On Monday 12th: The US Federal Government's Monthly Budget Statement is published.
On Tuesday 13th: The Australian Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index and NAB Business Confidence Index are due, along with the UK’s Claimant Count Change, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and US Inflation figures.
On Wednesday 14th: UK GDP data, and US PPI are published, as well as the Japanese Trade Balance, while the Federal Reserve meets on monetary policy.
On Thursday 15th: Chinese Industrial Production is due, the ECB meets on monetary policy, US Retail Sales numbers and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are all published.
On Friday 16th: The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released.
Weekly outlook
It’ll be a big week in economic news, and particularly monetary policy announcements, as the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan all meet to discuss the direction of borrowing rates for the coming period.
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 4.75% on Wednesday after a four-month break, and the Reserve Bank of Australia also raised rates by a quarter point to an 11-year high on Tuesday warning of further increases.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to suspend its tightening cycle this week in order to assess the nation's response to anti-inflationary measures that have seen 500 basis points worth of interest rate increases since the cycle began.
Most analysts believe this forecasted break will last only a short time, many expect the next increase will be as early as next month. Stay tuned!
Monday 12th of June
The US Federal Government's Monthly Budget Statement, which is the difference between its receipts and outlays for the reported month, recorded a USD 176 billion surplus in April, down from USD 308 billion in the same month the previous year and underperforming market expectations.
In spite of a steep decline in income from decreased non-withheld individual tax collections, it pointed to the first budget surplus since April 2022. The most recent figures for May are to be released at 6:00 PM GMT.
Tuesday 13th of June
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index in Australia fell sharply by 7.9% last month, hitting a level of 79.0. After the unexpected rate increase by the RBA in May and now another for early June, all components of the index have been in decline. However, when the report is published for June, at 12:30 AM GMT, analysts expect a slight bump to 81.5 or a 3.2% rise.
Again in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index, due at 1:30 AM GMT, increased by 1 point in April to 0, reaching the most positive level since January. Finance, commercial real estate, retail, and building all had modest increases, but wholesale saw the most significant rise. An increase to 2 is expected for the coming month’s report.
The number of persons seeking unemployment benefits in the United Kingdom increased by 46.7K in April, after a corrected 26.5K rise the previous month. May’s Claimant Count change, released at 6:00 AM GMT, is forecast to show a 22.0K increase. While the Unemployment Rate for April is expected to remain at 3.9%.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany dropped to its lowest level in five months in May, reaching -10.7. A further dip to -12 is expected for the most recent results for June, due at 9:00 AM GMT, partly resulting from European Central Bank interest rate rises and continuing global economic uncertainty.
Inflation in the United States dipped to 4.9% annually in April, the lowest level since April 2021 and slightly lower than the 5% rate expected by the market. Core consumer price inflation also dropped slightly to 5.5% in the same month. The latest figures, due at 12:30 PM GMT, are expected to show only slight improvements to 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.
Wednesday 14th of June
UK GDP figures are due at 6:00 AM GMT today. After a flat result in February, the UK's economy contracted 0.3% month-over-month in March. Expectations for April are for 0.2% growth.
The U.S. final demand producer prices (PPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in April, compared to a downwardly revised 0.4% loss in March. The May report, due at 12:30 PM GMT, is forecast to show 0.2% growth again, while Core PPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to grow by 0.1%.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC will meet on monetary policy today, with the decision statement released at 6:00 PM GMT and the Press Conference to follow a half hour later. Analysts expect the Fed will leave interest rates alone this month, sitting at 5.25%, to allow time to assess the impact of previous rate rises and allow lags to unfold.
Japan publishes its Trade Balance Statement at 11:50 PM GMT this evening. The country’s trade deficit decreased to JPY 432.4 billion in April from JPY 854.9 billion in the same month of the previous year. If market forecasts are correct, the May figure will end up being the 22nd consecutive month of shortfalls, but at an estimated JPY 310.0 billion, still an improvement.
Thursday 15th of June
China's Industrial Production increased by 5.6% year-over-year in April, which was an acceleration from the 3.9% growth seen in March but still below market expectations. Since the zero-COVID policy was lifted, manufacturing and mining have both seen significant increases, contributing to the 12th consecutive month of industrial output growth. 5% growth is expected for May year over year when the report is released at 2:00 AM GMT.
The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet on monetary policy this week, with the decision statement due at 12:15 PM GMT and a press conference to follow at 12:45 PM GMT. Following seven straight rate rises, borrowing rates have now risen to their highest level since July 2008 as the ECB attempts to tackle excessive inflation amid lingering recession fears. The forecast is for another hike this month, up to 4.0% from 3.75%.
US Retail Sales figures are due at 12:30 PM GMT today. Following two straight months of falls, sales grew 0.4% month over month in April, falling well short of market expectations of a 0.8% growth. May data is forecast to show 0.5% growth.
From an almost three-year low of -31.3 in April, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US rose to -10.4 in May. Philadelphia's manufacturing sector has been declining for four months straight, but this decrease has slowed to its weakest rate in the last four weeks.
Friday 16th of June
The Bank of Japan is due to meet on monetary policy today at 3:00 AM GMT. By a unanimous vote in April, the BoJ kept its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0%. However, it changed its policy rate guidance by removing references to the need to guard against risks from the COVID pandemic and to keep interest rates at current or lower levels. No changes are expected to arise from this meeting.
Concerns over the direction of the economy led to a dip in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US in May, from an earlier estimate of 57.7 to 59.2, the lowest level since November last year. The most recent result is expected at 2:00 PM GMT today.
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