Gold prices touched a new all-time high this morning, having risen by around 2% so far this week, supported by increased safe-haven demand and expectations of a more dovish Fed. Geopolitical tensions are intensifying in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, while markets are pricing further rate cuts well into 2026, implying that in a year’s time rates could be 1 percentage point, or even more, lower. This creates scope for additional dollar weakness and heightens inflation concerns, both of which underpin demand for the precious metal. Remarks from Fed official Stephen Miran reinforced this dovish outlook, suggesting the Federal Funds rate should settle below 3%, a scenario that could mean a further 1 to 1.5 percentage points of cuts by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, the key risk events today are Powell’s speech and the release of US PMI data. A sober tone from the Fed Chair and stronger PMI figures could create a temporary headwind for gold. Against this backdrop, I expect prices to consolidate above $3,750 in the short term, with scope for further upside and a new resistance level around $3,900.
Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades
Source: ActivTrader
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