DAX Bulls on a Tight Leash: The 25,000 Milestone Remains a Tough Nut to Crack
The German blue-chip index remains in a tense holding pattern at an elevated level. The long-awaited, sustainable breakout above the psychologically critical 25,000-point mark simply refuses to materialize for now. Nevertheless, there is a silver lining regarding investor sentiment: following the violent price gyrations of previous weeks, market participants appear to have notably stabilized. On Wednesday, the DAX finished the session at 24,856.15 points, representing a moderate decline of 0.53%.
The Labor Market Dilemma: Strong Data as a Stumbling Block
The fact that the equity market isn't charging ahead with full force can primarily be explained by looking across the Atlantic. The latest US labor market data (NFP) came in significantly stronger than anticipated, with approximately 130,000 new jobs created compared to the expected 70,000. While this is a blessing for the economy, the stock market views it with suspicion: concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve will act much more conservatively regarding future interest rate cuts than the market had hoped.
Interestingly, the DAX continues to show relative strength. If the market were fully pricing in this "restriction anxiety," prices should theoretically be significantly lower. The fact that they aren't points to a healthy underlying resilience. The big question now is: which event will trigger the next genuine impulse?
Showdown Friday Afternoon: US Inflation Data in the Crosshairs
Another economic heavyweight is lurking this week: the release of US Consumer Prices (inflation) Friday afternoon. Alongside the labor market, this is the decisive criterion for central banks as they cement the interest rate path for 2026. Core inflation is expected to land at 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous month. Should there be a surprise here, the current calm could end abruptly.
Technical Summary: The Calm Before the Storm?
Everything points toward a narrow trading range for today's session. Market participants are likely to hold back until the US inflation data hits the wires at 2:30 PM CET. Technically, the zone around 24,710 points remains a vital support level. As long as this floor holds, the primary objective—reclaiming the 25,000 mark—remains firmly in sight.
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