● On Monday 18th: Nothing
● On Tuesday 19th: Australian RBA Meeting Minutes, Canadian Inflation Rate YoY, American Building Permits Prel and Japanese Balance of Trade
● On Wednesday 20th: UK Inflation Rate YoY
● On Thursday 21th: Japanese Inflation Rate YoY
● On Friday 22th: UK Retail Sales MoM and French, German, European, British and American Services and Manufacturing PMI Flash
Monday 18th of November
Nothing
Tuesday 19th of November
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% for the eighth consecutive month in November. While headline inflation has shown signs of easing and is expected to remain subdued in the short term, the central bank remains vigilant about underlying inflationary pressures, which persist at elevated levels. The RBA has indicated that it will continue to monitor economic conditions closely and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed to ensure inflation returns to the target range. Minutes from this meeting will be published at 12:30 AM GMT.
Canada’s annual inflation rate decreased to 1.6% in September 2024, down from 2% in August and reaching its lowest point since February 2021, well below the market forecast of 1.9%. This marks the second consecutive month that inflation has remained under the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, prompting speculation that the central bank may extend its current rate-cutting cycle. Market analysts expect the Canadian inflation rate for October to edge up to 1.9% when the data is released at 1:30 PM GMT.
In the United States, building permits fell by 3.1% in September 2024, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.425 million, revised from an earlier estimate of 1.428 million. For October, market analysts anticipate an increase in U.S. building permits to 1.49 million, with the data scheduled for release at 1:30 PM GMT.
Japan’s trade balance swung to a deficit of ¥294.24 billion in September 2024, a significant reversal from the ¥60.56 billion surplus recorded in the same month last year. This marks the third consecutive month of trade deficits and surpassed market expectations of a ¥237.6 billion shortfall. The unexpected decline in exports coupled with rising imports contributed to the larger-than-anticipated deficit. The next release of Japan’s trade balance data for October is scheduled for 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● ThyssenKrupp
● WALMART
● Lowe’s
● BAIDU
● Dollar Tree
● Best Buy
● Medtronic
Wednesday 20th of November
The annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 1.7% in September 2024, marking its lowest level since April 2021. This decline follows two months at 2.2% and falls below market expectations of 1.9%. Analysts anticipate that the UK inflation rate for October will rise slightly to 2.0%, with the data scheduled for release at 7:00 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Target
● TJX Companies
● COMPASS
Thursday 21th of November
In Japan, the annual inflation rate fell to 2.5% in September 2024, down from 3.0% the previous month, reaching its lowest point since April. The inflation rate for October is expected to be released at 11:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
● Altri
Friday 22th of November
UK retail sales surprised to the upside, rising by 0.3% month-over-month in September 2024 after a 1% increase in August, defying forecasts of a 0.3% decline. The October retail sales data for the UK is set to be released at 7:00 AM GMT.
In October 2024, the HCOB France Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly to 44.5 from 44.6 in September, consistent with earlier estimates, marking the 21st straight month of contraction in French factory activity. The HCOB France Services PMI saw a minor upward revision to 49.2, up from the preliminary estimate of 48.3, though still lower than September’s 49.6. This marks the sharpest contraction in the French services sector since March, reflecting ongoing weak demand. The French Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI figures are scheduled for release at 8:15 AM GMT.
In Germany, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 43 in October, an improvement from the preliminary 42.6 and above September’s 12-month low of 40.6. Despite remaining in contraction, the data suggests a slower rate of decline in German manufacturing. The HCOB Germany Services PMI increased to 51.6 from September’s 50.6, surpassing preliminary estimates of 51.4. This rise signals the first expansion in five months, although demand continues to weaken. The German Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI figures will be released at 8:30 AM GMT.
For the Eurozone as a whole, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged up to 46 in October from an initial reading of 45.9, higher than September’s 45, indicating a reduced pace of contraction in manufacturing—the mildest decline since May. This marks the twenty-eighth consecutive month of contraction, the longest downturn since records began in 1997. The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose slightly to 51.6 in October from 51.4 in September, above the flash estimate of 51.2 and marginally above initial expectations of 51.5. However, new service contracts continued to decline for the second month. The Eurozone’s Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI figures will be published at 9:00 AM GMT.
In the UK, the S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.9 in October from 51.5 in September, revised from the preliminary estimate of 50.3 and falling well below market expectations of 51.4, signalling the first contraction in factory activity since April. The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised up to 52, slightly above the preliminary 51.8, though down from September’s 52.4, reflecting continued expansion in services but at a slower pace—the weakest growth since November 2023. The UK’s Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI figures are expected at 9:30 AM GMT.
In the United States, the S&P Global Flash Services PMI was revised down to 55 in October from a preliminary 55.3, slightly below September’s 55.2, though still reflecting a strong expansion in service activity. The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5, an upward revision from the preliminary 47.8, showing improvement from the 15-month low of 47.3 in September. Despite remaining in contraction, this suggests a modest easing in the downturn. The US Flash Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI figures will be published at 9:30 AM GMT.
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