The DAX 40 surprised investors and analysts alike in 2024 with an impressive rally that catapulted the index above the magic 20,000-point mark for the first time. This development was in stark contrast to the weakening German economy and once again underlined the decoupling of the stock market and the real economy.Technology stocks were the undisputed stars of the year. SAP, the flagship of the German tech scene, recorded a staggering 65% rise in its share price. The software giant benefited massively from the global AI boom and its strategic realignment in the cloud business. Even more spectacular was the resurrection of Siemens Energy, which exceeded all expectations with a gain of 328% and brought short sellers to their knees.
In the armaments sector, Rheinmetall shone with growth of 117%. Geopolitical tensions and the resulting increased defense spending in Europe fueled this trend. Day traders who bet on this sector early on were able to make huge profits. Financial stocks also experienced a renaissance. Commerzbank (+43.3%) benefited from the positive interest rate environment and surprised with robust business figures. The transformation of the banking sector finally seems to be bearing fruit.
Interestingly, the DAX was largely immune to fears of recession in Germany. The strong global orientation of many index heavyweights proved to be a protective shield against domestic economic concerns. In addition, the booming US economy provided a tailwind, as many DAX companies generate significant shares of sales overseas.
One intriguing aspect was the role of contrarian investors. The apparent discrepancy between gloomy economic forecasts and stock market euphoria attracted courageous investors who swam against the tide and bet on a recovery of the German economy.
Leading analysts forecast a positive trend in the DAX for 2025. Estimates range from 19,900 to 22,300 points, representing growth of up to 13%. The drivers are expected profit growth of 5-10% at DAX companies and rising dividends, especially in the financial and utilities sectors.
However, risks remain: a possible recession in Germany, geopolitical uncertainties and the 2025 federal election could cause volatility. From a technical analysis point of view, there are potential fluctuations between 17,025 and 22,500 points for 2025.
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