Christmas Presents at the Stock Exchange? DAX Starts Christmas Week with Optimism
While many investors and institutional players have already headed off for their well-deserved Christmas break, the trading floor in Frankfurt is by no means deserted. The DAX is starting the last full trading week of the year with a healthy dose of optimism. After the positive inflation data from the previous week and the "Triple Witching Hour" last Friday provided significant tailwinds, the signs are good that the bulls will keep a firm grip on the reins until Christmas Eve. At the start of trading, the index stabilized confidently above the psychologically important 24,000-point mark.
Thin Volume, Big Impact: The Dynamics of the "Santa Rally"
However, investors should not be deceived by the perceived calm. Although many "big players" have already closed their trading books for 2025, this is precisely what makes Christmas week special: since trading volume is significantly lower than usual, even relatively small orders can trigger unexpectedly strong price movements. In a market environment that is already positively biased, this often leads to a "coasting" effect upward, with the DAX cautiously eyeing its record high of approximately 24,770 points.
The outlook for 2026 acts as an additional catalyst. Expectations of pro-business interest rate developments are fueling hopes for a renaissance in the struggling construction industry, as well as continued growth in the IT sector and the banking industry.
Bayer and Siemens Energy: Two Heavyweights in Focus
Among individual stocks, Bayer remains the number one topic of conversation. The recent recovery trend is impressive; driven by hopes for a near end to the glyphosate litigation in the US, the stock is now targeting the €40 mark. A breakthrough here could release further technical potential.
At the same time, Siemens Energy remains a "hot iron." The stock was one of the big winners last Friday. Here, the classic question arises: will the momentum trade continue, or will investors use these quiet days for profit-taking to lock in the "fat gains" of the year?
Light Economic Calendar: Today's Key Data
The agenda for economic data is sparse today, which is typical for the pre-Christmas period. Nevertheless, two points should be noted:
USA (2:30 PM CET): The CFNA Index (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) will provide an indication of the overall US economic situation. A strong reading could dampen interest rate hopes, while a weak reading could support the rally.
Europe: Stable GDP data already released from the UK ensures a quiet regional environment without disruptive factors.
Bottom Line: The DAX has the 24,000 mark firmly at its back. Everything points to a friendly end to the year, as long as no unforeseen geopolitical news disturbs the holiday peace.
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