On Monday 9th: Chinese Inflation Rate YoY
On Tuesday 10th: Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change and UK Unemployment Rate
On Wednesday 11th: UK GDP MoM, American Core Inflation Rate YoY and American Inflation Rate YoY
On Thursday 12th: Australian NAB Business Confidence, ECB Interest Rate Decision, and American PPI MoM
On Friday 13th: American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
Monday 9th of September
China's annual inflation rate accelerated to 0.5% in July 2024, surpassing market expectations of 0.3%. This marks the highest inflation rate since February and the sixth consecutive month of consumer price increases. The Chinese government's stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption have contributed to the rising inflation. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in July, marking the first increase since April. This is also higher than the consensus forecast of 0.3%.
Market participants anticipate that China's annual inflation rate will remain unchanged at 0.5% in August, with the official data scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT.
Tuesday 10th of September
Consumer confidence in Australia surged in August 2024, reaching a six-month high of 85.0. This marked a significant turnaround from the 1.1% decline in July and far exceeded market expectations of a 0.5% rise. The increase in consumer sentiment was primarily driven by clearer signs of support from tax cuts and other fiscal measures. Additionally, concerns about further interest rate increases subsided, boosting consumer confidence.
Market participants will follow the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change for September when the data is released at 12:30 AM GMT.
The United Kingdom's unemployment rate continued its downward trend, falling to 4.2% in the period from April to June 2024. This marks a decrease from the previous period's high of 4.4% and is below market expectations. This positive development suggests a strengthening labour market in the UK.
Market participants expect the UK Unemployment Rate for July to increase to 4.5% when the data is released at 06:00 AM GMT.
Wednesday 11th of September
The British economy experienced a pause in growth in June 2024, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month. This stagnation aligns with market expectations. As investors eagerly await the release of July's UK GDP data at 6:00 AM GMT, they anticipate a slight recovery with a projected growth rate of 0.2%.
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy,continued its downward trend in July 2024. This marked the third consecutive month of easing inflation, reaching a three-year low of 3.2%. This decline from the previous month's rate of 3.3% aligned with market expectations.
In addition, the overall annual inflation rate in the U.S. also slowed for the fourth consecutive month in July 2024. The rate decreased to 2.9%, the lowest level since March 2021. This deceleration from 3% in June and exceeded market forecasts of 3%.
As traders closely watch economic indicators, they will be keenly focused on the release of both the August core inflation data and the overall inflation data, both scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT, to anticipate the next Fed’s move.
Thursday 12th of September
Australia's NAB business confidence index experienced a significant drop in July 2024, falling from a downwardly revised 3 in June to 1. This marked the lowest level since January 2023. Despite this decline, business conditions remained relatively strong, just slightly below average. The positive trend in employment was offset by a slight easing in sales.
Market analysts will closely watch the Australian economic landscape with the release of the August NAB Business Confidence data at 1:30 AM GMT.
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged in July 2024, aligning with market expectations. This decision was supported by current economic data, which reinforced the ECB's previous inflation outlook.
The key interest rates remained at their existing levels: the main refinancing operations rate at 4.25%, the deposit facility rate at 3.75%, and the marginal lending rate at 4.5%. While some inflation indicators saw temporary increases in May,most stabilised or declined in June. The inflationary impact of high wage growth has been partially offset by corporate profits, and the ECB's monetary policy continues to be restrictive.
However, domestic price pressures and services inflation remain elevated, suggesting that overall inflation is likely to stay above the ECB's target for some time into the next year. The Council reiterated its commitment to returning inflation to 2% and emphasised that it will maintain restrictive interest rates for as long as necessary to achieve this goal.
Future decisions on interest rates will be guided by ongoing economic data, underlying inflation trends, and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The ECB has stressed its flexibility and willingness to adjust rates as needed, without adhering to a predetermined path. The ECB's monetary policy decision will be announced at 12:15 PM GMT.
Factory gate prices in the United States experienced a modest increase of 0.1% month-over-month in July 2024. This followed a 0.2% rise in June and fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a 0.2% increase.
Traders will follow the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) data, scheduled for 12:30 PM GMT.
Friday 13th of September
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the United States saw a slight uptick in August 2024. The final reading of 67.9, while missing market expectations of 68, was a revision from the preliminary estimate of 67.8.
While the assessment of current economic conditions improved, the expectations index remained unchanged. Notably,consumers' inflation outlook for the coming year was revised downward, suggesting a decreased perception of future price pressures.
Looking ahead, market participants anticipate a further increase in the preliminary September reading of the Michigan consumer sentiment index, with expectations set at 77. This data is scheduled for release at 2:00 PM GMT.
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