On Monday 29th: The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is due.
On Tuesday 30th: GDP figures for France, Spain, Italy and the Euro Area are released, the US JOLTs Job Openings are due, and the BoJ releases its Summary of Opinions.
On Wednesday 31st: Australian Inflation figures are published, along with the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI, the Japanese Consumer Confidence Index, French Inflation data, German Employment, GDP and Inflation figures. Meanwhile, the US ADP Employment Change is due, and the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Meeting concludes.
On Thursday 1st: The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due, the Euro Area puts out its Inflation and Unemployment figures, Italy releases its Inflation data, the BoE meets on Monetary Policy, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due.
On Friday 2nd: Swiss Consumer Confidence is due, along with the US Non Farm Payrolls and other Employment figures.
Weekly outlook
A huge five days of new economic data and earnings figures are due this week. All the big tech names, such as Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are due to release their Q4 report cards, as well as pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk.
Monetary Policy meetings from the Fed and Bank of England will also be high priority as always. After its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades, expectations that the Fed would soften monetary policy in 2024 sparked an enormous rally in stocks and bonds in the last few months of last year, propelling the S&P 500 to an annual gain of more than 24%.
Some investors are reevaluating their predictions on how fast the Fed will lower rates this year, however, due to the robust US economy and resistance from bank officials. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the BoE is expected to keep rates at their current levels despite its flailing economy. Watch this space!
Monday 29th of January
The overall business activity index for Texas manufacturing, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, improved to -9.3 in December 2023 from -19.9 the month before, indicating the lowest level of pessimism in the industry in a single year. The positive result may be short-lived as forecasts put the January figure at around -23 when the results are released at 3:30 PM GMT today.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Eiffage
● Ryanair
● Philips
Tuesday 30th of January
Flash Q4 GDP data is due for a number of major European economies today, including the French, Spanish, Italian and Euro Area figures. Year over year growth is expected to decline from 0.6% to 0.2% for Italy, a fall to -0.3% from 0.1% is forecast for Italy, while the Euro Area economy overall is forecast to improve to around 0.4% from a previous flat reading.
US JOLTs Job Openings are due for December 2023 at 3:00 PM GMT today. With a 62,000 job opening drop from the prior month, the total for November 2023 was 8.790 million, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than the 8.85 million predicted by market analysts. A further dip to around 8.69 million openings is forecast for what would be the fourth straight drop.
The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions from its most recent Monetary Policy Meeting today at 11:50 PM GMT. Expectedly, during its January meeting, the BoJ maintained the zero-interest rate on 10-year bonds and the key short-term interest rate at -0.1%. As a result of the recent drop in oil prices, the Bank cut its inflation predictions for fiscal year 2024 from 2.8% in October to 2.4% in its quarterly outlook.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Microsoft
● Alphabet
● AMD
● Pfizer
Wednesday 31st of January
Inflation in Australia dropped to 5.4% year on year in Q3 2023 from the 6.0% recorded in the previous quarter and the 5.3% the market had predicted. A decrease in goods and services inflation drove the annual headline rate to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2022, marking the third consecutive quarter of decreases. When the new data is released at 12:30 AM GMT, expectations are for a further drop to around 4.3%. The Monthly CPI indicator is expected to remain steady at 4.3%.
NBS Manufacturing PMI is due for January today. In December 2023, the PMI dropped to 49.0, which was lower than the previous month's reading of 49.4 and below market expectations of 49.5. The slow recovery caused by property fragility, deflationary threats, and increasing global headwinds has led to a third consecutive month of decrease in industrial activity, which is the steepest pace in six months. The new report is due at 1:30 AM GMT.
After rising to 36.1 in November 2023, the Japanese consumer confidence index reached 37.2 the following month in December. As a whole, and especially in regards to household income, sentiment increased, leading to the best reading since December 2021. The updated data for January is due today from 5:00 AM GMT.
French Inflation is due to be reported on again from 7:45 AM GMT today. Another welcome drop from 3.7% to around 2.9% is expected for the annualised headline rate for January.
