In-depth Analysis

Focus on GDP and inflation data

 

On Monday 26th: German GDP data and IFO Business Climate Index are released today, while ECB President Lagarde is due to speak.

On Tuesday 27th: The U.S. releases its Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales reports.

On Wednesday 28th: Fed Chair Jay Powell and later ECB President Christine Lagarde are due to speak at separate conferences, Australian Retail Sales reporting is due, and the U.S. releases both its Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

On Thursday 29th: The U.S. publishes GDP data, GDP Index, and Initial Jobless Claims, Canadian GDP is released, and RBNZ Governor Orr is due to speak.

On Friday 30th: China releases its PMI data, British GDP figures are due, Germany publishes its employment figures, the Eurozone updates its CPI, and the U.S. releases data for Core Personal Consumption Expenditure. 

Weekly outlook

 

It’s the final week of the quarter this week, and investors can expect some key economic updates, and a few notable speeches by central bank governors in the coming week.

 

The U.S. has a big week of economic news after last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates another 75 basis points. Figures from Consumer Confidence Reports, GDP data, and the Core Personal Consumption reports will be closely watched by the Fed for insight into the impact of tightening policy. Fed Governor Powell is also due to give remarks at an event in Missouri on Wednesday.

Monday 26th of September

 

Germany publishes both its GDP data today and the IFO Business Climate Index among others. 

 

GDP is expected to be unchanged on the month at 0.1% and on the year at 1.8%, while the IFO – which gives insight into how businesses feel about current and future conditions using a composite index from a survey of around 9,000 participants – is expected to have dropped again to 87, from 88.5.

 

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to give an introductory statement today at a hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

Tuesday 27th of September

From the U.S. comes a number of economic releases today, namely the Core Durable Goods Orders, which is a measure of the difference in the total value of new purchase orders for the manufacturing of long-lasting products, excluding transport. This is expected to be unchanged for August compared to July at 0.2%. Durable goods with the inclusion of vehicles are expected to be down to -0.5% from -0.1%

 

Consumer Confidence in the U.S. is said to be slightly up for September, with 104 forecast from 103.2. A positive number indicates a tendency to spend more and improve economic health.

 

New Home Sales report for the U.S. is also due and is expected to be reduced from 511k to 500k over the month of August.

Wednesday 28th of September

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is scheduled to give opening remarks at the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri via video. Investors will watch it to get clues about future Fed decisions and other economic news.

 

Australia’s Retail Sales for the month of August are forecast to be down from 1.3% to 0.3%, a sign that monetary policy tightening is having its desired effect on consumer spending.

 

ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in a discussion at the Frankfurt Forum on US-European GeoEconomics which is organized by the Atlantic Council.

 

The U.S. publishes its Pending Home Sales report for insight into how many homes have been sold but are awaiting financing to complete the transaction. This is expected to be unchanged over the month of August at 0.1%.

 

Crude Oil Inventories from the U.S., which measures the difference in the weekly stores held by firms in the U.S., will be released today.

Thursday 29th of September

 

Widely anticipated GDP data is released from the U.S. today from the second quarter compared to the first. This is forecast to be unchanged at -0.6%. The GDP Price Index will measure the annualized change in the price of products and services in GDP and is expected to have dropped from 9.0% to 8.9%.

 

Again from the U.S., the Initial jobless claims will reportedly show an increase of newly unemployed persons in the past week from 213k to 215k.

 

Canada publishes its GDP data for July, with an expected drop from 0.1% to -0.1%.

 

The RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr is expected to be included in a panel discussion hosted by the Bank of Lithuania and Bank for International Settlements titled “Maintaining central bank independence in the face-off fiscal dominance risks, expanding central bank mandates, and other challenges.” 

 

Investors will be watching for insight into the thought process of the central bank come to its October 5th meeting on Monetary Policy.

Friday 30th of September

 

China releases its various Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) today for a look at the purchases and activities of purchasing managers from various sectors, namely manufacturing. 

 

A figure above 50 is said to be positive for the sector, but below 50 shows a contraction in the industry. The Manufacturing PMI for September is expected to drop from 49.4 to 49.2, and the Caixin Manufacturing is forecast to increase from 49.5 to 50.2.

 

Great Britain is set to publish its annual and quarterly GDP data with an expectation that the quarterly figure will remain unchanged at -0.1%.

 

Germany releases its Unemployment Change report from August, with an expected drop from 28k to 20k from the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 5.5%.

 

The Eurozone is awaiting CPI data for the month of September for a view of the impact of tightening monetary policy on inflation. It’s expected to still be climbing from the previous 9.1% to 9.6% from the previous year. The Unemployment Rate in the bloc is expected to also remain at 6.6%.

 

The closely watched Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index from the U.S. records the difference in the price of essential consumer goods and services, with the exclusion of food and energy. For August this is expected to show an increase from 0.1% to 0.4%.

 

 

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