Market Analysis

The Pound is down by 0.7%

FOREX/BREXIT

The Pound is down by 0.7% from the 8-month high of $1.3214 reached on Tuesday. This price action follows the publication of the most recent poll, which shows the Conservative majority shrinking to half its previous size. According to the latest large survey of British voters, Boris Johnson is still likely to obtain a majority, albeit a much smaller one. Most importantly, such a result is now within the statistical margin of error and another hung parliament cannot be ruled out. The recent support found by Sterling arose from expectations of a Conservative majority in parliament that would deliver a swift withdrawal from Europe, followed by constructive negotiations with the EU over a post-Brexit trade deal. Another divided parliament would be likely to prolong the uncertainty over the outcome of Brexit, representing more downside risk for the Pound.

Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades


OIL 

The oil price is continuing its dance close to the key level of $59, while investors are waiting for new market movers. These could arrive from the Federal Reserve or news on the trade war talks. From a technical point of view the trend remains positive, with the price capable of further acceleration if WTI can break through the resistance at $59. Following the recent OPEC+ agreement there is moderate optimism, despite fears about how well countries will adhere adherence to the deal.

Carlo Alberto De Casa – Chief analyst, ActivTrades

 

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