Date: 15 Feb 2019
The market for the Turkish lira has become quiet. Just a few months ago the big investors were playing with the currency, and the politics between Ankara and Washington were heating up.
The 200-day line is still shaken by the sharp upward movement of the market in August 2018. This can distort the interpretation of the 200-day line, and we still have to take that into account when we look at this.
So for a short-term view, it is better to look at a combination of the 38-day smoothing and the 10-day smoothing.
At the end of January, the short-term 10-day line broke through the longer-term 38-day line from top to bottom. The market is currently trading between the two lines. With yesterday’s candle, the USDTRY tried to regain the terrain of the 38-day line.
The MACD crossed its trigger line from bottom to top earlier this week, which is positive.
If the USDTRY can regain the jump above the 38-day line’s key support, it can lay the foundation for a possible rally.
For a broad rally, however, the USD/TRY needs to close above the smoothing short-term lines and the highs of the last few days at 5.358, even if the chances of a short-term floor are good. Then prices in the 5.469 range may be possible.
If the market drops, the first support could be in the 5.24 range and then wait at 5.165. However, if the market fails here and the bears take the wheel, the picture could cloud over, and the market could drop through to the area of 4,950.
USDTRY Daily Chart | Source: ActivTrader
Written by Daniel Schuetz, External Analyst
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