The Hesitation is Over: DAX Above 24,000 – Is the Year-End Rally Starting?
The DAX is proving resilient, showing no concern over the ongoing US government shutdown or signals of a cooling US economy. Yesterday, Wednesday, the German blue-chip index appears to have broken the ice, overcoming the resistance of the September high. The index climbed back above the 24,000-point mark for the first time. Closing at 24,113.62 points with a daily gain of 0.98 percent, the DAX is sending a powerful signal to investors: the year-end rally may be imminent.
Market Euphoria Ahead of Rate Cut: Next Fed Move Deemed Certain
The current market strength is closely tied to expectations regarding US monetary policy. The CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool now puts the probability of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in late October at an astounding 99 percent. This near-certain expectation fuels hopes that the year-end rally has either already begun or is just around the corner. However, investors should critically scrutinize this certainty: should the Fed fail to meet these high expectations, a dramatic sell-off is possible and must be factored into risk management.
Merck, Bayer, and Siemens Energy Lead the Charge
Wednesday's surge in the DAX was primarily driven by three heavyweights: Merck shot up by an impressive 10.1 percent following a US deal with Pfizer, triggering genuine investor euphoria. Bayer gained 5 percent, and Siemens Energy stock rose by 4.8 percent. This strong performance across individual stocks, particularly the recovery of cyclical and technology-related names, signals broad-based buying appetite.
DAX Gaining Momentum: Is an All-Time High Possible in 2025?
Given the strong momentum, including post-market trading, all signs point to the positive trend continuing into Thursday. The DAX now has the opportunity to take another decisive step toward its all-time high. If successful, this would be a clear indication that investors can anticipate further records before the end of the year. The stage appears to be set for a historically strong year-end finish.
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