On Monday 14th: Nothing
On Tuesday 15th: UK Unemployment Rate, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Canadian Inflation Rate YoY
On Wednesday 16th: UK Inflation Rate YoY and Japanese Balance of Trade
On Thursday 17th: European ECB Interest Rate Decision, American Retail Sales MoM, and Japanese Inflation Rate YoY
On Friday 18th: Chinese GDP Growth Rate YoY, Chinese Industrial Production YoY, Chinese Retail Sales YoY, UK Retail Sales MoM and American Building Permits Prel
Monday 14th of October
Nothing
Tuesday 15th of October
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom decreased to 4.1% from May to July 2024, down from 4.2% in the previous three-month period. This aligned with market expectations and marked the lowest level since the three months ending in January. Market participants anticipate that the UK Unemployment Rate for August will increase to 4.6%. The data is scheduled to be released at 6:00 AM GMT.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany experienced a sharp decline in September 2024, falling to 3.6 from 19.2 in August. This marked the lowest level since October 2023 and the third consecutive month of falling economic sentiment. The optimism in economic expectations that had been evident since November 2023 has almost completely dissipated. Market analysts will closely monitor the release of the ZEW Indicator for October, which is scheduled for 9:00 AM GMT.
The annual inflation rate in Canada slowed for the third consecutive month in August 2024, reaching 2%. This represented the lowest level since February 2021 and marked the first time in over three years that the inflation rate has reached the central bank's target. While market expectations were slightly higher at 2.1%, the actual figure aligned with the central bank's goal. Market participants anticipate that the Canadian Inflation Rate YoY for September will remain unchanged at 2.0% when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● LVMH
● Ericsson
● RIO TINTO
● Citigroup
● GOLDMAN SACHS
● Bank of America
● UNITEDHEALTH
● JOHNSON&JOHNSON
● United Airlines
● Walgreen Boots Alliance
Wednesday 16th of October
The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 2.2% in August 2024, matching the previous month's level and meeting market expectations. Market analysts predict that the UK Inflation Rate YoY for September will remain steady at 2.2%, with the data scheduled to be released at 6:00 AM GMT.
Japan's trade deficit narrowed to JPY 695.30 billion in August 2024, down from JPY 940.10 billion in the same month of the previous year. However, this figure was still higher than market expectations of a JPY 1,380 billion shortfall. Market participants anticipate that the Japanese Balance of Trade for September will decrease further to ¥ 300 billion, with the data set to be released at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● ASML
● Morgan Stanley
● US Bancorp
● Alcoa
● Abbott Lab
● TESLA MOTORS
Thursday 17th of October
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, easing monetary policy restrictions in response to an updated inflation outlook and improved policy transmission. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility were also lowered to 3.65% and 3.90% respectively. Market participants anticipate that the ECB will further lower interest rates from 3.65% to 3.4% when the monetary policy decision will be announced at 12:15 PM GMT.
Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.1% month-over-month in August 2024, following a revised upward revision of 1.1% in July and exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% decline. This suggests that consumer spending remains relatively strong. Market analysts predict that American Retail Sales MoM for September will continue to rise, reaching 0.2%, when the statistic is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The Japanese annual inflation rate increased to 3.0% in August 2024, up from 2.8% in the preceding three months. This marked the highest level since October 2023. Market participants anticipate that the Japanese Inflation Rate YoY for September will decline to 2.7%, with the data set to be released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Lagardere
● EssilorLuxottica
● Pernod-Ricard
● Publicis Groupe
● Sartorius
● Nestle
● TSM
● NETFLIX
● Nokia
Friday 18th of October
The Chinese economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter of 2024, growing by 4.7% year-on-year. This missed market expectations of 5.1% and represented the weakest annual growth since the first quarter of 2023. The slowdown was attributed to a persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, a falling yuan, and trade tensions with the West. Despite the slowdown, the economy grew by 5.0% during the first half of the year, and the government's target for annual GDP growth remains around 5.0%. Traders expect Chinese GDP Growth Rate YoY for Q3 to increase to 5.0% when the data is released at 02:00 AM GMT.
China's industrial production also experienced a slowdown in August 2024, rising by 4.5% year-on-year. This fell short of market forecasts of 4.8% and marked the fourth consecutive month of deceleration. Analysts expect Chinese Industrial Production YoY for September to remain unchanged at 4.5% when the data is released at 02:00 AM GMT.
Retail sales in China continued to grow but at a slower rate in August 2024, expanding by 2.1% year-on-year. This was a moderation from the previous month's growth of 2.7% and missed market expectations of 2.5%. Market participants expect Chinese Retail Sales YoY for September to increase to 2.9% when the data is released at 02:00 AM GMT.
In the United Kingdom, retail sales surged by 1% month-over-month in August 2024, following a revised upward revision of 0.7% in July. This exceeded market forecasts of 0.4% and indicated strong consumer spending. Market participants expect the rise of UK Retail Sales MoM for September to decrease to 0.4% when the data is released at 06:00 AM GMT.
Building permits in the United States increased by 4.6% in August 2024, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.470 million. This was slightly revised downward from a preliminary estimate of 1.475 million. Approvals for units in larger buildings and single-family homes saw increases. Analysts expect American Building Permits Prel for September to decrease to 1.46M when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● AMERICAN EXPRESS
● PROCTER & GAMBLE
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.