In-depth Analysis

Focus on RBNZ meeting

  • On Monday 21st: German PPI (MoM) (Oct), BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks 
  • On Tuesday 22nd: RBA Governor Lowe Speaks, Canadian Retail Sales, Manufacturing Sales, BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks, German Buba President Nagel Speaks, FOMC Members George, and Bullard Speak,
  • On Wednesday 23rd: RBNZ monetary policy decision, UK PMI, European and American PMI figures, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, US Building Permits, US Home sales, FOMC meeting minutes
  • On Thursday 24th: German IFO Business Climate
  • On Friday 25th: Tokyo Core CPI, German GDP

Monday 21st of November

The Bank of England’s Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe, is due to speak at a Forum on central bank digital currencies. Investors will be watching for clues of the future direction of monetary policy for the BoE.

The German Producer Price Index will show how the prices for raw and semi-finished materials are tracking for the month of October. Increased costs are usually passed on to the consumer and impacts CPI figures. German PPI is expected to go from 2.3% to 0.9%.

Major Earnings Reports due:

  • Dell Technologies Inc

Tuesday 22nd of November

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe is due to attend and speak at the Annual Committee for Economic Development of Australia Dinner. His speech, which is titled, “Price Stability, the Supply Side and Prosperity,” will be followed by investors looking for insight into the future direction of monetary policy for the RBA.

Canada is due to publish a number of retail sales data today, including its Core and Retail sales numbers for the month of September. Core sales that exclude vehicles are expected to have dropped from 0.7% to 0.4%, while retails sales are looking at a dip from 0.7% to 0.2%.

Several members of the Federal Reserve FOMC will make speeches during the day, including Loretta Mester, Ester George and James Bullard. 

Major Earnings Reports due:

  • Analog Devices Inc
  • Dollar-Tree Inc
  • Autodesk Inc
  • Hewlett Packard
  • Best Buy Co
  • Baidu Inc

Wednesday 23rd of November

Mortgage owners in New Zealand will be bracing for the RBNZ to raise interest rates yet again during its monetary policy meeting today. The latest installment is expected to be 75 basis points for a total of 400 points increased this year. Annual inflation was sitting at 7.2% after the latest data was published in October. 

Several Purchasing Managers Indexes are due for the Manufacturing and Service industries, as well as some Composite PMI from the EU, US, and UK today. A level above 50 shows positive for growth in the sector, while below 50 is indicative of contraction. 

Results are mixed, but generally heading towards contraction. Most notably, German Manufacturing is expected to continue declining from 45.1 to 45.0, EU Manufacturing is looking at a drop from 46.4 to 46.0, and a lot of attention will be paid to the UK as its economy continues to struggle, as the country publishes its Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMIs.

There are a number of releases from the US today, including Building Permits, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and US Crude Oil Inventories for the week. The Federal Reserve will publish its minutes from the last FOMC meeting for a look at the board’s reasoning for its most recent interest rate hike.

US Building permits have been trending down this year, from 1.8373M in January to 1.526M in October, indicating a slowdown in new housing projects being granted by the government. New Home Sales have also been very mixed, previous figures were lower than expected at -10.9%.

US Orders for Core Durable Goods are expected to be up from -0.5% to 0.2% for the month of October, giving an indication into the ordering trends coming into the holiday season. 

Thursday 24th November

Germany publishes its IFO Business Climate Index, for insight into the collective sentiment towards business conditions across Germany. The survey has shown a downward optimism trend, dipping to 84.3 last month. Forecasts are for slight improvement at 85 for November, despite the country facing a tough winter with exponential energy prices and high inflation.

Friday 25th of November

Japan will release annual Tokyo Core CPI data for November, where it is expected that the figure will have risen slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%. Japan still maintains negative interest rates despite its CPI moving above the central bank’s 2% target.

Quarterly and annual German GDP data is also released today for the third quarter. Figures are expected to stay stable at 1.1% and 0.3% respectively. 

 

 

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