At the Turning Point of Correction: Reversal in the DAX or Further Plunge?
Another week of high tension awaits investors in the DAX. Will the hoped-for reversal finally arrive in the last week of November, or will the index continue to lose ground in the current correction? The brief bright spot provided by Nvidia has failed to dispel the fundamental concerns. The market repeatedly finds interpretations that turn seemingly positive news into a worrisome light.
The current concerns:
Rate Worries: Strong US labor market data could lead the Federal Reserve to avoid further interest rate cuts.
Tech Bubble: High valuations of US technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector, fuel speculation about a looming speculative bubble (drawing parallels to the 2000 crash).
Ukraine Peace Plan Comes into Focus: New Impulses for the DAX?
In the current trading week, the political struggle for peace in Ukraine could once again dominate the investor agenda. The US government expects feedback from Kyiv on the proposed US peace plan by Thursday, while diplomatic lines are running hot to exert European influence. A lasting peace in Ukraine and the possible lifting of sanctions could provide massive impetus:
Reconstruction: The associated reconstruction of Ukraine promises strong business opportunities for DAX companies.
Russia Business: The Russian business segment could potentially be rebuilt in the future.
Chance for Recovery: Downtrend Remains Technically Intact
Thanks to the recovery of the US markets on Friday, the DAX receives a new chance this week to end the correction. Technically, signs are increasing for an extended recovery northward, as the low from last Thursday's trading was not undercut on Friday. If investors manage to push the DAX above Thursday's high, the chances for a recovery are good.
However, the downtrend technically remains active for now. Only when the 100-day moving average (currently around 650 points or 3 percent away from the current DAX price) can be sustainably overcome can a definitive all-clear be given.
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