In a recent article on Risk Management, I wrote that traders should:
“Be more selective: only look for high or very high quality set-ups, and take only the trades that you have the highest conviction in, rather than chasing every spike or plunge.”
That's a great goal to aim for; however, in the real world, it’s easy to say but harder to achieve.
So I thought it might be useful to look at some actual examples of how we can find high probability trades in the current climate and beyond.
ARM Yourself
Last Friday (20-03-2026), US bank Citi wrote about Chip designer ARM Holdings, and its forthcoming inaugural Investor Day, which took place on Tuesday, 24-03-2026.
The bank's outlook was positive, and the suggestion was that ARM might move into chip production, and that, as a result, ARM’s business stood to benefit from the shift from training to inference within the world of AI.
Moving into chip production rather than just designing for other firms represented a significant strategy change for ARM Holdings, and offered a potentially lucrative source of new revenues for the business.
Here’s how ARM Holdings finished the week ending 20-03-2026
Source: Barchart.com
Here's how ARM traded in the US pre-market session, on March 25th, the day after the Investor event:
Note the gap higher and a +10.00% gain for the stock, even before the regular market had opened.
Source: Barchart.com
Here is how ARM Holdings finished the day up by +16.38%, closing at $157.07, but printing an intraday high of $166.69.
Close to close, between Friday the 20th and Wednesday the 25th of March, ARM stock put on $24.7.
That’s a +19.0% gain.
Though, of course, that doesn't include the high print, some $9.00 above Wednesday’s close.
Source: Barchart.com
Could you have got involved?
I am lucky, I got to read the Citi comments on ARM in their European morning note, something that’s not usually available to retail traders.
However, the event wasn’t a secret; in fact, it was well publicised.
This is an AI summary of other mentions of the planned Investor event that were in the public domain ahead of time.
Source: Gemini AI
Why am I saying all this?
Here's the thing: I shared the US banks' comments on ARM with my readers at 07.55 AM London time on Friday, 20th, well ahead of major moves in the stock.
So yes, given all the above, I think it's plausible that you could have found this opportunity for yourselves.
Finding the news, and or broker comment is one thing.
Understanding why it matters and the impact it could have on stock prices is another.
Although if we look at the mentions in the list above, it was really just a matter of joining the dots. Rather than needing expertise in the chip sector.
And that’s the point in a situation like this, there is little or no heavy lifting for the trader to do, instead they can concentrate on managing the risk because the market does it for us.
Of course, many of us will have pulled our wings in, thanks to the ongoing war.
But even a small leveraged position in a situation like this, i.e. a stock that moves+19.0% (and more) higher, could yield meaningful results.
Of course, we mustn't forget that leverage magnifies losses just as easily as it does profits.
Was this one off?
No, far from it, and to prove that, here is the breakdown of another opportunity from this week (23-03-2026)
On Wednesday 25=03-2026 German specialty Chemicals company Lanxess LXS GR was upgraded by JP Morgan, after the bank hosted a round table for managers from 13 leading European chemical companies.
JP Morgan talked about the re-emergence of pricing power for the group, saying that LXS GR was the most geared towards that, as it’s the only western based supplier in its field.
Once again, I was able to share this information with my readers ahead of the open in this list of broker recommendation changes, which I distributed at 7.27 am London time.
Broker rating changes on 25-03-2026
Source: Idea Factory/Darren Sinden
JP Morgan took the unusual step of moving from Underweight to Overweight in Lanxess.
A so-called "Double Upgrade” jumping over a neutral or market-perform rating, completely.
A clear indication that the bank was genuinely bullish.
This was the result.
Source: Barchart.com
Here's a closer look at how Lanxess traded on that news.
They opened up on Wednesday, +8.0% above the prior close, and moved up to a gain of 16.49% by Wednesday's close. That wasn't the end of the move either.
After a brief period of consolidation, the stock continued to move higher, and as of Thursday afternoon, it was up by +25.85 % from Tuesday night's close.
Source: Barchart.com
You're probably thinking that's all well and good, but would that information have been available to me?
Well, once again, the answer is yes, in fact, Market Screener.com published a news item on the upgrade at 02.10 EDT or New York Time.
Which, prior to UK clocks moving forward this weekend, was 06.10 am London time, see this Link.
Two stocks, two significant moves that were largely driven by well-publicised events and newsflow.
This, in turn, drove a re-rating of both stocks' share prices.
The hard part here is sorting the signal from the noise, which is coming from constant commentary about the war.
But by taking a step back from that noise, and looking for tangible opportunities, rather than things that are speculative and driven by short-term swings in sentiment (which are effectively a coin toss)
You can still find high probability trading opportunities.
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