Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- The US economy grew faster than previously thought in the second quarter, expanding by 3.3% (vs 3% expected).
- President Trump is using national security as a reason to impose new tariffs on a wider range of goods, including semiconductors, heavy trucks, and aircraft.
- A Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook, is suing President Trump to prevent him from firing her, setting up a major legal challenge over the president's power.
- Factory activity in the central U.S. is slowly recovering, with stronger demand and rising prices. This comes as the Federal Reserve considers whether to cut interest rates.
- The European Union has agreed to scrap duties on U.S. industrial goods to ease tensions over new tariffs on European cars. The U.S. will now apply a 15% tariff on European autos, down from the planned 27.5%.
- Economic confidence in the Eurozone declined for the second straight month in August. Concerns are widespread across all sectors, complicated by the new trade deal with the U.S. and political instability in France.
- The Philippine central bank cut interest rates again to support the economy, as it believes inflation is under control. The overnight reverse repurchase rate is now at 5.00% and the lending rate at 5.75%.
- The Bank of Korea kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50% but raised its economic growth forecast.
- Australia's inflation reached a one-year high of 2.8% in July, driven mainly by the rising cost of housing, food, and alcohol.
- A lack of new immigrants is keeping U.S. unemployment low for now, but it could undermine long-term economic growth and lead to smaller increases in jobs each month.
- France is facing a new political crisis. The Prime Minister is expected to lose a confidence vote next month due to public and political opposition to his government's unpopular budget and debt plans.
- Japan's factory output fell 1.6% in July as U.S. tariffs began to impact the economy. While unemployment is low, consumer spending is weak, which complicates the central bank’s decision on whether to raise interest rates, even though inflation is hovering around 2.5% in Tokyo in August.
- The ECB's policymakers were split on their inflation outlook during their July meeting, a debate that is expected to intensify in the coming months.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The USD/CAD is up more than 1.10%.
- The AUD/USD is up more than 1.80%.
- The AUD/EUR is up more than 1.30%.
- The TRY/JPY is down more than 1.30%.
- The NZD/USD is up more than 1.30%.
- The GBP/USD is up more than 1.15% in August.
- The GBP/NZD is up more than 2.25% in August.
- The USD/JPY is down more than 1.05% in August.
Commodities
- Natural gas prices are up more than 8.70%.
- Corn prices are up more than 6.10%.
- Coffee prices are up more than 25% in August.
- Robusta coffee prices are up more than 43% in August.
Indices
- The S&P 500 and the Dow both reached new record closing highs on Thursday.
- Meanwhile, a significant shift is happening in the U.S. stock market: investors are moving money out of pricey tech stocks and into more affordable small-cap companies.
- The Russell 2000, an index of small companies, is on track for a strong 7.3% gain this month. This shows a major underperformance for the tech-heavy UsaTec index, which is trailing by 580 basis points.
- The French CAC 40 index is down more than 2.60%.
- The European STOXX 50 index is down more than 1.34%.
- The Brazilian Bovespa index is up more than 4.70%.
- The Japanese Nikkei 225 is up more than 4.60% in August.
- The Italian FTSE MIB is up almost 4% in August.
Shares
Tops
- Vamos Locados de Caminhoes: +19.13%
- Braskem: +19.09%
- Magazine Luiza: +18.07%
- Vibra Energia: +17.56%
- Companhia Siderurgica: +14.18%
- Applovin: +17.52%
- Wynn Resorts: +14.30%
- Deckers Outdoor: +14.09%
- APA: +13.68%
- Fair Isaac: +12.42%
- Carnival: +11.65%
- Datadog: +10.07%
Flops
- Keuring Dr Pepper: -16.28%
- Commenzbank: -12.19%
- Hormel Foods: -11.51%
- The Cooper Companies: -11.45%
- Vinci: -9.08%
- Societe Generale: -8.95%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 01 September
- 01:45 AM - Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 49.5
- Forecast: 49.5
Tuesday 02 September
- 09:00 AM - European Inflation Rate YoY Flash (August)
- Previous: 2%
- Forecast: 2.1%
- 02:00 PM - American ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 48.0
- Forecast: 48.6
Wednesday 03 September
- 01:30 AM - Australian GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
- Previous: 0.2%
- Forecast: 0.5%
- 02:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (July)
- Previous: 7.437M
- Forecast: 7.3M
Thursday 04 September
- 01:30 AM - Australian Balance of Trade (July)
- Previous: A$5.365B
- Forecast: A$5.25B
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Balance of Trade (July)
- Previous: C$-5.86B
- Forecast: C$-6.1B
- 02:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 50.1
- Forecast: 50.5
Friday 05 September
- 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.9%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Unemployment Rate (August)
- Previous: 6.9%
- 12:30 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (August)
- Previous: 73K
- Forecast: 78K
- 12:30 PM - American Unemployment Rate (August)
- Previous: 4.2%
- Forecast: 4.3%
- 02:00 PM - Canadian Ivey PMI s.a (August)
- Previous: 55.8
- Forecast: 52
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 03 September
- Hewlett Packard
- Salesforce
- Dollar Tree
Thursday 04 September
- Broadcom
- Photronics
Source: Trading Economics, The Wall Street Journal, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 29 August 2025
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