In-depth Analysis

Corporate earnings season kicks off with large American banks

 

  • On Monday 10th: Fed’s Lael Brainard due to speak
  • On Tuesday 11th: Australian Business and Consumer confidence reports are due, and employment data is published from the UK, while BOE Gov Bailey is due to speak.
  • On Wednesday 12th: The UK releases GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, and Trade Balance reports, President Lagarde of the ECB makes a speech, while PPI reporting and FOMC meeting minutes from the US are released.
  • On Thursday 13th: CPI from US and Germany is published, with Initial Jobless Claims from the US.
  • On Friday 14th: Chinese CPI, PPI, and Trade Balance data is released, while the US publishes Retail Sales info.

Weekly outlook

It’s the start of corporate earnings season this week, and many major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Citigroup, will disclose their Q3 results. Results from other significant companies including PepsiCo, TSMC, and UnitedHealth are also due to be announced. Stay tuned to profit from all trading opportunities!

This week will see the release of important figures on retail sales, consumer confidence, and producer & consumer inflation in the US and abroad.The FOMC’s most recent policy meeting, which took place September 20–21, will have meeting minutes available on Wednesday, and many investors will be keeping a close eye on prominent policymakers as they make public remarks this week at various events in the US.

Monday 10th of October

It’s a bank holiday in the US today, as they observe Columbus Day. At the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Chicago, Lael Brainard of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to make a speech titled “Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment.”

Tuesday 11th of October

Australia releases its NAB Business confidence report for September and the Westpac Consumer Confidence report for October today, for a look at how the public and businesses feel about the state of the economy.

From the UK, a number of employment reports are released today, including the Average Earnings Index and Bonuses, which is expected to have risen to 5.9%, up from 5.5% for August. 

The Claimant Count Change, which measures the number of people over the month that have claimed for unemployment insurance, is expected to drop from 6.3K to 4.2K. 

The Employment Change for the three months ending August compared to last year is forecast to be down from 40K to -127K, and lastly the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged again for August, at 3.6%.

The Bank of England’s Governor Bailey is also due to speak during a discussion at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC.  

Major Earnings Report due:

  • PepsiCo

Wednesday 12th of October

Another busy day for data releases from the UK with its GDP figures, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance reports. 

Month on month GDP is expected to have dropped from 0.2% to 0.0%, while Industrial Production and Manufacturing are expected to have increased slightly for the month of August from -0.3% to -0.2% and from 0.1% to 0.2% respectively. The balance of trade is forecast to continue to widen from -19.36B to -20.45B.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak during a discussion at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting in Washington DC. 

From the US, the monthly Producer Price Index for September is released, which gives insight into the difference between the prices of raw goods and services, which eventually impacts consumer prices. This is unsurprisingly on the rise, expected to be up from -0.1% to 0.2%.

The minutes from the Monetary Policy Meeting held by the FOMC from late September are also released today.

Thursday 13th of October

Highly anticipated CPI data is released from the US today, as well as from Germany. Germany’s September numbers are expected to remain the same at 1.9% and the annual rate is also forecast to be unmoved at 10.0%. 

Core CPI, which is mostly everything minus food and energy expenses for the US, is expected to have increased for September compared to last year from 6.3% to 6.5%, while forecasts predict a slight drop from August’s 0.6% to 0.5% in September. Overall CPI is expected to have dropped slightly from 8.3% to 8.1% year-on-year up to September figures, while compared to August it is thought to have increased from 0.1% to 0.2%.

Initial Jobless claims for the week in the US are expected to have increased from 219K to 225K.

Major Earnings Reports due:

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co
  • BlackRock Inc
  • Infosys Limited
  • Progressive Corp
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc
  • Delta Airlines

Friday 14th of October

China releases its CPI, PPI, and Trade Balance info today. 

CPI is thought to be increasing from -0.1% month on month to 0.3%, while for September the annual CPI is expected to have increased to 2.8% from 2.5%. The Producer Price Index is expected to have dropped from 2.3% to 1.0% for September year-on-year. The Trade Balance is expected to have grown again for September from 79.39B to 81.30B. 

The US publishes its Retail Sales data today. For the month of September, it is forecast that sales have dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%, indicating tightening monetary policy may be finally hitting its mark on consumer spending. Core Retail Sales, which excludes transportation, is expected to have also improved from -0.3% to -0.1% for the month of September.

Major Earnings Reports due:

  • UnitedHealth
  • JP Morgan Chase & Co
  • Wells Fargo & Co
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Citigroup
  • PNC Financial Services
  • US Bancorp
  • HDFC Bank Ltd
  • Bank of America Corp

 

 

 

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