St. Nicholas Rally in Sight? DAX Scratches at 24,000 – Positive US Signals Boost Confidence
The DAX is inching its way upward and is once again targeting the magical 24,000-point mark. Crossing this mark today, Friday, would be a positive weekly close and a signal to investors that the Christmas rally is not yet canceled ahead of St. Nicholas Day (Nikolaustag). Yesterday, Thursday, the DAX closed with a gain of 0.79 percent at 23,882.03 points, creating the necessary basis to spark euphoria around the magical 24,000-point level. This optimistic mood is largely driven by the expectation of an easing of US monetary policy.
Rate Cut Fantasy Driven by Weak US Labor Market
Although the official US labor market data is not being released as usual today, the market interpreted Wednesday's weak ADP labor figures combined with the disappointing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the service sector as a clear signal: the probability of a US interest rate cut has risen again. This anticipation is now being priced in, directly influencing the DAX.
Auto Stocks Soar: US Fuel Relaxation and Analysts Drive Gains
Among individual stocks, automotive shares surged yesterday. The top 3 in the DAX were the shares of Daimler Truck Holding, Porsche, and the Mercedes-Benz Group. BMW and Volkswagen also took the fourth and fifth spots. This optimism was triggered by Bank of America analysts and the US President's statement that the strict requirements for fuel consumption in the United States could be relaxed. This promises manufacturers easier market access.
DAX Before Decisive Breakthrough: Seasonality Supports the Rally
Technically, everything is set for the DAX to move past the much-cited 100-day moving average again. Should the index close above 24,000 points by the weekend, it could be the starting signal for another positive trading week to come. While one should not praise the day before evening, seasonality has once again proven that the week after Thanksgiving is very often positive for stock markets, strengthening the arguments for the rally's continuation.
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