On Monday 8th: The German Trade Balance is due, along with Swiss Inflation figures.
On Tuesday 9th: The Euro Area’s Unemployment Rate is published, while Canada and the US put out their Trade Balances.
On Wednesday 10th: The Australian Monthly CPI is released.
On Thursday 11th: The Australian Trade Balance, and US Inflation data is due.
On Friday 12th: Chinese Inflation figures are released, along with British GDP and US PPIs.
Weekly outlook
We’re back into the swing of things this week, and there are some important figures for investors to keep an eye on particularly with regards to Inflation. Where some countries such as China have been watching prices plummet lately, the US and Australia are still struggling to get theirs back to target levels. Monetary Policy lags continue to unfold, as they can do for around two years after the fact, but many will be wondering if further tightening will come into play this year after these reports come out. Stay tuned.
A new earnings season also kicks off this week, with some of the biggest global financial and banking institutions reporting on Friday. Of particular interest will be the results of JPMorgan Chase and Co’s fourth quarter and full year of trading. Analysts anticipate the company to disclose earnings per share of $3.64 this week, which corresponds to a yearly increase of 1.96%. The revenue forecast provided by Zacks Consensus Estimate is $38.95 billion in net sales, an increase of 12.74% compared to the same period last year.
Monday 8th of January
Driven by a stronger fall in imports relative to exports, Germany's trade surplus increased to EUR 17.8 billion in October, above market estimates of EUR 17.1 billion and up from a slightly corrected EUR 16.7 billion in the previous month. Missing the expected 0.8% growth, purchases fell 1.2% to EUR 108.6 billion, their lowest level since November 2021. When the new figures are released at 7:00 AM GMT, expectations are for a small dip to around EUR 17.2 billion.
Swiss inflation numbers are due to be confirmed today at 7:30 AM GMT. Compared to market estimates and October's 1.7%, the annual inflation rate dropped to 1.4% in November, the lowest rate since October 2021. Analysts see the December figure climbing back to around 1.5%.
Tuesday 9th of January
In line with market expectations, the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate for the Euro Area remained at 6.5% in October. Unemployment reached an eight-month high of 11.134 million, up 48,000 from the previous month, and forecasts suggest this will rise again to 6.6% when the data is released at 10:00 AM GMT.
Back in October, Canada's trade surplus was recorded at CAD 2.97 billion, higher than the CAD 1.6 billion market estimate and downgraded from CAD 1.12 billion in the previous month. It was the highest trade surplus since June 2022, as exports rose by 0.1% to CAD 65.98 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. The figures for November are due to be released at 1:30 PM GMT.
After a downwardly revised $61.2 billion in September and projections of $64.2 billion, the US trade deficit increased marginally to $64.3 billion in October, the most in three months. When the updated figures are published for November, expectations are for a slight increase in the deficit to around $64.5 billion.
Wednesday 10th of January
In the twelve months leading up to October, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 4.9%, decelerating from 5.6% in September. Softer increases in transport and housing were the primary drivers of this first annual inflation fall since July last year. A further decline to around 4.5% is predicted for this latest round of data, due at 12:30 AM GMT.
Thursday 11th of January
Australia’s Trade Balance is due at 12:30 AM GMT today. As a result of increased exports and decreased imports, the surplus on goods increased from a downwardly corrected AUD $6.18 billion in September to a revised AUD $7.13 billion in October, above market expectations of AUD $7.5 billion. A further bump to around AUD $7.5 billion is expected for November.
A range of Inflation numbers are due from the US today from 1:30 PM GMT. Back in November last year, the US annual inflation rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest level in five months, down from 3.2% in October, and in line with market expectations. Energy expenses falling was a major contributor; Fuel oil declined by 24.8%, utility gas service dropped by 10.4%, and petrol dropped by 8.9%. Meanwhile, the core rate, which does not include volatile goods like food and energy, remained at a two-year low of 4% from October to November, in line with market forecasts. Expectations are for the annual headline rate to fall slightly to 3% for December, while the core rate may remain at 4%.
Friday 12th of January
Chinese Inflation figures are due to be published at 1:30 AM GMT today. November saw a 0.5% year over year decline in consumer prices in China, which was more than the 0.2% decline in the previous month and less than the 0.1% decline predicted by the market. The CPI fell at its quickest rate since November 2020. Headline Inflation prices are expected to fall 0.7% for December while Producer Prices are also set to fall by 3.2% for the same period.
British GDP data will be made available from 7:00 AM GMT today. In October, the British economy contracted 0.3% from September, reversing the growth trend of the preceding two months and falling short of market expectations owing mostly to declines in the services industry. 0.1% growth month over month is forecast for November.
In November, US producer prices were flat at 0% after a 0.4% decline in the prior month and falling short of predictions of a 0.1% increase. The core PPI also saw no adjustment in the same month. When the new results are released at 1:30 PM GMT, the forecast is for 0.2% growth for both the core and headline PPIs for December.
Major Earnings Releases:
● UnitedHealth
● JP Morgan
● Bank of America
● Wells Fargo & Co
● BlackRock
● Citigroup
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