Holiday Lull on the Exchange: DAX on Standby Before the 100-Day Test
Thursday was marked by the holiday lull on US exchanges, which was reflected in subdued trading activity. The DAX managed a slight gain in the morning before trading pressure subsided in the afternoon. The closing price was 23,767.96 points, corresponding to a marginal gain of 0.18 percent, suggesting a cautiously positive end to the week. Investors are now anxiously awaiting today's Friday, which carries specific risks due to the low volume and the early closing of US exchanges.
Caution on "Black Friday": Illiquidity Increases Risk of Erratic Jumps
Similar low trading volume is expected from the US today for "Black Friday." Although markets are active, US exchanges traditionally close earlier. For the DAX, this illiquidity in the afternoon means an increased risk of erratic price jumps or swift movements in both directions, as even small orders can cause significant swings.
Despite the subdued overall market, cyclical and growth-heavy stocks once again dominated the winning side: Infineon gained 2.6 percent despite the low volume, and Siemens Energy shares rose by another roughly 2 percent. The continued strength of these heavyweights is a positive signal for the structural recovery of the index.
DAX Before Final Hurdle: The 100-Day Average is the Target
Technically, the DAX has successfully stabilized above the 20-day average and is now situated in a critical zone. Investors are looking directly at the next major resistance: the 100-day moving average, which awaits them at around 23,950 points. Overcoming this mark is essential for a sustainable continuation of the upward movement.
Positive indicators, such as a healthy-looking Relative Strength Index (RSI), technically set the stage for further gains, as nothing currently impedes an advance. Should the index break the resistance before the weekend, it would be a strong signal that supports the seasonal hopes for the December effect and massively increases the chances of a final sprint before the holidays. The short-term challenge now lies in navigating the volatility of the low-volume Friday.
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