On Monday 12th: British GDP, Manufacturing Production MoMs, and the Trade Balance are due to be published.
On Tuesday 13th: UK employment figures are due, German CPI and ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released, and US CPI data is published.
On Wednesday 14th: The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index is released, UK CPI data is due, the Fed meets on Monetary Policy, and New Zealand GDP is published.
On Thursday 15th: Australian Employment data is due, the Chinese Industrial Production reports are published, the Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all meet on monetary policy, and the US publishes retail data and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index.
On Friday 16th: The UK Retail Sales data is due, Manufacturing and Services PMIs for France, Germany and the EU are reported, and EU CPI data is released.
Weekly outlook
A huge week for economic releases this week. Most notably centered around the final Central Bank monetary policy meetings of the year for the UK, EU, Switzerland, and the US and the CPI data releases that will be published before and after them.
Many will be watching to see whether these meetings will result in more pain for households coming into what should be the festive season. The combination of interest rate increases plus inflation remaining stubborn has proved burdensome for retailers across the board so far, but there appears to be more to come to hopefully avoid inflation becoming more entrenched long term.
Monday 12th of December
The UK releases a number of economic data today, including GDP for the past quarter, Industrial and Manufacturing Production MoMs, and the Trade Balance, among others.
Expectations are for a further drop in the GDP from the previous -0.2% as natural gas costs, a slow recovery from the pandemic, and low investment and productivity endure. Industrial Production is forecast to drop from 0.2% to -0.2%, while Manufacturing Production is expected to increase from -1.1% to -0.4%.
The UK Trade Balance is expected to have dropped further from -15.66B to -18.75B.
Tuesday 13th of December
UK employment figures are released on Tuesday, with the Average Earnings including bonuses expected to have dipped for October from 6.0% to 5.9%. The Claimant Count Change and Unemployment rate number are also due.
From Germany, two important economic releases are due, including CPI data, which will hopefully show tightening monetary policy is having a positive effect on inflation. Expectations are currently for it to remain at around 10.0%.
Also the ZEW Economic Sentiment, which has been improving of late. A forecast of -27.5 is still in pessimistic territory, but closer to 0 than the -61.9 it was at its worst reading this year.
The US is also due to publish its CPI data today. Inflation has been gradually coming to heal in recent months, now down to 7.7% year on year. The Fed will be paying close attention to this report as it decides on the future of interest rates at its upcoming meeting the following day.
Wednesday 14th of December
The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, which measures business conditions for large Japanese manufacturing enterprises, is due on Wednesday. A negative index number implies worsening circumstances, whereas a positive score shows improvement. Expectations are for a jump from 8 down to 11 for the fourth quarter.
The UK will report its CPI data today, with expectations for a welcome drop from 11.1% to 10.7% for the month of November year on year. The Bank of England meets the following day to set the Bank Rate, and will be taking this number into account when deciding whether to continue frontloading hikes or slow the pace.
The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will vote to determine the target interest rate in their monetary policy meeting today. Expectations are for another 50 basis points jump, up to 4.50% after the latest jobs report last month. The report showed US employment increased more than anticipated and monthly salaries increased at their fastest rate since January.
For its third quarter report, New Zealand's GDP is expected to drop from 1.7% to 1.0% as monetary tightening hurts domestic demand. The increase in international tourism and the decrease in demand for imports should make up for it in terms of gross domestic product in the long term.
Thursday 15th of December
Employment information from Australia is expected to show a drop in the change of the number of employed persons from 32K to 15K, while the Unemployment rate is forecast to remain at all time lows of 3.4%.
China will release key Industrial Production data today for the month of November year on year. Expectations are for a decline in the total value of output from 5.0% to 3.8%.
The governing board of the Swiss National Bank will meet to decide where the target range for interest rates should be set for the fourth quarter. So far this year rates have risen from -0.75% to 0.50%.
Both the European Central Bank and the Band of England will also meet during the day for their monetary policy decisions. Both are expected to raise their headline rates by 50 basis points to 2.50% and 3.50% respectively having been plagued by stubborn high inflation that hovers well above their 2% target range.
The US retail sector will release several reports today ahead of what is expected to be a subdued holiday season. These include the Core Retail Sales for November, which are forecast to be down from 1.3% to 0.3%, while Retail Sales including vehicles are expected to be down from 1.30% to -0.1% for the month of November compared to October.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index evaluates business conditions among Federal Reserve district manufacturers. The index indicates improvement above zero and worsens conditions below 0. An increase from -19.4 to -6.2 for December.
Friday 16th of December
Several reports related to the British retail sector will be released today. Predictions are for quieter than usual pre-Christmas sales, as inflation lingers and interest rates climb. Retail sales for November compared to last year are expected to decline from -6.1% to -6.5%.
Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due for France, Germany and the EU, with all expected to remain below 50, showing contraction in the sectors.
The EU will release its CPI data today, which is expected to show inflation is staying put at 10.0% for November, year on year despite interest rates climbing.
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