A range of German economic data is due across the day today. German employment has been slowing recently, however the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 5.9%. A flash annual GDP report for Q4 will potentially show a decline from -0.4% to -0.8%, and a preliminary Inflation report is forecast to show a drop from 3.7% to around 2.3% for annualised headline inflation in January.
The US ADP Employment Change for private companies that hire personnel in the US will report at 1:15 PM GMT today. This report is a reasonably predictive precursor for the official Bureau of Labour Statistics Report on Friday. Jobs figures are expected to decline to around 130K in January from 164K the previous month.
The Federal Reserve meets on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement to be released at 7:00 PM GMT today and the Press Conference to follow a half hour later. For the third consecutive meeting, the FOMC held the fed funds rate at 5.25%–5.5% in December 2023, as anticipated; however, they also signaled around 75 basis points of reductions are due in 2024. Officials stated that recent data points to a slowdown in economic growth, a moderate but sustained increase in job additions, and a low unemployment rate. Although it has decreased over the past year, inflation is still high. Analysts expect the Central Bank will keep rates on hold where they are this month.
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Major Earnings Releases:
● Mastercard
● Novartis
● Alibaba
● Boeing
● GSK
● Hitachi
● Samsung Electronics
Thursday 1st of February
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI is due for January today. With a slight increase from 50.7 in November to 50.8 in December 2023, the PMI exceeded market expectations of 50.4 and recorded its best rating since August the same year. While new orders increased at their greatest rate since February, output climbed at its fastest rate in seven months. New export orders decreased at their slowest rate in six months. The new data will be out from 1:45 AM GMT today.
The Euro Area publishes its newest Inflation and Unemployment figures today at 10:00 AM GMT. In December 2023, the Euro Area's inflation rate was found to have increased to 2.9% from November's nearly two-year low of 2.4%. Additionally, it signalled the first increase in inflation since April, mostly due to base effects connected to energy. Forecasts are for a welcome reduction to around 2.2% for January. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate, which is currently at a historic low of 6.4%, is expected to rise back to around 6.6%.
Preliminary Inflation figures for Italy are also due at 10:00 AM GMT. Italy's annual inflation rate was verified to be 0.6% in December 2023, down from 0.7% in November and consistent with preliminary data that showed the effects of the ECB's extended restrictive monetary policy. A further drop to 0.4% is expected for January.
The Bank of England is due to meet on Monetary Policy this week, with the Decision Statement and Minutes due at 12:00 PM GMT. Despite signs of an economic downturn, the BoE voted 6-3 to keep its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% at its last meeting, a level not seen in 15 years, for the third meeting in a row. Analysts expect the Bank to continue to hold rates this week.
After falling short of market expectations in November last year at 46.7, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.4 in December. Nonetheless, manufacturing activity has been contracting for 14 months running, the longest streak of decline since 2000–2001. When the newest report is due at 3:00 PM GMT, expectations are for a similar result as last month around 47.4.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Apple
● Amazon
● Shell
● Sanofi
● Sony
● BNP Paribas
● Dassault systemes
● Merck&Co
● ING Groep
● Deutsche Bank
Friday 2nd of February
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Swiss consumer confidence indicator fell to -40, following a slightly revised -27 in the preceding three months. This was a considerable drop from the long-term average of -6, and was the worst rating since the final quarter of 2022, showing that consumers are worried about the stability of their own finances and the economy as a whole in the near future. When the new results are published at 8:00 AM GMT, an improvement to around -28 is forecast.
US Non Farm Payrolls are due today from 1:30 PM GMT. December 2023 saw 216K new jobs added to the economy, which was more than the 173K revised downwards in November and significantly higher than the 170K predicted by market analysts. 162K new positions are expected to be added for January, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics report. Meanwhile, In December 2023, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.7%, and expectations are for this to remain steady in January.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Exxon Mobil
● Chevron
● UniCredit
● Panasonic
● Danske Bank
● Electrolux
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