation persisted last month, consumer morale dropped to its lowest level since May. However, a slight improvement to 24.8 is forecast for October.
New Durable Goods Orders in July in the US fell by 5.2%, after a downwardly revised 4.4% increase in June. It was the steepest dip in orders since mid 2020, resulting from a large drop in demand for transportation equipment. When the latest figures are released at 12:30 PM GMT, analysts forecast a further 1.6% drop for August.
Thursday 28th of September
Germany is due to publish its Inflation Rate today from 12:00 PM GMT. The Annual consumer price inflation was confirmed at 6.1% in August, down slightly from 6.2% in July and matching May's 14-month low. The core rate, which does not include goods such as food and energy, was steady at 5.5%. The preliminary report is expected to show that a slight drop was registered for September, to around 5.9% annually. However a monthly increase to 0.6% up from 0.3% is also forecast.
Final US GDP figures are ready for release today at 12:30 PM GMT. The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of this year, compared to a preliminary number of 2.4% and a 2.0% increase in the first quarter. Private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment were revised down, whereas state and local government expenditure was revised higher. The final Q2 report is expected to show growth of around 2.2%.
Again from the US, Pending Home Sales are due at 2:00 PM GMT. Despite market predictions for a 0.6% decline, contracts to buy previously owned houses climbed by 0.9% month over month in July, marking the second consecutive month of growth. August figures are expected to show a further 0.2% climb month over month which may further prove that the housing market is on its way to recovery.
Friday 29th of September
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due at 1:45 PM GMT today. In August, the index increased to 51.0 from 49.2 in July, above market expectations of 49.3. This was the fastest rate of manufacturing activity growth since February, however a slight drop is expected for September to around 49.0. The Services sector is also due to report, and is expecting growth from 51.8 in August to around 52.6 in September.
The UK will confirm its GDP for Q2 at 6:00 AM GMT this morning. Preliminary estimates revealed that the British economy grew by 0.4% year over year in Q2, after a gain of 0.2% in Q1 and above predictions of 0.2% growth. Despite forecasts of a flat quarter over quarter reading, expectations are for 0.2% growth in Q2 from Q1.
Early inflation figures are due across the day today for France, the Eurozone and Italy among others. While inflation has fallen markedly for many European nations, progress is beginning to slow. A drop from 4.9% to 4.8% is seen for France, while the Eurozone is expecting a rise from 5.2% to 5.5%, and Italy may see a slight drop to 5.3% from 5.4%.
The US core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July, matching market expectations. As expected, the annual rate, which is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, increased to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. When the news figures are released at 12:30 PM GMT, another 0.2% rise is expected for August.
Released concurrently for the US, the month over month Personal Income and Personal Spending reports are due. After a 0.3% increase in June, personal income increased by 0.2% in July, just below market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Meanwhile Personal Spending in current dollars increased by 0.8% in July, the most since January and exceeding market expectations. Further gains are expected for both Spending and Income for August of around 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
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